Pressure and requirements to stop the war in Ukraine at all costs can give the Kremlin " In particular, Moscow can use the desire for the world to strengthen control of the seized territories, prevent Ukraine from entering into NATO and provide it with reliable security guarantees.

This was stated by the authors of the report of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) \? At a briefing in Berlin on February 10. As stated in the document, the new administration in the United States, which was a key partner of Ukraine, "

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In particular, the aggressor country can use the desire for peace to strengthen control of the occupied territories, prevent Ukraine from entering into NATO or providing it with reliable security guarantees, as well as strengthen its army and try to force Kyiv to return to its sphere of influence.

At the same time, the plan of the new US administration is not yet clear, and if they take a more stringent position in relation to the Russian Federation than expected, "

This conclusion is made on the basis that recently cracks have begun to appear in the geopolitical position of Russia, " Independent sources estimate the number of soldiers of the Russian Army killed in Ukraine in 120 thousand in order to compensate for these losses, the Kremlin must offer recruits astronomical payments.

Russia is also faced with problems to replace lost equipment: 80% of the production of tanks and armored vehicles consists of renovated equipment from warehouses. A similar situation with artillery systems and ammunition, the report of the Munich Security Conference says.

Production expansion options are limited. At the same time, the authors admit that the estimates regarding the remaining potential are different.

The Russian Federation is faced with economic uncertainty, there are risks of stagflation (when stagnation in production occurs simultaneously with inflation), revenues from energy exports in two and a half years have almost doubled, and a drop in oil prices will lead to serious problems for the Russian economy.

" This will partially depend on the international community that should decide whether it will give Russia a space for this, whether it will crush and demand respect for the international order based on the rules, ”the authors of the report concluded.

It is also indicated that "

However, despite the self -confidence with which the Russian Federation proclaims its special position in the world, "

“Russia is the Potemkin Power,” the authors of the section, which is called in the report “Tsarist Gambit”, write.

It is noted that the Russian Federation continues to abandon serious challenges to stronger rivals. In particular, it threatens Europe due to a large-scale campaign for misinformation, intervention in the elections, sabotage, attempts to kill and rattling with nuclear weapons, the authors are warned by the authors.

The report is presented on the eve of the Munich Security Conference, which will be held on February 14-16. It is expected that it will meet the Ukrainian delegation led by President Vladimir Zelensky and representatives of the new US administration.