Competition between Ukraine and Turkey in the production of drones is inevitable, although structurally it can be compensated for by cooperation. In addition, Turkish manufacturers export aggressively, have a significant supply of finished products and their own political vectors for promotion. However, European states have not been very willing to purchase Turkish systems in recent years, given the political risks and dependence on Ankara. Oleg Sarkits, entrepreneur, volunteer, founder of the public organization " What place does the Ukrainian defense industry occupy in the global market for unmanned systems?.

" ) creates a window of opportunity for Ukraine in the European market, where the demand for cheap and mass-produced systems will grow sharply, and politicians will look for less conflicting suppliers,” he noted.

According to the author, China will remain one of the largest drone manufacturers in the world, and its dominance in civilian-tech and component base will make it an undesirable but inevitable player. The EU and US are publicly looking for alternatives to Chinese imports, and in this context, Ukrainian and Turkish solutions will be seen as more attractive alternatives..

After the end of the war, Russian products will return to the market. The Russian Federation will not be able to sell weapons to civilized markets, but its massive FPVs, loitering platforms and cheap strike systems will find buyers in Asia, Africa, and individual countries of the Middle East. The competition here will be direct. To occupy this niche, Ukraine will have to simultaneously fight Chinese scale, Turkish export aggression and Russian political networking in regions accustomed to Russian supplies.

Consequently, this market will be the most competitive and difficult, but it is here that Ukrainian war-tested technologies provide an advantage: countries of the Global South will look for cheap, combat-ready and proven systems, rather than testbed experiments.

Other articles by the author can be found at the link.