“Even if we admit that the Syrians know that it is good for them, we cannot assume that they all agree with this. Moreover, if they come to an agreement, there is little hope that they will allow them to enjoy. "
Butrus al-Bustani.
The quote in the epigraph belongs to the outstanding Syrian writer, poet, philologist and one of the key figures of the Arab Renaissance (Nahda). He wrote these bitter words in the essay in 1861 against the backdrop of civil conflicts between Druzes and Christians.
His pessimism about the possibility of Syrians to achieve unity and freedom in the conditions of internal schisms and external intervention echoes the words of the Ukrainian writer and politician Vladimir Vinnichenko. In May 1918, he wrote in his diary the words known to many Ukrainians: “Read the Ukrainian Istoria Treba Brom, - before that, there is one of the non -shock, no -hal -haired, before that pain, annoying, girko, dummy Perechituvati, Yak Nechasna, was blossomed, shut on National. Parshivi Shanolutzi, National Smitty, Parasiti Sell on VSI sides: hto more give more.
Ideas echoes, but not in everything. Please note: al-Bustani has hope for agreements within the Syrian society, although he admits that this is a complex process. He sees the main problem in the external forces, trying, in his opinion, to break the fabric of Syrian society into ethno -confessional pieces. Winnichenko is more helpless in his thoughts. Of course, this reflects the difference in the circumstances in which these two outstanding personalities lived and created. Not there, in the case of Vinnichenko, and without a traditional Ukrainian " However, for the sake of justice, if you read modern Syrian commentators, the “blessings” are also enough there.
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Much water has flown under the bridge since that time. Syria survived 12 years of the bloody civil war with massacres, death executions, ethnic cleaning, refugee flows and foreign intervention. After the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad and the lightning-fast seizure of power by units, until recently, the “terrorist organization” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who, after winning, returned the real name of Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is experiencing almost the most dramatic period of its modern history.
There is such a theory of dependence on the trajectory (Path Dependence Theory), explaining how previous solutions, events or conditions affect the further development of systems, organizations or economies, even if the initial circumstances are no longer relevant. She emphasizes that “history matters”, and the choice made in the past can limit or direct future opportunities. And also explains how initial decisions or random events can have long -term consequences, when the choice of a certain trajectory complicates or increases the cost of a change in the course through investments, habits, infrastructure or network effects. Blocking by groups of interests helps to maintain less effective solutions if the transition to alternative requires significant resources. In turn, the more people or resources choose a certain path, the more attractive it becomes. This can lead to monopolies or the dominance of certain standards.
This theory does not add optimism either in the Syrian or in the Ukrainian case. However, despite the completely reasonable pessimism, it leaves a number of opportunities, relying on small changes and random events in the early stages, which in the future can radically affect the result.
That is why this year is so important for the future Syria. Right now, the main guidelines or trajectories are laid, which will affect the success or failure of the Syrian project. To summarize the first year of the reign of Ahmed al-Sharaa, perhaps premature, because some of the important events are still ahead, but we will try.
Ahmed al-Sharaa received a country in which the regions for a long time acted as autonomous formations with a minimum level of interaction with the center. Consequently, the main challenge that new leaders in Damascus faced is the consolidation of the power and the unity of the country. The first step of Ash Sharaa, after he was appointed in January 2025, temporary president for the transition period, was the dissolution of all formations that fought against the regime of Bashar Assad, and the creation of unified armed forces. This is not to say that all rebel units enthusiastically perceived this news. In fact, we see a constant sabotage of this decision by the Syrian National Army (Sleep), which is closely cooperating with Turkey. The same applies to different militias, for example, Druzhsky. We will consider the conflict around Suwyida below.
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Success is considered to be an agreement concluded in early March with Syrian democratic forces (SDS). It provided for the integration of institutions of the Kurdish Autonomous Administration in the northeast of Syria to the Central Government. Observers rightly note that the ASh Sharaa Agreement with the leader of the SDS Mazlum Abdi is, rather, an act of non-aggression and now remains declarative. Of course, you can refer to the outdated problems of the Kurdish community in Syria, the collective rights of which did not previously admit, which caused distrust of the center and the expectation of the best conditions. In addition, the Kurds recently received the American military bases at their disposal, which significantly strengthened their positions. They say that the March agreement was concluded under strong pressure from the United States and, due to threats of Turkey, to begin military operations in case the Kurds refused it to sign it.
Ash Sharaa has repeatedly declared the protection of religious minorities, but a number of interfessional conflicts significantly leveled his words. Obviously, it is worth starting with Alavites - an ethno -confessional minority, who led in Syria during Assad. Tension in relations with them is quite clear. With Alavites, the Sunni majority connects the most bloody repression of the regime. It is obvious that the policy of the leading group “Separate and conquer”, inherited from the French, played an angry joke with the inhabitants of Latakia. They became an object of hatred after Assad's defeat. The events in the province of Latakia in the spring of this year became the first large -scale interethnic conflict, which led to the deaths of several thousand people - civilian and military. I will not retell the reasons for this conflict, I only note that the remnants of the Assad forces hiding in the mountains of the province tried to take control of key cities. An important role in this rebellion was played by Russia. It was her base in Khmeimim that became the center of coordination of the actions of the Asadians, from there they received weapons, and the Russians provided the transfer of part of the military personnel of the former Assad army through the territory of Syria.
Events in Latakia caused the first international crisis for al-Sharaa. The reaction to him was the creation of an independent commission, which was supposed to investigate the circumstances of these events. A constant headache for the government was an attack on Christian churches. Radical elements, of which there are many in the country, are unhappy with the policy of the new government. The militants of the Islamic State, trying to restore control in certain regions, also want to destabilize the situation. The last conflict around the Southern City of Suwrid took recently - in July. Druze living on these lands suspiciously relate to the " Any attempts by the political presence of Damascus representatives in the Druzhsky areas are perceived as an attempt on their autonomy, which they actually obtained during the civil war. Oil in the fire adds prolonged competition for resources between the Druzhsky and Bedouin population of the south of Syria. In the Druzhskaya community itself there are also different views on relations with Damascus. Part of the Druck clans is inclined to cooperation, of course, with certain reservations, while the other, previously related to the Assad regime, categorically against this.
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This, so to speak, is the internal aspect. But there is both external and his name - Israel. In December last year, Israeli troops launched an attack on the Syrian territories, in particular, in the area of the buffer zone nearby to occupied Israel by the Golan Heights. At the same time, the Israelis inflicted air strikes at the Syrian military bases. The unrest in Suoveid, the cause of which was the robbery of the Druze Bedouins, turned out to be a “good” basis for Israeli intervention. Given the fact that about 120 thousand Drucov lives in Israel, Tel Aviv saw a window of possibilities to expand the occupation zone and, referring to “humanitarian” circumstances, inflicted air strikes not only on the accumulation of government forces in the province, but also on the buildings of the Ministry of Defense and the Presidential Palace in Damascus.
As a result, the Syrians and the Israelis entered into an agreement on the ceasefire through the mediation of the United States and Turkey. This Agreement was aimed at de -escalate after Israeli airlines and accusations of attacks on the Druck community. Ahmed al-Sharaa said that Syria is not afraid of war, but wants to avoid chaos, putting the interests of the Syrians above. As of date, the shaky truce continues. Suweida’s issue will obviously be resolved after the parliamentary elections that will be held in September.
Indirect parliamentary elections - a compromise decision between the need to have a legitimate institution and maintaining control over the situation - another challenge to which the Syrian society should answer. Six months ago, after the adoption of a temporary constitution, it was assumed that the political process in Syria would begin no earlier than a few years later. But international pressure and the need to get out of international isolation to launch development programs changed these plans. The parliament (the national assembly of Syria) of 210 seats will be formed, of which 140 will be elected through the indirect system (electoral colleges), and 70 deputies will be appointed by the president. The decision on indirect elections was made due to the lack of infrastructure (there is no census, voter registry). Something similar at one time practiced the Crimean Tatar National Movement in the context of deportation.
The key question is in this equation - who the president will appoint exactly. I suppose that most of the appointed deputies will represent national minorities. This conclusion follows from the tasks facing the country: to ensure legitimacy in the eyes of the population, the international community and avoid criticism due to the weak representation of minorities. In this case, Ash Sharaa can receive a pool of politicians who will owe him personally, which will ensure the control of the political process.
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In front of Ahmed, Ash Sharaa has another important challenge, this time-international. The active participation of the American ambassador in Turkey by Tom Barrak in Syrian affairs, a personal meeting with the mediation of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Muhammad Bin Salman with US President Donald Trump, the removal of American sanctions and the exclusion of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the list of terrorist organizations-undoubtedly, great success. Restoration of the work of Embassies of Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, France indicates the political recognition of the new regime. Some of these embassies work fully, some are still in recovery mode, but the direction of movement is clear. Now the ASh-Sharaa should visit the September session of the UN General Assembly-and the recognition process will be completed.
But there were problems. Two countries - Russia and China - were categorically against. This explains the visit of the Syrian delegation to Moscow with an attempt to settle this issue. As far as one can understand, the goal of Russia in Syria is to preserve its presence at the military bases and the economic presence in the country. No matter how the Syrians want to get rid of the Russians (and they really want it), the right veto makes them look for a compromise with Moscow. At least temporary. With China is even more difficult. Beijing considers thousands of Uyghurs who fought in the ranks of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as a direct threat to his national interests. He requires the issuance of these fighters, to which the Syrian government, if he wants to maintain a fragile world, will never go. Therefore, in Damascus, they are concerned about what economic benefit is ready to get China in order to unlock the participation of Ash Sharaa in the General Assembly.
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And what Ukraine? Remember, in 2022, the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad recognized the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and the AR Crimea? Ukraine has broken diplomatic relations with Syria, which was absolutely fair. In December 2024, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrei Sibiga visited Damascus, where he met with the leadership of the country and President Ahmed al-Sharaa. There is a fundamental decision of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky on the restoration of diplomatic relations. However, formal procedures are still not completed. Of course, Ukrainian structures in Syria are present, but not diplomatic. The honorary consulate is very good, but it will not replace a full -fledged diplomatic representation.
As of today, consular services are provided by the Embassy of Ukraine in Lebanon and the Embassy of Syria in Romania. The delay in restoring diplomatic relations, or even the abolition of the previous decision on the recognition of the occupied territories, is due to the Russian factor. You can discuss this for a long time about this, but the fact remains: while Syria will depend on Moscow and Russia will have levers for destabilization, the situation is more likely not to change. ? No. If diplomatic channels do not work, others need to be developed - military, scientific, public, promoting their interests with a “soft” force. Moreover, there are enough grounds for this, although a little less opportunities.
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