NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels today look not only at the battlefield in Ukraine, but also at the country's future relationship with the alliance.
This issue is taking on a higher priority as President Joe Biden and other NATO national leaders convene for their annual meeting in July, they will face intense pressure from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make progress on Ukrainian membership..
Ukraine's drive to join NATO is likely to intensify if Kyiv defeats Russian troops in an offensive expected to begin in the coming weeks. The Ukrainian army is the only one among the modern European Armed Forces that not only resists a large-scale Russian attack, but also causes serious damage to the enemy.
“Ukrainians are convinced that this entitles them to a seat at the NATO table,” writes the Wall Street Journal, recalling that this table will expand today..
On the 74th anniversary of the founding of the defense organization, Finland will officially join NATO. At the flag-raising ceremony in front of the headquarters, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will congratulate the 31 members of the organization who applied to join about a year ago together with Sweden after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Swedish bid remains in limbo due to resistance from Turkey and Hungary. But other members of the alliance expressed optimism that before the summer meeting in Vilnius, NATO will already have 32 member countries..
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Finland's rapid entry contrasts with Ukraine's status and prospects. In 2008, NATO countries stated that it would someday join the alliance, but did not name any time frame.. Today, officials say there is no discussion of quick action, primarily because Ukraine is at war with Russia.. And membership in the alliance will now lead to direct conflict with Moscow, which NATO is assiduously avoiding..
“With Ukraine's membership not on the NATO agenda, the leaders are debating what consolation prize to offer to show support and encouragement without over-promising and without giving Russia some kind of propaganda victory.. Whatever the package that appears at the Vilnius summit, it will form the basis for NATO's relationship with Kiev for months or years to come..
The debate at NATO, which will include foreign ministers, will focus on issues such as providing Ukraine with tougher or more vague security guarantees, as well as how to strike a balance between developing short-term military capabilities and building long-term political ties, the people said.. Stoltenberg said on Monday that ministers plan to begin work on what he called a multi-year program for Ukraine..
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According to Stoltenberg, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with military assistance worth more than $70 billion. Much of that aid came from the US, according to information provided by the Pentagon.. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is attending this week's meetings but will pay more attention to Ukraine's political future after the expected offensive..
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Ukraine expects offensive to help it regain military initiative and rebuff Russian troops. NATO leaders hope this will give Kyiv enough of an edge on the battlefield to push Vladimir Putin into negotiations..
Putin showed no interest in peace talks. But if they do take place, Ukraine's allies want them to be strong enough to prevent Russia from using the truce to regroup and resume hostilities..
" But when this happens, we will need to take measures so that Ukraine can deter future aggression,” Stoltenberg said..
What such measures might look like is currently under discussion.. The countries closest to Ukraine and Russia, notably Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, are pushing for strong security guarantees for Kyiv and a clear path to membership with close political ties.. Others, including the US, Germany and France, are in favor of focusing on short-term practical issues such as providing weapons, funding and humanitarian support..
One area of \u200b\u200bshort-term attention has been what NATO calls a comprehensive assistance package for Ukraine, which was launched in 2016.. Focused on non-lethal aid, it seeks to improve the country's chances of joining NATO one day.. Goals include developing Ukrainian democratic and state institutions, improving military command and control, and moving closer to NATO logistics and standards..
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At the NATO summit last summer in Madrid, the members of the alliance agreed to expand the comprehensive aid package. Moreover, according to officials, an increase in funding for the program to $500 million from the current $200 million is being discussed.. Alliance members say the program supports Ukraine's military efforts behind the lines.
Countries advocating such aid and military support say it is more important than theoretical discussions about what post-war political arrangements between Ukraine and NATO might look like..
" Everything else depends on its outcome,” said one diplomat..