If before the increase in the official hryvnia exchange rate in July 2022, the gap between it and cash reached 28%, and at the peak of the cash rate in September it was 16+%, now this difference is already less than 2%. Yury Gaidai, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic Strategy, commented on how such dynamics can be explained..

" It is in the cash market, which, let me remind you, is now delimited from the interbank market,"

Also, in his opinion, this trend is supported by:.

Decrease in demand for cash currency among the population due to the possibility of buying non-cash currency with subsequent placement on a deposit. Foreign currency deposits are growing dynamically.

Absence of hryvnia issue since the end of last year.

An increase in supply due to the seasonal sale of foreign currency by farmers who were preparing for the sowing campaign and needed hryvnia cash.

The latest monthly NBU survey (Business Expectations Index) shows an increase in positive business expectations. In trade, 38% expect an increase in trade, only 17% expect a decrease. In industry, 32% expect an increase in orders, 18% - a decrease. Accordingly, expecting growth, entrepreneurs can sell foreign currency to replenish working capital.. And the shady part of the business does it in the cash market.

Compliance by commercial banks with financial monitoring standards throughout the "

The last point, according to Yuri Gaidai, is the result of a "

“I admit, although there is no evidence that stubborn compliance with the norms of financial monitoring under the fear of terrible biblical punishments also significantly and positively affected both cashlessness (NBU currency sales in March decreased by 32%, to “only” $1.67 billion), and cash.