The May report on the US labor market, which recorded an unexpected jump in employment and poses difficult questions to the Federal Reserve System (FRS), whether it is necessary to make monetary policy more stringent in conditions when the country's top political leadership requires it to be softened, in conditions of high inflation (about 4%), set off a chain reaction on global financial markets.. Capital is flowing into American assets, the dollar index (DXY) is reaching two-month highs, and the European currency is under significant pressure.
The following is the text in the original language. For Ukraine, despite the isolation from international markets of commercial capital in the minds of the war, the transatlantic distance has a very real legacy. What will happen with the dollar and euro exchange rates on the domestic market in the coming months?
Dollar pressure between the “keroved bun” The possible global depreciation of the US dollar creates an objective devaluation pressure on the currencies of all countries that are developing. Ukraine is not to blame. Some light prices on energy and key imports are charged in US currency, the lower dollar automatically means higher costs for the purchase of critical goods.
In these minds, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) operates within the framework of the all-important regime of ceramic filament. The nature of the regulator's actions can be determined by changes:.
The paradox of the euro: why the European currency is so different Since the tendency towards the appreciation of the dollar in Ukraine is obvious, the situation in the euro looks much worse. On the light markets, the EUR/USD pair is weakening due to the gap in the policy of central banks: the US economy is losing its stability and may see a previous period of high rates, so that the stagflationary Eurozone will require relaxation.
For a Ukrainian worker, this business means an important macroeconomic effect:.
Deposit and bond shield against panic The main supply that is turbulent for Ukrainians: which threatens the uncontrolled market with the collapse of the hryvnia? Macroeconomic factors indicate what. Ukraine is entirely dependent on the financial assistance of its partners (especially the EU), and the very rhythm of these needs means the drain on our foreign exchange reserves. Docs international support is no longer stable, the NBU is closely monitoring the situation.
In addition, the regulator keeps pressure on the internal streaming instrument - interest rate policy. Saving the regional interest rate, which will ensure a positive real return on hryvnia assets (deposits and OVDP) with the regulation of inflation, is lost as a key barrier. For a cross-border citizen, this business means that trimming cash in hryvnia instruments is deprived of economically profitable ones, rather than buying up foreign currency.
Replacement: strategy for business and communities Global financial changes are pouring into Ukraine. Since the dollar is becoming more valuable in the world, this trend will be reflected in Ukraine. Europe is excited that it is streaming the euro. In such minds, it is better for Ukrainian businesses to diversify the currency boxes of foreign economic contracts, and for citizens to avoid emotional decisions in the commodity market, respecting those that the NBU may.