The Kremlin factor: Russian aggression provoked a systemic crisis that transformed Ukraine’s subjectivity into a key factor in the restructuring of the global security architecture. The following is the text in the original language. Today's global security architecture is not just showing cracks - it is on the verge of collapse. Through large-scale invasions of Ukraine and systematic blackmail of the international community, the Russian dictator Putin has left the illusion of stability in ruins, transferring light to the regime of unsheltered and increasingly geopolitical. And this is not a sudden collapse of the situation, but a clear strategy of chaos, aimed at dismantling the decadent liberal order.

Analyzing the root of this crisis, Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of the American magazine The Atlantic, warmly noted: “The world that Putin does not create is a world where might means right, and cordons are all the more time-consuming.”. This quote reinforces the head cry of modernity: we have arrived at the point where many rules are no longer in force, and new ones have not yet been written, which threatens the leading powers of the world to balance on the brink of a global crisis.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a tectonic event that left the post-Cold War security architecture in ruins. This attack will not destroy the existing system of international security, but will lock our planet into a period of deep geopolitical instability and lack of transferability.

Looking at this, Russia’s war in Ukraine needs to be seen as a key element in the formation of a new type of global confrontation, which is not necessarily the form of a classic light war, but also may be signs of systemic confrontation.

Let us first note that the very structure of the international system has seen profound changes. Since after the end of the Cold War there was a dominant trend toward unipolarity with the unchallenged leadership of the United States, today's world is moving closer to fragmented multipolarity..

The war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine became the point at which the revisionist powers openly challenged the fundamental international order. As a result, the current state of affairs has ceased to be local, forming entirely between crises and interconnected geopolitical tensions.

Analyzing the risks of a broader global conflict, it is clear that the Russian-Ukrainian war has long gone beyond the boundaries of regional conflict, and acts as a catalyst for a systemic crisis in the international order.

The first and most obvious risk is the direct connection between NATO and the Russian Federation, which is constantly balancing on the boundary, obviously provoking escalation. Through those that Moscow is committed to provocation at the cordons of Poland and the Baltic states, this creates a permanent risk of open conflict.

The Russian doctrine of “escalation for the sake of deescalation” and regular nuclear blackmail have lowered the threshold of the likelihood of stagnation of the nuclear weapons system, which threatens the regime of non-disruption of the nuclear weapons system for ten years..

Another aspect is the creation of a new architecture of global space. The “revisionist bloc”, where Russia is becoming a young partner of China, is forming a totalitarian alliance with Iran and New Korea, aimed at dismantling the official liberal secular order and reducing the emerging hegemony.

This creates a situation of “triple stream” for the United States, which must immediately respond to Russia’s aggression in Europe, and go to neutralize the destabilizing actions of Iran in the Near Departure..

The war in Ukraine has shown China both the power of last-minute sanctions and the power of last-ditch defensive efforts to push Beijing to take more drastic actions, as it appears either.

The third risk lies in the destabilization of “Global Day”. Food and energy insecurity, caused by the war, has destroyed the divide between rich and poor countries, and there is a strong anti-surge sentiment in Africa, Latin America and Western Asia. This creates a vacuum in which totalitarian regimes will actively re-establish themselves, promoting alternative models of security and financing without the benefit of democratization..

In addition, the militarization of the economies of the leading powers and the reorganization of global powers are gradually leading to the fragmentation of light trade into neighboring blocs, which suggests economic logic.

It is true that the war in Ukraine greatly discredited the UN and other international institutions as instruments of defeating aggression, turning the world to a policy of “might is right” instead of “might of right”.

As if Russia’s aggression will not end with a strategic defeat and renewal of the internationally recognized cordons of Ukraine, this will create an unsafe precedent. Incentives for other regional residents to implement their territorial goals through military routes.

The risk of global continuity lies not only in the likelihood of a great war, but also in the irrevocable transformation of the world into a system of permanent confrontation, where chaos becomes the new norm, and stability is an unattainable deficit.

The fourth rizik is the hybridization of war. The current situation is to go far beyond the boundaries of traditional military operations. Information operations, cyber attacks, energy pressure and economic sanctions are becoming invisible tools of the fight.. The war in Ukraine showed that warehouse information is one of the key elements of emergency security. In this context, the global confrontation is already taking place – but still in a “reconciliation” form, without an official declaration of war.

The fifth rizik is economical and resourceful. The conflict between two great food exporters caused serious disruption in light markets and increased the risk of global instability.. Disrupted logistics, the energy crisis in Europe and soaring food prices are creating additional tensions, especially in the countries of the Global Day. For whom the war becomes a catalyst for crises, which reinforces existing social and economic problems.

Sixty rizik – the protracted nature of the war. By 2026, the conflict has risen to a positional standoff, with no advantage on either side. Such a “war of renaissance” creates strategic insignificance and promotes the emergence of radical solutions - such as expanding the theater of military operations until the stagnation of non-traditional methods.

In addition, the prolongation of the war will worsen the allies and may support the formation of a retreat coalition, which, in turn, opens up new opportunities for escalation.

Somiy rizik - reformatting the world order. Weakening of old alliances and the formation of new blocs in place of the European Union and NATO. І creation of alternative centers of power. What can be explained by the inheritance of a number of consistent trends: the significant weakening of the entry-centric model, the growing role of regional powers and the erosion of universal rules that have been formed.

After the end of bipolarity, the dominance of the United States and institutions such as the European Union and NATO seemed to have no alternative, but already in the 2010s this architecture began to lose monolithicity. The weakening of old alliances does not mean their decline, but rather a transformation of their role.

In the middle of the EU there are growing differences in austerity policies, migration and security that support the integrity of the strategic tank. At the end of NATO, while consolidating on Russian aggression, there is an asymmetry of interests between the United States and European allies, as well as food supply due to long-term security guarantees. Nowadays, these institutions are more likely to respond to crises rather than shape the order of the day.

At the same time, a network of alternative centers of force is formed. We are directly connected with the growing growth of China, which is promoting powerful economic and institutional initiatives, such as BRICS and infrastructure projects on a global scale. India, Turkey, Brazil, the powers of the Persian tributary are also more active as independent rulers, balancing between great forces and promoting a rich vector policy. This creates a situation of “linear rich polarity”, where alliances become less stable and coalitions become situational.

The peculiarity of the new stage is that the blocks are formed not only according to the ideological Chinese sign, as was the case during the Cold War, but also in technology, industrialization, energy and financial systems. Parallel institutional spaces are emerging - from alternative payment mechanisms to regional secure formats, which do not lie with the entry structures. This supports the universality of globalization leading to the fragmentation of the world into a number of interconnected or competitive systems.

We can say that the current world is collapsing not to the complete replacement of old alliances with new ones, but to a complex configuration in which traditional institutions emerge from new centers of power and powers collapse. This means increasing insignificance, more frequent conflicts of interests and, at times, greater room for maneuver for middle and small powers, which can overcome the competition of the great rulers for the purposes of power.

In this context, it is necessary to increase respect for the political world. Trying to “freeze” the Russian-Ukrainian war on the minds of Moscow or the Kremlin’s imposition of those unpleasant for Ukraine will decide to strengthen the risks of wider conflict, instead of reducing them.

If such homeownership will be perceived as weakness of the Sun, it may stimulate further aggressive behavior of the revisionist powers. Even though Moscow’s “diplomatic initiatives” are often aimed at gaining time and consolidating the positions they have achieved, rather than reaching the world that has become the end of the world, the key lies in the fact that we can talk about the beginning of a global conflict immediately. Even some of the current experts note that the world is already in the midst of a new “hybrid light war,” while others argue that they are still being saved by streaming mechanisms.. What is more obvious is that the level of global instability is one of the worst in the rest of the decade.

Russia's war against Ukraine creates a complex risk of the broader global conflict through the combination of many factors: the formation of power blocs, the militarization of international alliances, the hybridization of conflicts,.

The most likely scenario for the near future is not a classic light war, but a phase of a “disintegrated” global conflict, in which various regional crises will be interconnected and. In this very logic, the Russian-Ukrainian war was transformed from a local conflict into a deterministic agent of the global security architecture.

Ukraine has become a key geopolitical node, where the configuration of the international order for the entire 21st century is shaping up. І the results of this struggle will lay the foundation of a new system of streaming and anti-addiction in the world.