The inauguration of each new US president turns into an event of planetary proportions - in accordance with the influence of this country on global politics and economics. However, what we could observe in the United States itself and the world in anticipation of Donald Trump taking office forces us to look for other, even more expressive, epithets. Sometimes it seems that after January 20, 2025, when Trump takes the oath of office, a new period in modern history will begin.. The world has become more unstable and life-threatening. Many Americans pin their hopes for the best on the coming of a new-old president who promises to restore order to everything - domestically and globally.. Their expectations are shared by a considerable number of residents of other countries located in zones of war and conflict.. Are these expectations justified In search of an answer, let's look at the intentions of the 47th President of the United States.
It is striking that, compared to 2016, when his electoral success came as a surprise to himself, Trump has thoroughly prepared for his new presidential term.. Both in the field of programmatic issues and in terms of the selection of personnel who should implement his plans.
The driving force behind Trump's " I think those who, out of inertia, advise “dividing everything in half” and not taking the president’s provocative statements too seriously are mistaken: unfortunately, Trump’s political show is increasingly transforming into real politics. At the same time, he is not limited to the desire inherent in all top-ranking politicians to simply leave a mark on the history of the country. Trump cherishes the ambition to literally “undermine” the modern system of administrative management in the United States, radically change the rules of the game in politics, inflict a crushing defeat on the traditional elites, multiply the so-called deep state by zero, relying on the Republican majority in both houses of Congress, which is completely under his control at this stage, and. Trump's intentions not only reflect his personal emotions: they resonate with the anti-system sentiments of voters and are his response to the universal demand for real change in the country.
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An important element of the new president’s domestic political strategy is the intention to significantly expand the powers of the White House and the executive branch as a whole, which is reminiscent of the “imperial presidency” that Richard Nixon once tried to create. For example, contrary to the practice existing in the United States, Trump believes that the president has the exclusive right to control federal spending and can influence the work of the Federal Reserve System of the virtually independent US central bank.
Trump and his team intend to launch their “shock and awe” attack on Inauguration Day. He can be expected to issue more than 100 executive orders on issues that were prioritized during the election campaign and won him the support of a majority of American voters. In particular, we are talking about tough measures to regulate migration, changes in energy policy to remove restrictions on the production of combustible fuels, simplification of the procedure for dismissal of federal employees, and a review of vaccination policies. Some of the executive orders may have a noticeable and immediate impact on the work of the government, others will be largely symbolic, sending the message to the American public that “things will be different from now on.”.
At the same time, Trump and Congressional Republicans began an active search for ways to implement the legislative initiatives of the new administration. The possibility of introducing one, or most likely several bills, is currently under discussion to extend the tax cuts enacted during Trump's first presidency, improve security at the US border and deport illegal migrants, changes in energy policy, as well as military spending.. Compared to executive orders, which only require the president's signature to be enacted, bills will require more time, effort, and investment of political capital to pass through Congress, especially given the fragility of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.. In addition, the countdown to the next midterm elections in 2026 has already begun: given the possibility of losing dominance in Congress, Trump and Trump’s “army” have limited time to implement his legislative program.
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On Inauguration Day, the new Senate is expected to join the House of Representatives and pass a bill to detain and deport illegal migrants who have committed even minor criminal offenses (10 Democratic senators may support the Republicans).
The newly elected US President meets the inauguration with a practically formed team, the main characters of which are undergoing the Senate confirmation process. The most difficult situation with applicants for the positions of Secretary of Defense, Director of the FBI and National Coordinator for Intelligence. All of them belong to the cohort of ultra-loyalists who should play a key role in implementing Trump’s idea of \u200b\u200ba “revenge presidency” and “purging” his enemies from the federal agencies subordinate to them. Despite numerous challenges to their views and lack of necessary experience, they all have a chance to make it through Senate purgatory: so strong is the desire of Republican senators to please Trump. I note that of the 17 Republican legislators who at one time voted for Trump’s impeachment, only five remain in the current Congress.
With the exception of the odious characters mentioned above, the rest of the new president’s appointees generally fit into the existing US algorithm for appointing members of the presidential cabinet and heads of central government bodies. Most of them have the necessary competence and professional experience needed to perform their official duties, or at least a certain political background. However, these traits are only applications to the most important criterion - almost religious loyalty to the “boss”. His subordinates are assigned the role of implementers of the decisions of the president, known for his tendency to be guided by his own emotions, ideas and intuition, to act, often without taking into account the opinions of experts or even contrary to their recommendations. For him, as evidenced by the first cadence, he is also characterized by variability in the assessment of his subordinates, which can significantly reduce the time they remain in positions. In this sense, it is very interesting to see how long the “romance” between two megalomaniacs - Donald Trump and Elon Musk - will last. The latter is causing increasing irritation among the president’s inner circle and the presidential “fan club”.
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In anticipation of the inauguration, Trump did everything possible to push Joe Biden into the background - both in domestic politics and on the international stage.. It was to him that the attention of the American and international media was riveted; it was to his Florida residence that a line of heads of leading American corporations lined up (including those who had previously been critical of him) and leaders of foreign states.
Even before officially taking office, Trump tried to exert a significant influence on world politics. Obviously, this was most noticeable in the Middle East, where his special envoy actively joined the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. During the transition period, the outlines of Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine became somewhat clearer, which he identified as his urgent priority in world politics.
Compared to campaign statements about 24 Hours, Trump admits that ending the war in Ukraine is a huge task that will take at least six months to complete.. Next, let's look at Marco Rubio's statements at the Senate hearings. According to him, the war in Ukraine has “reached a dead end”. Although he believes that Russia cannot be allowed to take over all of Ukraine, Kyiv will not be able to return all sovereign territories controlled by Russia. In order to achieve peace agreements, not only Russia, but also Ukraine and the United States must make concessions. Correctly noting that sanctions are a lever of US influence on Russia, Rubio suggests the possibility of weakening them. Defense Minister candidate Pete Hegseth previously spoke about the impossibility of Ukraine returning to the 2022 borders, and Kevin Kellogg spoke about the possibility of easing the sanctions regime..
Thus, the Trump team agrees to the actual division of Ukraine and in the future does not exclude at least a partial return to normal relations with Russia. At the same time, Trump does not plan to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, crosses out our Euro-Atlantic prospects and publicly admits to understanding Russia’s negative “feelings” about Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
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In this context, a future meeting or conversation between an American president and a Russian dictator causes me deep concern. Especially after statements seemingly unrelated to Ukraine about the annexation of Greenland and restoration of control over the Panama Canal, including the possibility of using a forceful scenario. They clearly showed that Trump is convinced that there are some rules of behavior for powerful states like the United States, and completely different ones for weaker countries that must submit to the will of the “big guys.”. He also actually questioned the principle of the inviolability of borders - one of the fundamental principles of modern international law.
More generally, Trump's approach to foreign policy has seen a transformation of \! \! +”, when US dominance in the world is possible and even desirable while minimizing resource costs and global responsibility, avoiding involvement in military conflicts with powerful rivals. There is an active drift towards expansionism, characteristic of the United States in the 19th century: American analysts coined the term “continentalism”, meaning Trump’s intention to ensure the exclusive influence of the United States on the American continent in the spirit of a new version of the “Monroe Doctrine”.
The world according to Trump is very similar to the world according to Putin, whom the American leader treats with constant respect. It is symptomatic that the Kremlin dictator wants to negotiate with Trump about the war in Ukraine. Will the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” become an empty phrase after their negotiations
On the eve of the inauguration, it can be stated that the honeymoon continues in Trump’s relations with most of the American public: a favorable wind fills the sails of his political ship. According to the latest CNN poll, 56% of Americans believe that the economic situation in the country will improve within a year, 55% approve of Trump's actions during the transition period, the president's popularity level has reached his highest level of 46%..
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What happens next will depend on Trump’s fulfillment of his election (mostly populist) promises, primarily about taming inflation and improving the economic condition of ordinary US residents, which does not fit well with his intention to sharply increase tariffs on imported goods from a number of countries. His leadership skills will be tested in the near future in the fight against catastrophic fires in California and overcoming their consequences.
Ukrainians, like the rest of the non-American world, need to assume that we have no choice but to seek the most effective means of interacting with the leader chosen by the voters of the United States. And this must be done, despite his superiority, narcissism, emotional swings and variability of character. The main burden of efforts in this direction falls on the shoulders of our leadership, politicians and diplomats. It is important for Ukrainian society as a whole to understand the futility of relying on the fact that “Trump will come and solve everything”. If he decides, he will decide based on his own interests.. In order to survive the fight against the Russian aggressor, not only the extreme efforts of Ukraine’s Western partners are needed. We need remobilization of the entire Ukrainian society, when all aspects of its life are subordinated to this goal. We need a new quality of government that would meet the criticality of the situation.
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