Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have steadily grown in recent months. And divisive incidents have become almost a weekly occurrence.. On Friday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry promised " At the same time, Baku did not specify what kind of actions they are talking about..

A few hours earlier, Azerbaijan arrested six of its citizens accused of having links with Iranian intelligence services and preparing a coup d'etat in the Caspian country.. It was the latest in a series of arrests in recent months.. Moreover, Baku links all suspects with Tehran, Aljazeera writes..

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has become a close ally of Iran's historical rival Turkey. He criticized Tehran after a man stormed the Azerbaijani embassy in the Iranian capital in late January, killing the security chief and injuring other workers.. Iran said diplomatic relations should not be affected as the incident was the work of a lone shooter for personal reasons. But Aliyev closed the embassy after condemning the "

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Azerbaijan has also criticized Tehran for allegedly supporting Armenia in a decades-long conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.. On the other hand, Iran, home to millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis, has long accused Azerbaijan of fueling separatist sentiment on its northwestern border..

Israeli factor.

But even with all the differences in bilateral relations, it is perhaps the rapid development of Azerbaijan's relations with Israel that irritates the Iranian government most of all.. Tehran increasingly warns Baku against rapprochement with Tel Aviv. The furious rhetoric reached new heights last month after top diplomats from Israel and Azerbaijan discussed "

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov was in Tel Aviv at the opening of his country's embassy after the appointment of Baku's first-ever ambassador to Israel. This new approach, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned, could pose a threat to Iran's national security that cannot be ignored..

The majority of politicians in the Iranian parliament also condemned Azerbaijan's move, stressing in a statement that "

According to Tehran analyst on the Caucasus and Central Asia, Vali Kalleji, there are different reasons and goals behind the strengthening of ties between Azerbaijan and Israel, not all of which are directly related to Iran.. In an interview with Aljazeera, the expert explained that from a political point of view, Baku needs a Jewish lobby to counter Armenian influence in the West, especially in the United States.. And from the economic point of view, Azerbaijan is the main supplier of oil for Israel.

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“From a military point of view, the Republic of Azerbaijan, due to the influence of the Armenian diaspora, is not able to ensure peace and receive modern military equipment from European countries and America.. In such a situation, Turkey, Israel and Pakistan have become the three main sources of Azerbaijan's military needs,” Kalleji said, adding that this is Iran's main concern..

Will there be a war?

Tensions between Baku and Tehran are increasingly manifesting themselves in military uniforms, with both sides flexing their muscles in exercises that are seen as a direct warning..

Both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian army have conducted several rounds of exercises in the northwestern regions of the country and near the border with Azerbaijan since the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, demonstrating their ground and air capabilities. The most serious of these occurred in October last year, when the IRGC first built a pontoon bridge across the Aras River, which forms the long border between Iran and Azerbaijan..

A few days later, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian visited the southernmost Armenian province of Syunik to send another direct signal to Azerbaijan and Turkey by opening a consulate and stating that Armenia's security is equal to Iranian security..

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The move was aimed at countering the Zangezur Corridor that Baku and Ankara want to create between the Nakhichevan exclave and other Azerbaijani territory.. This will effectively cut off the main Iranian transit link with the South Caucasus.. Like the ebb and flow of tensions between Tehran and Baku over the past three decades, the current escalation could eventually lead to a cycle of de-escalation, Kalleji said..

“Although the recent tensions are very serious, there are many factors that prevent military conflict, including economic and trade interdependence, transit routes between Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia, and Azerbaijan’s dependence on Iranian routes leading to Nakhichevan,” he said..

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He also noted that diplomatic channels remain open through the Azerbaijani consulate in Tabriz, in addition to the Iranian embassy in Baku and the consulate in Nakhichevan, despite the closure of the embassy in Tehran.. Turkey and Russia (the latter is getting closer to Iran after the start of the war against Ukraine) can act as intermediaries, just as China is now playing this role in restoring ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, an Iranian expert believes.

“However, the fact is that Turkey and Russia, unlike Iran, do not perceive the role of Israel in Azerbaijan, the Zangezur corridor and the situation on the Iranian-Armenian border as a threat,” he said, adding that the first step would be to understand these problems..