On January 20, the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, took place in Washington.. He took the oath and officially became head of state.

The main emphasis was on domestic policy issues, the fight against illegal immigration, on taking away the Panama Canal from Panama and China, on American astronauts who will plant the US flag on Mars and on the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement - that's how Trump. As for Ukraine, during the inauguration Trump. As for Ukraine, during the inauguration Trump avoided the topic of the war in our country.

- In his inauguration speech, Trump never mentioned the war in Ukraine.. the policy of the new administration on the issue of a peaceful settlement of the war will follow. the situation has changed somewhat. Asked when he planned to resolve the conflict, Trump replied: “We will try to do it as quickly as possible.”. , adding that he would meet him “perhaps very soon”. Trump did? – As for the inauguration, there are no surprises here. This is indeed, I would say, such a celebration of the winners, which should have emphasized the scale and depth of Donald Trump’s victory. That is, with his inaugural speech, he emphasized that he proceeds from the fact that he received a very broad, very convincing, reliable mandate in order to change America in accordance with his vision of its development and priorities. He also made it clear that he will focus on implementing his campaign promises.. This concerns a number of problems in the economy, and above all, it is overcoming inflation. The second such key topic is migration..

If you look at the speech itself, then, to be honest, in addition to what was said there about the landing on Mars, which aroused general enthusiasm, I personally remember precisely the phrase about the Panama Canal. And although this is a formal topic. not related to Ukraine, given the prospect of Trump's plan to stop the war in Ukraine in the near future, these statements create a very alarming atmosphere. Because Trump again, and he spoke about this again in front of the whole world, he makes it clear that there are rules for great powers, such as the United States, and there are rules for weaker, smaller states, which, perhaps, he includes. It is the latter who must take into account the interests of great states. This is a rather negative development ahead of his meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, where they will discuss how they plan to stop the war in Ukraine. In fact, Trump violates this principle of the inviolability of borders, which underlies the international legal system. That is, ideologically, I conclude that this is not very different from the position of current Russia and Putin and his concept of expanding borders.

In principle, from what he told journalists about the topic of the war in Ukraine, from this I conclude that the settlement plan, firstly, is still in the works, we only know its individual elements, which only increase pessimism. Secondly, that Trump plans to meet with Putin, and in the context of what I already said, this is their ideological coincidence, this also creates a disturbing basis for how he will act. Given that Trump has determined that ending the war in Ukraine is one of his two absolute foreign policy priorities, and that he needs to free up his hands to deal with domestic problems, fulfill his campaign promises, plus focus on relations with China,. Which are based on the interests of Trump, from the interests, as he understands them, of the States, and which absolutely, I assume, may not take into account the interests of Ukraine.

– Regarding the first decisions, Trump suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days. Within the specified period, a review will be carried out to determine whether the assistance is consistent with the political goals of the new administration.. " “This is all about other things and does not concern military assistance to Ukraine,” said Andrey Kovalenko, head of the Center for Pilot Research.. Your vision of what will happen with the help? – It’s hard to say. To understand Trump, you need to sit next to him in the Oval Office. Of course, such steps create danger. Moreover, we must take into account the fact that during the hearings in the Senate, Secretary of State of the new administration Marco Rubio critically assessed Biden’s policies and the policy of assistance to Ukraine, calling them “ineffective”. Actually, this is the general position of Trump, who has repeatedly said that too much assistance is being provided to Ukraine. That is, this really creates and strengthens the risks that I have already mentioned, and you need to be prepared that the issue of assistance will be transferred to a loan rather than a grant basis, Trump also spoke about this. Therefore, the emergence of problems with the help of more than real developments.

– The US energy sector will declare a state of emergency. This will be an intensified drilling program that will increase oil and gas production to reduce world prices. – Of course, what was the problem under President Biden?. On the one hand, the Democrats were not ready to increase production, because there were considerations related to negative climate change, environmental protection, and it was these factors that did not allow increasing oil production, which could reduce world prices and, accordingly, seriously damage the Russian military. They were cautious about the last moment of introducing sanctions against gas and especially the oil industry in Russia. Because it could, on the other hand, increase oil prices and hit domestic fuel prices in the US. Homeland Security Mike Sullivan.

If we forget and do not enter into the discussion whether this is bad for the environment, for climate change, and Trump again withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change, then of course a decrease in oil prices is beneficial for us. This reduces the opportunity for Russia to obtain funds for warfare. But Trump will do this regardless of this strategic goal for us. the main one in this direction.

– Regarding Trump’s aggressive statements on the Panama Canal, you have already noted that this is a definite threat to the world. On the one hand, Trump says that “I will stop all conflicts and wars, I will be a peacemaker that the world has never seen, and on the other hand, I will take what I need no matter what.”. – In these statements, when they just began, one could see a kind of political show program from Trump, but it is already clear that we need to take them seriously, because they testify to a lot. Among other things, these statements indicate that there is an evolution in US foreign policy doctrine and policy.. That is, for a very long time Trump’s statements were perceived as a policy of neo-isolationism, but now we must still admit that this is not a policy of pure isolationism. This, I would say, is America above all else in the world.. This means that the procedure for protecting the interests of the United States, external dominance of the United States in the world, is recognized as not only possible, but also desirable.

Regarding the use of force to resolve these issues, when Trump talks about military force, it seems to me that first of all he expects that the very threat of its use from the United States will be sufficient to ensure compliance with demands and the realization of American interests. One of the former American politicians said that the difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden believed in American principles and values, but did not believe in our strength. Trump is the opposite - he believes in American strength, that it can be effective, but is indifferent to the primordial American principles. And now many American researchers are saying that the policy that Trump is announcing is a return to expansionism, and not even in the same form as it was in the 20th century, but as it was in the 19th century. That is why he speaks about Canada and Greenland, because according to Trump, all this is America and ensuring American interests on the American continent. That is, everything looks quite complicated, but I would say that for us these statements about Panama, and about Canada, and about Greenland create quite alarming conditions, especially in the prospect of negotiations between Trump and Putin.

– Regarding China, which they say will be the main focus of the new administration. So far, Trump's tone does not seem bellicose. Thus, the elected US President has already spoken with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and wants to visit this country. Such a visit could take place in the coming months. The inauguration was attended by Deputy Chairman of the People's Republic of China Han Zheng, a rather serious person in the Chinese hierarchy of power. During a meeting with US Vice President-elect Vance, he said that China is ready to work with the US for stable growth of relations. As for counteraction, it was assumed that on the first day of his presidency Trump would begin to actively act in this direction, but so far nothing in relation to China. That is, this is an invitation to the Chinese to negotiate? What to expect in the relations of the most influential countries in the world in the near future? – If you look at Trump’s first tenure, he is trying to avoid, say, bringing the situation to a boiling point in relations with China. That is, in order for all this to be more or less regulated, there will always be opportunities for some kind of compromise. With China, he always tried to concentrate on economic issues. Always tried to reach some kind of compromise acceptable to the United States. Therefore, the issue of tariffs, these statements about almost 60% tariffs on Chinese goods - this is such a negotiating position in order to increase pressure on China. He hopes it might work..

At the same time, speaking about his personal interests, I would advise you to pay attention to the situation with TikTok. That is, Trump was the first to draw attention to the danger of TikTok for the security of the United States. However, there are two points. First, he used TikTok extensively during the election campaign and was very pleased. Plus, that being said, people close to the social network made significant contributions to Trump's re-election campaign and now he has changed his position and given TikTok the opportunity to comply with demands to separate from its main Chinese investor and sever its ties with the Chinese government.

So, on the one hand, he has not completely given up on allowing, say, TikTok to limit or stop its activities, given that they pose a threat to the security of the United States. On the other hand, he is trying to find some kind of compromise, based, I believe, in this case, primarily on his personal interests. That is, with China we will always see this kind of attempt to balance between harsh statements, steps and still leave the opportunity for a certain compromise. And, by the way, it is very significant that now in the United States there is serious talk of the possibility that the fate of Taiwan could become a bargaining chip in Trump’s game with China. Which, again, is quite an alarming signal for our interests and prospects.