An economic collapse is about to break out, similar to what happened in 2008. This time it is more likely that it will come not from developed countries, but from developing countries, which show the same signs of overheating of the economy as the US on the eve of the previous recession. But the coming recession may be twice as strong. This forecast was made in its annual report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is also called the Central Bank of the Central Banks.

Analysts of the financial organization are concerned about rising inflation, weakening demand with a low level of corporate investment, increasing debt burden and increasing protectionism. The rise in prices "eats" economic growth, the review says. However, the policy of targeting this indicator at low levels reduces fears of analysts.

The situation with debts is worse. According to the Institute of International Finance, the global debt burden reached a record $ 217 trillion, equivalent to 327% of global GDP.

The situation in China is especially worrisome. Its total debt has already surpassed 304% of GDP. Since 2007 year. Chinese corporate debt grew by 70% - up to 166% of GDP, and household debt reached 44% of GDP, while on average in developing countries it is 35% of GDP. In late May, Moody's for the first time since 1989 lowered China's sovereign long-term rating in national and foreign currencies - from "Aa3" to "A1".

Short-term prospects for the global economy BIS estimates quite positively, considering them "the best for a long time". According to the estimates of the organization, in 2017. It will grow by 3.5%, which is not far from the pace at which world GDP grew in the "golden decade" before the 2008 crisis. However, in a number of economies, alarm signals already sound that warn of the approach of a financial storm.

A serious test for the financial system will be tightening monetary policy of the world's leading central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve, which accelerates the rate of interest rate increases. This will lead to an increase in the value of the dollar and borrowing.

Until recently, ultra-soft monetary policy facilitated debt service, masking risks. Transition to its tightening may trigger a crisis or increase financial collapse in the most vulnerable countries, the bank's report says..

I agree with this conclusion and Vladimir Bragin, Director for Financial Market Analysis and Macroeconomics of Alfa Capital,. In his opinion, global central banks missed the point when it was possible to raise the rates relatively painlessly. Their actions alone will not cause a crisis, but can serve as a trigger for it. And the clouds over the world economy are condensed simply because it is approaching the completion of another business cycle, which turned out to be weaker than the previous one, but at the same time more prolonged.

This weakness also confused the regulators. The growth rate of the economy was lower than that observed before 2007. And this, according to the expert, led to serious errors in the assessment of the situation by central banks and governments, because they were guided by inflated inflation rates, GDP growth and other indicators, and did not hurry to tighten monetary policy.

"And the economy, rather, grew then too quickly than it is now too slow. Now the economy is growing closer to normal long-term values ??than the last 20 years before that, "the analyst said..

The problem is that not only the central banks and governments, but also market participants are guided by the indicators of the "golden years". Excessive expectations are the cause of many crises. Recently, the global economy has grown well, but the sources of this growth have already been exhausted. Inflation has reached the target, unemployment is very low. "The current moment shows that most of the cyclical growth has already passed," Bragin stated..

But the central banks did not prepare enough room for maneuver within this business cycle, although there was such an opportunity. Their excessive caution can play a bad joke on the next downward cycle, when regulators simply will not have the possibility of a strong easing of monetary policy. And the new inevitable crisis will become more painful.

In fact, this is why the Fed is now trying to accelerate rates of rate hikes, despite the fact that the latest data on the development of the US economy are not very good, and it is growing not so fast. The ECB will think about the same way, but its possibilities are limited, since the bank is a regulator not for one country, but for the whole EU and the eurozone.

European countries are at different stages of the business cycle, and the optimal monetary policy for each is markedly different. If in Germany the economy is now in excellent condition and you can boldly raise the rates, then in the case of Italy or Spain it can be a death for the financial system. Therefore, the ultra-soft policy of the ECB is likely to last for a long time.

Toughening monetary policy can be a cause for the crisis, but its cause is much deeper, and it is impossible to predict what will trigger the new financial explosion, as well as the time of the recession.. But there is a risk, and the recession can begin at any moment.

"The economy does not work in another way. These downs and ups are a thing that will be constantly. We will always be either in one stage or in another, "the expert warned..

But there is another point of view. Deputy Director of the Institute of Contemporary Economy Ivan Antropov believes that on the global scale the economy is now in no danger. He is sure that tightening monetary policy is not a precursor to the future crisis, but an indicator of the current health of the economy.

"It's just a reaction to the fact that the economy is getting healthy and getting back to normal. A soft monetary policy was a measure to overcome the crisis. Now many socio-economic indicators reach target values ??and, accordingly, monetary policy of many countries comes to its normal state, "the expert said..

According to him, the world economy shows stable growth, its development is evident. Yes, there are problems, as, for example, in Europe with deflation or with a crisis of overproduction. But as time shows, and they successfully cope. Export is growing, new markets are located. Even Italy with its fragile banking system is currently more or less growing.

"And if there are no serious shocks in Europe, but while everything seems to be calm there, and the excitement about the exit of the UK from the EU has also subsided, I do not see any special global risks for the near future," the economist concluded..