Canada has close cultural and historical ties with the United States - both countries were colonies of Great Britain, are predominantly English-speaking and are part of the Anglo-Saxon world. They have the longest border line in the world (about 9 thousand. km).

The US and Canada fought on the same side in both world wars, Korea and the Persian Gulf.; founded NATO and have close economic ties - they, together with Mexico, formed a single free trade area CUSMA. Also, in addition to NATO membership, the United States and Canada formed a joint North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), within which the troops of these countries jointly defend the airspace of North America.

However, all these commonalities do not mean that countries should unite into one state - and even more so, Canada should not become the 51st US state, no matter how much Donald Trump would like it. Even if we imagine that countries could unite, then, most likely, the population of Canada in these territories would form several states, in accordance with geographical, economic, cultural and other factors that influence the formation of regions in different states. And certainly the whole of Canada would not become one giant state, an annex to the USA.

The United States already has experience of significant expansion of its territory (the modern area of \u200b\u200bthe United States is many times larger than that occupied by 13 rebellious British colonies at the end of the 18th century), and only sparsely populated Alaska formed one state with its entire vast territory. Other large pieces of land that became part of the United States in various ways formed several states. Therefore, we can assume that it would be the same with Canada.

Canada itself consists of 10 provinces and three territories and is the second largest country in the world (occupies almost 10 million sq.. km. Accordingly, having united with the United States, they would have formed the largest country in the world, with an area of \u200b\u200bmore than almost 20 million square kilometers. However, out of more than 40 million Canadians, only about 13% support the idea of \u200b\u200bunification with the United States. There are powerful political forces in Canada that are strongly opposed to joining the United States.

" Period," And this, if we discard apocalyptic scenarios with brutal aggression like the Russian one against Ukraine, is the main factor that makes the project of integrating Canada into the United States unfeasible.

Just three months ago, few could have imagined such an analysis. But in conditions close to the real world, that is, if we discard the idea of \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200boccupying Canada, the integration of its liberal population into the American political system will bury all the ambitions of the Republican Party for the coming decades. That is, it is extremely unprofitable for the initiators of this controversy to increase the US population by tens of millions more potential voters of their main competitors. This is confirmed by statistics: 21% of Canadians surveyed on this issue would support Trump in the election, but more than two-thirds would vote for Harris.

Moreover, in the conditions of the American electoral system in the presidential race, all electoral votes from the new territories can go to the Democratic candidate.

Therefore, when the populist fervor from public attacks on the part of the extravagant American leader subsides, on a rational plane the discussion about the unification of the USA and Canada will unfold in a completely different direction.

Donald Trump seems to have managed to complete the minimum task without yet becoming a full-fledged president. The ultra-liberal Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is inconvenient for him, has already resigned (will remain in office until March 9). His resignation was not provoked by Trump’s statements themselves, but the position of the new American leader was the last straw in the sea of \u200b\u200bproblems that in recent years have befallen the once extremely popular politician.

Thus, de facto, partial integration of Canada into the American political space has already occurred. If the US President can “remove” the Canadian Prime Minister, whom his entourage disparagingly calls the Governor (interestingly, the country is actually formally headed by the Governor General - a representative of the King of Great Britain, since Canada is a member of the British Commonwealth), then theoretically Trump can also influence the election of a new one. But there is no movement in the opposite direction - Canadian politicians have no influence on the election of the American president or members of Congress. In a democracy, this state of affairs is more beneficial to Washington than full integration, at least while conservatives rule on Capitol Hill.

However, some type of integration may be the task of the new administration at most.. This could be something like a union state or some form of association - in which the American political establishment will take control of all the strategic resources and industries of its northern neighbor (Arctic coast, defense order, raw materials, etc.). ), but in return will not allow Canadian citizens to manage this common project. And this is where the fight can really start..

Donald Trump will try to strike while the iron is hot - to impose his will while Canada has a weak and too unpopular prime minister in power. Therefore, it is likely that Trump may announce his project for further interaction between the United States and Canada (a real plan, not unfounded statements) at the inauguration itself. And in the future, the struggle will take place over the textual wording in the agreement itself of the future project, which Canada most likely will not be able to completely refuse.

The United States is now the largest importer of Canadian products, accounting for 77% of Canadian exports ($421 billion versus $353 billion in US imports in 2023). That is, there is a trade deficit of almost $70 billion, but Canada's ambassador to the United States, Kristen Hillman, notes that the US population is ten times larger than Canada's, so if you count trade per capita, Canada is significantly ahead of its neighbors in importing goods. The parties also invested more than one trillion US dollars in each other in 2022 ($438.8 billion in the US and $589.3 billion in Canada).

Although Canada has practically no armed forces - its 63,000-strong regular army is in extremely poor condition, the White House is still considering using economic leverage to force Canada to integrate. Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods and services.

Dimitri Anastakis, a professor of business history at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, notes that the United States could relocate its automotive production from Canada to the United States.. But this will destroy production lines that have been developed for decades since World War II. And American automotive consumers will pay for it..

Other industries may face similar problems.. After all, the specificity of Canadian imports is that they are critical for some sectors of American industry.

Canada is also the largest importer of US products per capita.. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted that Canada is a critical importer for the products of 35 American states, but the country of the maple leaf itself supplies the United States with 25% of its crude oil needs (some oil refineries will simply shut down without oil from the Canadian province of Alberta) - therefore.

Under these circumstances, a trade war with Canada could hurt ordinary American industrial workers - a key constituency for Donald Trump.. Trudeau predicts fuel and electricity prices in the US will rise by a quarter if tariffs are introduced. On the other hand, such dependence in itself is a reason to work to bring the obstinate northern neighbor under control. Donald Trump is already working directly with the leadership of the province of Alberta, having held a meeting with its leader Danielle Smith.

What could Donald Trump's extravagant policy lead to in relation to his closest neighbors and allies

So, if Trump can annex Canada, the United States will indeed receive a significant resource base, which is currently located in Canadian fields. The US will become the largest country in the world with a huge coastline and direct access to large areas of the Arctic. US oil and fresh water reserves will be among the largest in the world.

However, Washington can get all this without such an extraordinary step, through a more sophisticated diplomatic game and diplomatic manipulations (American corporations can gain access to Canadian resources, and the military has unhindered access to the Arctic coast). But the negative consequences of such a step are more than serious..

Let's omit the apocalyptic scenario with a military invasion. Even pressure and attempts to induce Ottawa to “peacefully reunite” according to the Belarusian scenario will lead to the destruction of the current international system that Washington has been building for decades. After all, the very association with the actions of the Russian Federation in relation to Belarus (and such actions will certainly appear) is already a blow to the image of the United States as a constant generator of ideas for building an original new undoubtedly better and more perfect society.

More practical consequences are the destruction of the system of collective security, the rule of law and diplomacy of the Western world as such. After all, it is very difficult to find a historical precedent when a powerful leader took away territories and sovereignty from his closest ally. And those analogies that exist do not bode well for Washington.

All NATO countries that felt completely secure will now look for new ways to preserve their sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yes, their defense spending will increase and perhaps even exceed the coveted 5% of GDP - but to whose benefit will it be And will we, in the coming years, find ourselves in a phantasmagoric world in which Canada and Australia enter into a defense pact with China to protect themselves from US territorial encroachment