The prevailing opinion now is that the Iranian government is a chaotic collection of people and ideas. But it seems to me that this is, if not completely erroneous, then clearly an exaggerated statement.

The following is the text in the original language. I’ll say right away that I’m not an Iranianist, but I have a poor understanding of how the mechanisms of power work, and in my judgments I go out of my way, first of all, from this knowledge..

It is important to us that the backbone of the quiet ones, who take real decisions in Iran, have set themselves a single task: to preserve power. There is one goal that organizes all their activities.

And the stench, in its own way, boils down to two main tasks: not to allow protests in the middle and not to allow ground operations.

As far as internal nutrition is concerned: to prevent protests, then the entire work of the state apparatus comes down to two aspects: slacking and preventing hunger. In general, while the authorities in this and other worlds cope with these foods. We don’t like street protests and we don’t like looting. First, and the other are only possible at that moment, if, due to various circumstances, the punitive authorities step aside, and their quasi-substitutes (opposition, bandits, etc.) obviously cannot or do not want to surrender to. Firstly, it’s too early to tidy up the visnovki. Until then, the repressive apparatus and food supply system do not cause any problems. Without whom, there will be no internal revolution.

For now, in internal politics, an unknown factor is preventing the elite from splitting. Vidmova 8 participants in the gathering to elect a new leader take part in this procedure, a sheet from the rank of one of the most prominent oppositionists - this is important, but not yet in the background. Let us understand: the regime has two options for saving power: do not change anything, or under the fades of the edge, isolate the process that represents the opposition: from prison - create a collection setting and. The infection, it seems, is a major discussion among those who may be able to reach a decision.

With a great deal of credibility, we can admit that the head gravers are trying to lose themselves in the shadows and those whom we see at the top of the pyramid, and the figures that are often among the even smart “gray cardinals”. Then all the world wars and revolutions show that all these developments are incredibly intellectual.

Given the current situation, those people who are issuing punishments seem to be guided by one principle: not to allow ground operations, as the most effective means of reducing the regime. Coming from this point of view, the shooting of all vessels is quite logical. Aje, plus or minus, it became clear that a month of such life would force everyone to press on the USA and stop the war.

As I already wrote, Trump has two options: bomb Iran for a month and then I can vote, because nuclear and ballistic potentials are reduced. Or after a month of bombing, for a couple of months, enter into ground operations with a wealth of untransferred legacies. I repeat, the regime in Tehran respects that the main goal of saving is, in any other way, the regime itself. And therefore, this rate is based on the maximum escalation for the sake of deescalation.

When we leave, we can carefully prepare the sprout and let it simmer:.

– escalation is expected, at a minimum, to a number of years (all to be kept in view of the intensity of decline in a whole series of? Projects in Iran;

– The Iranian leadership can theoretically undergo a cosmetic reformatting of the system for the sake of saving power and under the guarantee of the United States, if there will be an internal coup within the system, which will transfer the saving of power to others. And the fire went out to " It is not a fact what will happen, but for now this is the main scenario both for part of the ruling elite in Iran and for the USA.

– In this case, the main unimportant nutrients are those that continue to function in the naftogaz gas pipeline. In fact, for the sake of control over it, this war was started (at least on the US side). And so, guarantees from the United States are possible first for everything in the sense that the Americans deny control access to which market.

– The biggest development for everyone is the ground operation. This is the case in Iran and, apparently, the whole structure of some Iranian elites. Well, as you know, the first shot ruins all plans for war. And then thousands of these very same shootings were already mooning.