The hryvnia continues to rise in price against the dollar and the euro. Existing factors point to further strengthening of the hryvnia, but the situation could change quickly. Focus writes about whether it is worth buying currency now.

According to experts, in the next few months, the hryvnia in the cash market will approach the fixed official rate of the NBU, which has been 36.57 UAH/USD since July 2022.. There are several prerequisites for this:.

approval of a four-year IMF financing package to cover critical spending;

decrease in devaluation expectations of the population;

decrease in the attractiveness of foreign currency deposits as a result of the growth of requirements for reserving for them;

growing attractiveness of government bonds.

However, the surveyed experts are not sure that this trend will continue until the end of 2023.. Moreover, some even predict a correction of the fixed exchange rate of the NBU towards the weakening of the national currency..

Since the need for foreign currency remains high, during the winter the NBU sold an average of $700 million weekly, which was due to the rapid growth in imports of goods.

The ICU group expects the NBU to maintain the current fixed hryvnia against the US dollar until the end of the third quarter of 2023, and then may weaken it by 10% [approximately to 40.23 UAH / USD]. The final decision of the National Bank will be influenced by the volume of international financial assistance expected in 2024. After all, it was its arrival in significant volumes in the winter of 2023 that helped to maintain the situation in the foreign exchange market.

[see_also ids\u003d"

According to the level of the official fixed exchange rate of the NBU, cash rates will also rise. So, according to the forecasts of Anton Kurinny, a dealer of the Global Markets Department of OTP Bank, at the end of the year the official NBU rate will be about 40-42 UAH / USD, and cash - approximately 42-44 UAH / USD. That is, in fact, the situation in the foreign exchange market may return to the state of autumn-winter 2022.