The world is on the verge of fundamental changes in the global security architecture. The liberal international order, which took shape decades after World War II, is experiencing the deepest crisis in its history.. But the outdated concept of geopolitical spheres of influence is gaining momentum, which in the past has repeatedly led to bloody conflicts, writes Neue Zurcher Zeitung.

America First and the Donro Doctrine.

The administration of US President Donald Trump is openly demonstrating a change in American foreign policy priorities.. The recently released US defense strategy refers to the concept of a world order based on international rules as a “castle in the air.”. This is a radical break with the tradition that previous administrations of both parties have maintained..

Instead of global leadership, Washington focuses on the priority of “homeland and hemisphere” - protecting its own territory and the entire American continent. Trump unequivocally declares the US sphere of influence from the Arctic to Patagonia, appealing to the Monroe Doctrine of two centuries ago.

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However, the modern version of this doctrine sounds much more aggressive. Claims to Greenland, allusions to Canada as the “51st state,” demonstrative actions against the Maduro regime in Venezuela—all these are elements of what the White House calls the “Donro Doctrine.”.

Argument is only force.

Stephen Miller, one of the president's key advisers, openly called the norms of international law " Such rhetoric signals a return to the philosophy of geopolitical realism in its harshest form.

This logic explains why the American leadership has repeatedly hinted that Ukraine falls into the Russian sphere of influence and therefore must take into account the interests of its powerful neighbor.. That is why statements were made about Kyiv’s alleged guilt in starting the war - within the framework of such a worldview, resistance to the dominance of a superpower is considered “irresponsible”.

Disappearance of Taiwan.

The strategic documents of the current US administration are eloquent not only in what is written in them, but also in what is not there. Taiwan, an island democracy of 24 million, is not mentioned at all in the Pentagon's new defense strategy..

Last fall, Trump silently watched China's massive blockade exercise against Taiwan, a move that previous administrations would have strongly condemned.. This indicates Washington's unofficial recognition of the Chinese sphere of influence in the region.

Beijing is described primarily as a trade and economic competitor rather than an ideological opponent. The red line remains freedom of navigation in the Pacific, but what that means for Taiwan's future remains a cloud of uncertainty.

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Troubling Historical Lessons.

Proponents of the realist school, in particular Harvard professor Graham Allison, argue that recognizing spheres of influence is a pragmatic adaptation to reality, a way to reduce the risk of confrontation between superpowers. However, history tells a different story.

The European " The First World War broke out due to Austrian ambitions in the Balkans, the Second - due to German-Soviet territorial appetites in Central-Eastern Europe. Even the Cold War, with its supposedly clear division of the world, was an extremely dangerous era.

The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when Moscow tested the strength of the American sphere of influence, almost led to nuclear war. Proxy conflicts in Asia and Africa have claimed millions of lives. Clearly defined zones of power have always remained a fiction - major powers are constantly striving to expand their influence.

Blurred boundaries of desired influence.

In the modern world, drawing clear boundaries of spheres of influence is even more difficult than a century ago.. Global supply chains, international trade, technological interdependence make any regional division problematic.

China is already South America's most important trading partner. Beijing claims dominance in future technologies - quantum computing, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology. How Washington plans to limit this influence in its own “sphere”?

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Objects of superpower policy do not obey automatically. Russia learns this lesson in Ukraine, facing fierce resistance. The US risks losing allies by adopting aggressive rhetoric - Canada's recent announcement of a strategic partnership with China should be a warning.

What awaits Europe.

Franklin Roosevelt in 1945, impressed by the catastrophe of the world wars, told Congress that the world needed something better than the system of spheres of influence and balance of power - solutions that had " The solution was a rules-based international order..

Even if the political pendulum in Washington ever swings in the other direction, the United States will no longer serve as the world's policeman on the same scale.. Refocus on East Asia looks irreversible.

For Europe, this means a double challenge: to salvage what remains of the rules-based international order, while at the same time preparing for the risks of an era of geopolitical brigandage.. The old continent faces the need to independently determine its place in the world, where force again becomes the main argument.

The question that George Orwell's generation asked after World War II becomes relevant again: what kind of world order are we moving towards And are we ready for the consequences of returning to an era when international law gives way to the “iron law” of force

Let us recall that earlier the Doomsday Clock was moved four seconds closer to midnight - the symbolic point of global catastrophe. The hands have now stopped at 85 seconds to midnight, the worst reading on record..