In the spring of 2022, Ukrainians realized that the state rests not only on the army, electricity and communications. But also on the refueling nozzle. After the shutdown of the Kremenchug oil refinery, the destruction of more than 20 large oil depots and the rupture of old supply routes, people were sold 5-10 liters at gas stations. Drivers looked for gasoline in chat rooms, drove between cities and filled up anything that even remotely resembled a can.. There was enough fuel in the world. But they didn’t have time to buy it, deliver it, reload it and deliver it. In four years, Ukraine has rebuilt the market and learned to live “on wheels”. But this victory has a thin lining: a significant part of the fuel physically travels from European refineries, ports, tanks and railcars. Although the warehouse is large, the keys to it are not in our hands.
The following is the text in the original language. Evidence of the land of gas stations Russia has shown how the liquid nafta power can turn into the land of cards and coupons. After a series of Ukrainian attacks on refineries, gasoline production in the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2026 covered 50-65% of the seasonal supply (depending on various estimates). Moscow began to transfer fuel from Siberia, sharply increase imports from Belarus and buy gasoline in India. In many regions, exchange sales were introduced, and at independent gas stations prices reached 150-200 rubles per liter. In social media, people hated the alarmists, but the psychological avalanche was already boiling. This is a lesson for Ukraine. Naphtha from Sverdlovsk does not go directly into the tank. Among them are a refinery, electrical equipment, a tank, a port, a mine, a fuel truck and a gas station.. Vibing a number of lanks and naphtha velvet becomes a gasoline invalid.
The risk for Ukraine is especially problematic, no matter what, but a levy for 2026/27. The previous winter showed how crap the energy system is. In Kiev, after the strikes, people were left without electricity for 19-20 years, the temperature dropped to minus 17-18 degrees. Doctors, water utilities, shops, boiler houses, pharmacies, mobile communications and residential buildings lived on generators. In such a situation, diesel and gasoline cease to be just fuel for the car. The stench melts with light and warmth. And at this point, Ukraine may still be subject to imports. In the spring of 2026, the country imported a record 577 thousand for this month. tons of diesel. In our country with head dzherelami benzene boules Lithuania, Rumunia, Nimechchina, Moldova and Poland. Otherwise, it seems that our generator can be standing in a courtyard in Kiev, but its fire hose stretches through Mazeikiai, Plotsk, Gdansk, Constanta and dozens of border crossings.
Europe has long been held at bay. Russia's threat to strike Europe has long been a whisper.. They are voiced by high-ranking officials, and the national television station recreates them on the evening show. The same Solovyov regularly names specific regions and objects. In one of the broadcasts, he said as directly as possible: “We are guilty of hitting Poland...”. Political scientist Sergei Karaganov, who took part in Russian discussions about nuclear doctrine, repeatedly preached against Zakhod to “hit a group of targets in several countries”. Accuracy is important: in public statements, Russians often name military bases, airfields, warehouses, and transport hubs. There are still not a lot of mass requests to beat the oil refineries themselves. Apart from that, oil refineries that support the army, Ukraine and NATO logistics, in times of great escalation, can easily become objects of “secondary importance”. And such threats are not absent from the middle of the narrow political group. According to the Levada Center for the 2026 document, the TV channel is deprived of a lot of new products for 56% of Russians, social media for 38%, new Telegram channels for 18–19%. Well, the phrase was thrown in the evening in the studio, video clips, channels and publics will spread around the morning. This is not proof that the order to attack Poland is already lying in the safe. But this is a way to gradually inculcate success into the idea that a blow to the edge of NATO is not madness, but one of the “normal options of the species”.
The masquerading strike of the Russian Federation on Poland, Lithuania and Rumania would be an attack on NATO powers. For Article 5, an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all. There is already another level of war, so such a scenario cannot be presented as inevitable, but rather the most plausible one. Ale vidkidati yogo yak sci-fi is not safe. The Baltic states and Poland are already ahead of Russian provocations and threats to critical infrastructure. Latvia has secured the protection of a hydroelectric power station and an underground gas storage facility due to intelligence information about a possible Russian threat. On a similar flank of NATO, energy facilities are covered with concrete spores and anti-drone nets.
The Russian industrial conveyor is growing. According to analysts, in early 2026, the Russian Federation launched over 8 thousand attack and drone drones across Ukraine, with an average of over 260 in addition. New Maidans will soon be launched closer to the closing borders, in Belarus, in the Oryol region, in Crimea, etc.. In Latvia and Estonia, the targets could be ports, tanks, loading docks and terminals. Lithuania is powered by the great Mazeikiai oil refinery, and the refineries of Poland and Romania are important for both their countries and Ukrainian imports.. This is our deep style. The plant is located hundreds of kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and you can see a small part of it at gas stations near Lvov, Kiev and Dnipro.
Three edges that can forge the entire reserve According to FuelsEurope, the capacity of Poland's great refineries is close to 29.2 million. tons per river, Lithuania 9.7 million. , Romania 11.9 million. All at once 50.8 million. tons, approximately 9% of the total capacity of EU refineries. Zagal factories in the EU, Great Britain, Norway and Switzerland can process approximately 625.4 million. tons per river. Quite a severe stress scenario: refineries in three countries were slowing down, and European refineries were operating at approximately 84% capacity before the shocks.. Todi Europe will spend close to 42 million. tons of actual processing at the river, or a maximum of 117 thousand. tons per dobu. To further turn the front line of production, the plants will be able to increase the average production rate to 92%. On paper it is possible. Ale in life, a refinery is not a teapot, to whom you can simply add fire. Refineries undergo repairs, technological changes are carried out for water, hydrocracking, crude oil purification and types of naphtha.. Until then, 2026 is already a very close moment for such a crisis.. Due to interruptions in the Closed Convergence, European and American refineries are already working on borders. Light output of naphtha products by approximately 5 million. Barelyov for the extraction is lower, lower than before, and the reserves of ready-made sleeping material are running out. There’s a spare bed in the room, but it’s already sitting on a new one.
It’s important not to lump everything together into one mess.. The EU may have a great structural surplus of gasoline. In 2024, net exports of motor gasoline reached 43.3 million. tons of naphtha equivalent. Therefore, due to serious damage to similar refineries, it is not obligatory to deprive Ukraine without the A-95. With a diesel engine the picture is the same. The EU is already its importer: in 2024, the shortage of diesel and liquefied gas will reach 15.7 million. tons. Europe is purchasing more on the light market, just like aviation LPG. As soon as Poland, Lithuania and Rumunia fell into conflict, these countries would order us to join us on the same tankers. So the problem will not arise until the world runs out of naphtha. It will happen if the required diesel is not available, at the required tank, at a reasonable price and with a free carriage to the Ukrainian cordon.
Porti " And zaliznytsia? Along the way there is information about the fact that Ukrainian fire alarms are already destroying power terminals and causing troubles in EU ports. Whether it’s true or not – as long as no one confirms it and it’s not easy. Who knows, it could be better. If spoiled can become a target, there is a chance that “our” reserves will survive. In European ports, even a lot of easy-to-borrow cargo is saved, because they receive the smell of ready-made gasoline and diesel, and not raw naphtha. For example, Rotterdam has close to 7.5 million. cubic meters of storage of naphtha products at over 20 terminals. Gdansk Igneous Terminal costs 765 thousand. cubic meters (official port websites publish this data) of tanks and passport transshipment up to 40 million. tons per river. Klaipeda can be valued at close to 8 million. tons of rare energy products, and the tank farm will become approximately 570 thousand. cubic meters. Constanta has close to 1.1 million. cubic meters of saving, seven sea berths and efficient expansion up to 20 thousand. tons per dobu. However, if the oil refineries of Poshkodzheni, aka Gdansk, Klaipeda and Constanta are rendered useless, the crisis can be extinguished by importing finished fuel from the USA and other regions. Ukraine has already shown that this scheme works: the European “Solidarity Roads” have allowed almost 102 million to reach us since May 2022. tons of various goods, among them. That passport tightness to the port does not mean a good place. Some of the berths and tanks have already been contracted, some are producing naphtha or other oils. And the head traffic jam begins after the pier.
You need to know tank cars, locomotives and fuel trucks, go through the checkpoint and cordon, and then transfer goods between the European and Ukrainian tracks.. To completely replace the wasted processing of three edges, it would be necessary to have approximately 16-17 medium-sized tanker shipments.. The Sea Gate of Europe will accept such a flow. Ale way to skhіd can turn into a dance throat.
It will be even worse when port tanks and loading racks will be attacked simultaneously from the refinery.. This bedroom can be brought to Rotterdam or Antwerp, but hauling it across the continent to Poland, the Baltics and Ukraine will be very expensive. Palivo is on the map, but not in our tank.
The EU countries require emergency stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of surplus. This is a great safety cushion. Also, part of the reserves is stored in the form of crude oil. If the oil refinery is down, such naphtha predicts a bag of grain from a filled bakery: the resource is, but there is no bread at all. Ukraine’s household needs are not about abstract “naphtha assistance”, but about concrete reserves of ready-made winter diesel, gasoline and aircraft, reserved terminals, wagons and green corridors across the cordon.
The current Ukrainian stocks are tactical reserves for 10-15 days. It is not safe to accumulate large warehouses, because the stinks become targets. Therefore, the reserve of the trace should be sterilized, gradually renewed and carefully formed for critical services.
What to do now is to work without repeating blows? Perche. Ukraine is small to cover emergency scenarios of spending 25%, 50% and 100% of processing in Poland, Lithuania and Romania. Please select the required options when dealing with problems and when dealing with damage.. For the skin scenario, the following persons may be significant: duties, obligations, routes and other people.
Friend. The need to buy not only the bedroom, but also the right to withdraw: options on tanker lots, reserve slots in terminals, tank cars, etc.. In a crisis, the first thing to know is not the product. Often knows a free berth, transport or money for an advance payment.
Third. Required distribution of finished diesel stock for hospitals, water utilities, boiler houses, mobile communications, schools and municipal transport. The skin community is responsible for knowing not only how many generators, but also how many liters of stench they burn in a year and how many odors are actually wiped off.
Fourth. An honest order of priorities is required. In the acute crisis, the first to blame are medicine, heat, water, communications, defense, agriculture and essential logistics.. This is not acceptable, but it is better to carry out its flow, below lay down the rules for the empty column in the river.
Piv tank healthy gluten Stan on 22 linden, the average price of A-95 in Ukraine has already dropped to close to 78.4 UAH. per liter, diesel 81.7 UAH. People in social media are overwhelmed by a familiar picture: the expensive one is flashy, and the cheaper one is equal. Although the price is high, the price is not the highest. Girshe, if you can’t buy it at the same price. Having already verified the cream. However, basic people do not need to convert their apartment to a petroleum depot. Canisters in the basement, apartments and balconies provide not security, but the risk of burning and isolation. It is wiser to enter the cold season with a technically sound car and do not fill the tank to the light bulb. Singing reserve varto trimati, but in an adequate container (a piece of plastic generates a static charge, then a spark and. ), posture with living positions. Who has a garage, a private cabin, a dacha.
Owners of generators must immediately check the actual power consumption of the generator, add key connectors, and carry out engine maintenance. It is important to connect the generator with the charging station and batteries so that the engine does not spend hours on many lamps. This gives some savings.
Unfortunately, in front-line and neighboring regions, gas stations themselves have become targets. In Kharkiv region, Russians attacked 20 gas stations in just one week. Waters are trying to refuel before a long trip and don’t stand at the pumps in times of anxiety. This rule is good to conquer all over the country: better than the first tank in the back, lower tank, purchases from unsafe dealers.
And don’t repeat the panic of 2022. Then people stood in the hall for the allowed ten liters, although the tank only held about five or so. A massive rush to gas stations can be converted from a stressful supply to a general shortage in one payday.
Russia's massive blow to the refineries of the EU region is lost in the extreme scenario. Ale energetic security will not be based on the phrase “what cannot be done”, but on the basis of “what is possible, as it has become”. Europe has enough factories and ports to support Ukraine's recovery after the serious waste of labor at the gathering. Ale її reserve is not bottomless. There is a large supply of gasoline to fill up. For a diesel engine, the fuel is thin, because it can be stored for import.
As soon as the blows are avoided due to the harsh winter, the global shortage of petroleum products and the damage to ports, the building will become such a front, like electricity. Ukraine experienced a fire collapse in 2022, but in just a few months it started new logistics from scratch. This coming time may not exist for many months.