The Ukrainian metallurgy industry is under unprecedented pressure due to the simultaneous impact of war, labor shortages, new European Union trade restrictions, the future of the CBAM mechanism and rising logistics costs.

This is stated in the NV report from the Zaporizhstal plant, which today provides almost half of Ukrainian steel production.

Despite Russian attacks, the enterprise continues to operate. The plant is equipped with 16 stationary shelters and 20 protective modules, but production processes generally do not stop even during air raids. “We are saving the domestic metallurgy,” says metal heater Alexey, commenting on the work of the enterprise during the war.

However, the main threat to the industry today is not only the security situation: according to the chief analyst of the GMK Center Andrey Tarasenko, the Ukrainian metallurgy is quickly approaching a critical point. " We are very quickly approaching the bifurcation point,” he noted..

According to GMK Center, if in 2025 steel production in Ukraine was 7.4 million tons, then in 2026 it could decrease to 6.2 million tons, and in 2027 – to 5.6–5.8 million tons.

One of the key challenges was the new European Union quotas, which came into force on July 1. Because of them, Ukraine lost a significant part of the opportunities for duty-free export of steel to the European market. As Zaporizhstal sales director Vladimir Kolomiets explained, Ukrainian manufacturers were allowed to supply only 1.05 million tons of metal products to the EU, which is about 60% less than last year. " This is a question of fair distribution of quotas,” he noted..

According to representatives of the plant, losses for Zaporizhstal alone could amount to about 900 thousand. tons of products per year, and it is almost impossible to quickly redirect such volumes to other markets.

The company names the increase in Ukrzaliznytsya tariffs for freight transportation as another risk factor.. From August 1, they will increase by 30%, and in another six months - by 15%. Since the plant is almost completely dependent on the rail delivery of raw materials, the company is already preparing to reduce production.

“We are already doing this and will continue next month,” says Kolomiets. Another serious challenge for the industry will be the full launch of the CBAM transboundary carbon adjustment mechanism: according to Kolomiyets, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises support the course towards decarbonization, but it is almost impossible to implement large-scale environmental investments during the war.

“Large investment projects for decarbonization are almost impossible to implement in conditions of war and the lack of insurance for war risks,” he emphasized. Therefore, Ukraine needs to delay the introduction of the financial component of CBAM until the end of martial law while maintaining monitoring and reporting requirements.

Personnel shortage remains a separate problem. Before the full-scale invasion, about 10.5 thousand worked at Zaporizhstal. people, now – 8.2 thousand. In general, the number of employees of Metinvest Group has decreased from 110 thousand since 2022. up to 50 thousand. , while more than 8 thousand. employees serve in the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

According to market participants, the combined impact of the war, personnel shortages, new EU quotas, the future of CBAM and rising costs of railway logistics is creating the most difficult conditions for the Ukrainian metallurgy since independence. At the same time, industry representatives note that there is still an opportunity to change the situation by revising trade terms with the EU, delaying the entry into force of the financial part of the CBAM and making decisions that will preserve the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers in war conditions.

As is known, Metinvest of Rinat Akhmetov, taking into account associated companies and joint ventures, paid UAH 4.3 billion in taxes and fees to budgets of all levels in Ukraine in the first quarter of 2026. In general, since the beginning of a full-scale war, including the results of the first quarter of 2026, the group’s tax contributions reached almost UAH 78 billion. In addition, the company remains one of the largest investors in the Ukrainian economy: since February 24, 2022, it has invested more than UAH 28 billion in investments.