Slovakia was overwhelmed by a powerful wave of protests against the authorities, which many in this country compare with the Ukrainian Maidan. In terms of scale and nature, protests greatly resemble promotions in Slovakia in 2018, caused by the politically motivated murder of the critical to power by Robert Fitz, journalist Yana Kutsyak and his bride Martina Kushnerova, after which Fitzo retreated. Prime Minister's resignation is the main requirement of the current protesters. How real different scenarios of the development of events are and what forecasts can be outlined? Fit will retreat or not? Are the Slovaks ready to vote for the pro -Western and pro -Ukrainian opposition, which is now massively supported in squares even in small towns?

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The logic of events really in many ways resembles Euromaidan. Protests in Ukraine in November 2013 also did not immediately concern the resignation of Viktor Yanukovych, the initial topic was European integration. Slovaks began their demonstrations with a general demand so that Fitz did not forget that Slovakia is Europe, and stops cooperating with Putin. Now on the table already requirements for the resignation of power and early elections. Fitz lost support in parliament, and in the country - a political crisis.

With the forecasting of the political situation in Slovakia, as well as with the forecasting of Trump's actions: the most predictable is that nothing can be predicted for sure and nothing can be excluded. Slovak political scene - unpredictable by definition. However, in Slovakia, some schemes are often repeated, which allows some analogies to draw.

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A few arguments why the fitz can lose.

The current protests are striking in scale and the fact that people massively took to the streets not only in Bratislava and Kositz, that is, in the two largest cities. Fitness would like to see the situation like that: they say, I am not supported by the “Bratislava coffee shop”, but I have ordinary people from small towns and sat in the east, north and in the center. So it was possible to say in the fall, but now it is definitely wrong. In Leptovsky Mikulash near Tatras - a typical district city (not the largest, but known throughout Slovakia, such as Mukachevo in Ukraine), more than 10% of the population came to protests, similar indicators in other small towns.

Fit really lost support in society. Sociological surveys show that in December most of the Slovaks did not trust power, only a third of the country's citizens were satisfied with the Government of Fitzo. And this has passed only a year of his premier. In January, the support of the authorities is even lower. Now in polls in the first place “Progressive Slovakia”, in the second - “death”, and the opposition would have a slight advantage in parliament. Dissatisfaction is also noticeable among the Smerah nuclear electorate, that is, less protected circles of society, residents of small cities and villages, which is confirmed by the turnout for protests.

Where does this discontent come from? The reason for the success of the fit in the 2023 elections was a political chaos caused by an unstable democratic coalition in 2020–2023, in particular an emotionally unstable former prime minister (and then Minister of Finance) Igor Matovich. The political crisis was then so strong that people wanted at least some stability. The “Old Fit” was imperfect, but people thought like this: “Perhaps serious scandals and accusations were connected with him, but then, at least, there was a stable power and many professionals in the government”.

Indeed, Fitzo cabinets in 2012-2018 were not so populist and anti -European as the current. Fitz then tried to build the “solid core of European integrations” on the basis of the Eurozone and the Union of Bratislava with Vienna and Berlin, and the outsiders were Warsaw, Prague and Budapest, who did not want closer European integration. There were many reformers and respected experts in the power and around it, the economy developed, investments came to Slovakia.

Slovaks voted in 2023 for the " Well, and how much can you listen to that America paid the opposition, and stability guarantees only cooperation with Moscow? Even in Ukraine, such a rhetoric worked for some voters, maybe back in the year 2013. The current fifivo is a “late fit”, a classical situation, like all political leaders with authoritarian inclinations, which for a long time attracted something else, but at the end they became a caricature on themselves.

So the feeder entered this phase. He first became the prime minister back in 2006. And now he is in the same state in which Vladimir Machir, the previous semi -authoritarian leader in 2006, was in 2006.

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And another argument for possible resignation: the fifivo has already banned the formal majority in parliament. Recently, four pro -Western deputy of the Coalition Party “Glass”, which will no longer vote as the government, announced this. The reason is the protests and pro -Russian radicalism of the fit. The “voice” is a party of former moderate politicians of Smera, who left with their leader, current President Peter Pellegrini. Now the Government Fitzo can count on 72–75 people out of 150 deputies of parliament. However, he still has the opportunity to “buy” separate voices every time and hold on to the election of 2027.

An alternative, but what? The main trump card of the fitz is the weakness of the opposition.

Fitz has already stated that in 2018 he retreated under the pressure of protests, but it was a mistake. And now, they say, he has a richer life experience, and he will not retreat.

He really has something to lose-as once Yanukovych. He was suspected not only of ordering the murders of journalist Jan Kutsyak and his bride Martina Kushnerova, but also in the management of de facto Mafia. In 2020–2023, investigations continued, and it was already going to ensure that the fitz was behind bars (like his associates) for many years. He is now fighting not so much for power as for personal freedom. And, as always, he still has the opportunity to escape to Moscow (perhaps this question was concerned with his infamous visit to Putin).

Suppose that the feed will still lose the majority, and early parliamentary elections will be held. This is quite real and even typical for Slovakia. But it is known that approximately 30–40% of Slovaks are prone to Russian propaganda. How realistic is that they will vote for a democratic opposition, and not for even more odious nationalists?

Really. Those people, of course, will not vote for “progressive Slovakia”, but for pro-European Catholic conservatives from the Christian democratic movement (KDH) already yes. Slovakia is divided into eight self -governing edges (corresponds to areas), and their leaders are elected in direct elections. The latter were held in 2022, during the reign of the pro -Western office of Eduard Geger, but even then there was a political crisis and an unpopular government. Of the eight edges, only two won the candidates not even Smetra, but a more moderate “voice”. And they won the western regions. The East, stereotypically considered the “pro -Russian”, chose quite normal European politicians, democrats who do their own business very well, work closely with Transcarpathia and are pro -Ukrainian.

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Now the leader of the ratings is a relatively new liberal party " Her leader, possible future Prime Minister Mikhal Shima, was recently in Kyiv. To create a government, a wide, difficult coalition of liberals with conservatives will be needed, maybe with the “voice”, that is, the current allies of “Smera”.

However, Slovakia saw this all in 1998–2006, 2010–2012, 2020–2023. It was never easy, twice ended with early elections (2012, 2023), but Slovakia is a story and such coalitions that replace populists, make reforms, bring the country to the EU, support Ukraine, then fall under the pressure of errors and quarrels. Like Ukrainian reformers.

Slovakia is not Hungary, which is inherent in the consolidation of power. Political Slovakia is more reminiscent of Moldova, where everything is not fully defined. It is difficult to assume how the current protests will end. But one thing can be said for sure - Slovakia once again a process that has already passed.

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