On the night of January 29, a big uproar arose in Iran, or gevolt - in the original language. The territory of this country was fired upon by kamikaze drones, which hit at least an enterprise in the city of Isfahan, where combat UAVs were produced, including the infamous " In addition, various sources reported fires and explosions in five more cities both in the center of the country and in the north.. It is difficult to verify what was there and what damage was done.. Someone links the earthquake that occurred in the north with possible strikes. Like, they beat something heavy on underground storages.
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In the absence of information, it is difficult to prove or disprove these allegations, so I propose to focus on the strike in Isfahan, especially since there is video confirmation. Based on the received satellite images, there is little damage, so the damage is most likely minimal.. Nevertheless, these strikes, in my opinion, are an important stage in changing the rules of the game in the Middle East - due to Tehran's participation in the war against Ukraine, its military capabilities automatically become legitimate targets. This, in particular, is evidenced by the latest statements of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who said that after Iran's refusal to conclude a nuclear deal, all options are available to prevent this country from obtaining nuclear weapons.. In other words, the United States has turned on the countdown, and Iran's participation in the war on the side of Russia turns this country into a legitimate target.. It is also important to point out that this statement was made by the American politician during his visit to the Middle East region.. Inquisitive observers did not ignore the visit of the head of the CIA to Israel on the eve of this strike, which may indicate the coordination of the efforts of the two special services..
Who did this? There really aren't that many versions.. Israel is rightfully in the first place, if only because it did something similar a year ago.. In mid-February 2022, six Israeli drones attacked an Iranian base in Kermanshah in the west of the country, resulting in the destruction of about 120 UAVs.. Sources say so. In response, Iran launched a missile attack on Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan), where Israeli calculations were supposedly located. Earlier, Israel carried out similar acts of sabotage and sabotage at nuclear facilities in Natang (in July 2020, April 2021) and Keredzh (in June 2021). It is clear that Israel denies its involvement.
Well-known Azerbaijani military expert Agil Rustamzade on his Facebook page suggests that the UAVs that hit Iranian targets could be modified Israeli Harop kamikaze drones with an increased flight range of 1000 km + and an installed satellite antenna.
Finally, the possible involvement of Israel in this attack is reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed US government officials and people familiar with the details of the operation.. Israeli experts close to the Israel Defense Forces speak about the Israeli trace. Iranian authorities also traditionally blame Tel Aviv.
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The intrigue was created by the Emirati channel Al-Arabiya, which reported that the United States and another country, but not Israel, took part in the operation.. Of course, reference to unnamed sources does not allow us to seriously consider this version, but it can be assumed, with a certain flight of fancy, that this could be both Saudi Arabia, which suffered from Iranian drone and missile strikes, and Azerbaijan, in whose embassy in Tehran the day before.
If we assume that it was Israeli drones that struck Isfahan, then what about the other \? Too large geography of the use of drones - almost the center and north of the country. Is it possible to assume the participation of an internal player? I think that participation in this operation of the Mujahiddin-e-Khalk organization, a long-term opponent of the Ayatollah regime, is not ruled out.. This organization willingly takes responsibility for the elimination of engineers and representatives of the regime involved in the Iranian nuclear program..
Over the past four months, the internal political situation in Iran has changed significantly. Internal protests that began in September last year, despite excessive violence against participants and even death sentences, do not subside, which creates additional pressure on the authorities. From the outside, the Iranian opposition forces have stepped up their activities, which, it would seem, have already become covered with dust and cobwebs over many years of fruitless expectations.. The attitude of the traditionally cautious European Union towards the regime is also changing.. The discussion of the status of a terrorist organization for the Guard Corps in its structures gives a clear signal to the Islamists that the business as usual principle no longer works.. Let me remind you that the non-recognition of the IRGC as a terrorist organization was one of the main demands of the Iranians at the negotiations with the United States in Vienna.. The reason is obvious - the vast majority of the Iranian establishment comes from the depths of this structure and is tied to it with their wealth and business interests..
What could be the Iranian response? Usually the Iranians take a break for a few days to prepare it.. It is not certain that it will be loud, although there are rumors of a possible missile attack on Israeli tankers.. Previously, by striking back, the Iranians also sent a signal that they did not want further escalation.. Let's see how it will be this time. Now other actors and other circumstances. I don’t know about the losses, but the Ayatollah regime received moral humiliation.
Here we should also recall the Iranian incident, which Tehran created with its own hands.. His refusal to recognize Shaheds renamed as “geraniums” gives him wide room for maneuver and hits Iran itself like a boomerang.. If, according to this logic, it is impossible to prove the ownership of drones, then the appearance of a “third force” that will regularly strike is only a matter of time.. Accordingly, any accusation of Israel and an Iranian missile strike in response to its territory will be considered an unmotivated act of aggression.. This, in turn, will lead to a large-scale missile strike throughout Iran and a war in which Iran, frankly, has little chance of surviving. The international coalition to counter Iranian aggression will warm up with pleasure on the ayatollahs, and local revolutionaries will willingly finish off the rest even without the presence of foreign troops on the territory of Iran. Russia and China will not help the Islamists.
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Obviously, it is too early to talk about a complete change in the rules of the game, but some new frameworks are already looming.. Iran will be treated harshly and without unnecessary ceremonies. Guardian Corps-related businesses are subject to monitoring, and politicians and their families (and this is the majority of the ruling group) will be at risk of arrest and confiscation of property abroad. The blows will continue. The Americans are saying in plain text: the further development of the situation will depend on the decisions that will be made in Tehran. If they want to return to the previous state, refuse to cooperate with Moscow, the offer is open. If not, it will be as Secretary Blinken said..
Will it help us? Possibly, but in one step. The main thing now is to prevent the supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. There may not be a final decision on their delivery yet.. Bidding continues, and in which direction the scales will tip is still unknown. The Iranians used to be distinguished by prudence, I hope they have not completely lost this trait.
Read more articles by Igor Semivolos at the link.
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