The cross-border carbon tax, which has already begun to operate in the European Union, applies to 15-17% of Ukrainian exports to the EU, and total export losses in 2026-2030. may exceed $4.6 billion. Already in 2026 (the first year of full implementation of CBAM), Ukraine’s export losses will amount to $202 million, while in 2030 this figure will increase to $1.4 billion. Through CBAM, Ukraine can stop exporting cement, fertilizers, cast iron, square billets and long products to the EU after 2030. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities must take urgent measures and achieve a postponement of the NWAM for our country.
This is stated in a study by GMK Center.
" Among the priority measures, respondents name personnel training (66.4%), preferential financing - low-interest loans (60%) and grants (53%), as well as improving the provision of advanced technologies and equipment (36%). In this regard, the Ukrainian authorities and specialized associations need to strengthen educational and consulting work with Ukrainian exporters,” the study emphasizes.
However, the key importance should be for Ukraine to receive preferences from the EU to mitigate the effect of CBAM, Center analysts indicate - in particular, this could be the use of a declarative approach to goods imported from Ukraine to the EU that are subject to CBAM for the recovery period, as proposed by the European Business.
The GMK Center emphasized: from a legal point of view, the European Union has all the necessary tools to provide Ukraine with conditions that mitigate the impact of CBAM. In particular, according to Art.. 30 of the CBAM Regulation, in the event of an unforeseen event related to CBAM and having devastating consequences, the European Commission may initiate changes and the introduction of temporary measures to overcome these exceptional circumstances. According to Ukrainian experts and businesses, a full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine fully falls within the criteria of such an unpredictable event.
“Under current conditions, Ukrainian business is actually forcing the Ukrainian authorities to answer uncomfortable questions about the negotiating position and prospects for a solution on the CBAM issue. Ukraine still does not have a position paper, strategy or action plan regarding CBAM at the state level, unlike all other EU trading partners who have been actively negotiating for 3 years,” comments Stanislav Zinchenko, Chairman of the Industrial Ecology Committee.
According to Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy, Trade Representative of Ukraine, who appears to be the only government representative dealing with this issue, it is not yet clear what the final decision will be, but it will not be a complete non-application of CBAM for Ukraine, analysts point out.
“As a result, less than a year before the onset of “unexpected” challenges in the form of CBAM for the Ukrainian economy, we have general and “florid” responses from government representatives and the office of the Deputy Prime Minister for European integration - and, in fact, indicative inaction of the Ukrainian authorities, which.
We would like to remind you that Politico previously stated that Europe is helping Ukraine with financing with one hand, and with the other it is introducing a carbon tax due to which Ukraine will lose 1.4 billion euros annually.. But this damage can be avoided if you start negotiations with the EU and receive benefits, in particular, a postponement of the introduction of this duty in Ukraine due to the war.