On Tuesday, Donald Trump created another hysteria on a global scale: “destruction of civilization”, “deadly strikes”, almost “doomsday”. The world froze, counting down the timer of the ultimatum to Tehran - the atmosphere was like before the apocalypse. But it turned out to be a classic show: bright, short and with a very specific effect - panic in the Middle East, empty shelves in stores and increasing sales of sedatives around the world. And even then there was a feeling that this was not politics - this was a script, and not written to suit reality, but to suit one person’s idea of \u200b\u200bhow this reality should work.

The following is the text in the original language. The script is well known: “Wag the Dog” (Wag the Dog, 1997) - a film in which the Big House predicts war in order to respect the internal failure, where media hysteria is realized. How many times has there been an external problem, but it doesn’t change the essence?. The difference lies in the fact that once again the “film” was supposed to be made in reality. The problem is that reality does not conform to scenarios - especially those inspired by a narcissistic impulse, in which any crisis automatically turns into “I’ll overcome the Swede”.

The entire campaign against Iran demonstrated the key thing: the United States is far from omnipotent in other aspects, it is very much inactive compared to Europe, and at the same time it is trying to relax, implementing in practice the short-lived concept of MAGA. This is a fundamental gap between political statements and the real architecture of power.

The success of the decal will make my head spin too much - that’s what happened. After the already brazen, but at the same time successful operation in Venezuela against the Maduro regime, part of the American administration believed that it was possible to work with Iran using the same logic, rudely. Trump actually ignored the numerous reports of American intelligence, which directly indicated that it was impossible to change the regime in Iran without a ground operation. Alas, this information was not included in this picture of “Swedish victory”.

Its logic was significantly simple and at the same time unsafe: to carry out a military campaign against the regime of the Ayatoll in front of Xi Jinping, to demonstrate the strength of the United States, to show that China is an ally. The development is reasonable - Chinese refineries are technically oriented towards processing important petroleum, which is traditionally imported from three sources: Russia, Venezuela and Iran. And the threat of the loss of two of the three leaders would create serious asymmetrical risks for the Chinese economy - approximately according to the same logic as China supplies the world through the rare earth market.

Alas, the structure has fallen apart.

The United States completely underestimated Iran both in the military and in the political world, the allies did not automatically fit into the scenario, and control over the Hormuz Channel, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass, turned out to be significantly difficult. Iran, in support of China and Russia, has shown its readiness for an asymmetrical type, through the use of cheap drones, which create problems for the strained military-naval forces.

The only real option is a permanent naval blockade, which would mean a sharp escalation for which the United States is not prepared. So the ground operation is practically guaranteed to be transformed into a new “Afghanistan”. This was well understood by the military command, but did not fit into the political scenario of Swedish victory.

As a result, instead of a demonstration, we used the classic “Wag the Dog” in real life: the creation of a great virtual threat - right up to the risk of a nuclear conflict - in order to block the lack of relevance to the result and shift the focus to a “unique catastrophe”. This is the logic of narcissistic politics - to replace reality with an emotional construct, and the very fact that “everything has not become worse” is presented as an achievement.

Alas, reality turned out to be cruel.

Instead of an important position before the negotiations with China, it was revealed that US Vice President J.D. Vance, according to ZMI, was hesitant to open backroom discussions with Beijing, so that they could help them get along with. This actually means recognition of the role of China as a key mediator and an additional center of power, and Xi Jinping, insanely, victorious this situation as much as possible.

Moreover, we may be ready for China to play a significant active role in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but it looked like a month ago - the balance has changed, and not.

Now the most likely scenario is that between the exchange of blows between the US/Israel and Iran with a parallel flow, there will be deescalation, even though it is timely, and the logic of the processes will change.. But for Ukraine there are obvious risks: the Iranian regime will stand and continue its fusion with the Kremlin for as long as possible.

In the grand scheme of things, this story shows much more than just the failure of a particular campaign. Vaughn demonstrates the interplay of forces, a change in the nature of the war, and those that policies inspired by phenomena rather than reality will inevitably fail. And at the same time, there is also a growing interest of the powers in the region in Ukraine, in practical development, in drone technologies and in adapting to the minds of a full-scale war..

Because the current war is not so much about those who spend more, but about those who adapt faster. It is impossible to buy these skills, import them or create them individually. Stinks are formed only through practice. And that’s why the stench is priceless - the stuff that you can’t buy for a trillion dollars per river.