The Russian budget finances the war through oil revenues, and the war is also financed through unofficial Russian funds and lending to the Russian military-industrial complex through state banks. But stricter sanctions against Russian oil could lead to both a decrease in the aggressor’s budget revenues and problems with liquidity in the public finance system. Economist, former member of the NBU Council Vitaly Shapran told Focus about this in a commentary..

" The produced tractor continues to harvest crops for 5-10 years, plow and sow. For example, a tank produced somewhere beyond the Urals eventually becomes scrap metal in the open-hearth furnace of Krivorozhstal. This is the economic cost one way.. The more intense these costs are, the more the Russian economy loses,” says the expert..

In his opinion, oil is the basis for financing the war by Russia. “But let’s not forget that there is also profitable Rosatom, steel producer Severstal, Norilsk Nickel, RUSAL, etc.. There are several other groups of companies that mine diamonds and gold. This whole “round dance” needs to be covered by sanctions so that there are no loopholes through which the currency used to buy weapons and spare parts on the black market passes into Russia,” says Vitaly Shapran.

The expert explained: the United States is gradually increasing sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. But in 2-3 months the Russians find new ways to circumvent these sanctions, and then introduce new sanctions, and it turns out to be a game of chess.. “The current package of sanctions (new US sanctions - Focus) is very powerful and will most likely block Russian oil supplies to China and India by sea, but there is no need to expect that at 100%. Therefore, there will definitely be a negative effect for the Russian Federation, but its depth will depend on the coherence of Ukraine’s actions with its allies,” says Vitaly Shapran.

Speaking about what the Russian economy will be like in 2025, the expert noted that large-scale expenditures on war and the acceleration of these expenditures, together with the start of the Kursk operation and intensive shelling of Ukraine and Ukraine in t. military-economic goals in the Russian Federation lead to the fact that the resources of the Russian Federation are coming to an end. “If Ukraine and its allies find an opportunity to increase the losses of the Russian Federation, as was done with the closure of gas transit, or attacks on Russian refineries, then the issue of economic collapse will likely be on the agenda in the Russian Federation. In this case, the war in Ukraine will end, just as it recently ended in Syria.. Such a scenario is quite probable and can be called working,” concluded Vitaly Shapran.

Focus previously wrote that Russia continues to receive foreign currency from oil sales, but these revenues should decrease as a result of a new package of sanctions from the United States.

Let us recall that the Kremlin reported that Russia is enriching itself against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and despite anti-Russian sanctions.