Ukraine demonstrated a positive rate of economic growth in 2024, reaching 3.8%. It is important to note the gradual stabilization of the economy after the significant upheavals caused by the war with Russia. This assessment was announced by the Institute of Economic Studies (IED), which also predicts economic growth at 3% in 2025..

One of the important factors that contributed to economic growth was the development of metallurgical ore and the production of salinity ore.. Access to the Ukrainian maritime corridor, improving logistics and allowing increased export of products. Agricultural companies also actively exported their products, both through seaports and via shipping, which made it possible to improve offshore exports.

According to conventional estimates, exports of goods from Russia increased by 15% in 2024, which became a significant achievement in the minds of the war. However, imports of goods are less by 8%, which indicates a negative impact of the war on foreign economic activity, and also leads to the deprivation of essential funds for exports.

Machinery and light industry also showed positive dynamics, leading to defense agreements. In addition, the increase in wages, as a result of the labor shortage, as well as the indexation of pensions, and partial financing of international aid, stimulated the growth of domestic trade. Because of the high rates of inflation, which reached 11% during leaf fall, and the value of the hryvnia, it is not possible to completely stabilize the situation.

In its turn, the National Bank of Ukraine actively worked to support the hryvnia exchange rate and ensure macroeconomic stability, which allowed the country’s international reserves to increase to over $43 billion. Prote high level of insignificance will continue to limit investment activity in the region.

Despite the recent positive trend, enterprises were stuck with a low level of performance in their activities. The main problems were the lack of safety in the military, labor defects and problems with access to electricity. Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have led to a shortage of electricity, which has affected both business and everyday life of the population. However, this situation became an incentive for the development of a distributed generation network, and eventually facilities with a capacity of 835 MW were connected.

Forecasts for 2025 look encouraging. Remnants of internal developments and developments in the military-industrial complex (MIC) will be the main drivers of economic growth, analysts estimate real GDP growth at around 3%. The defense sector may add 1-2 percentage points to growth, which is equal to 0.4% in 2023, for an expected significant increase in funding.

Regardless of economic recovery in 2024, it is predicted that Ukraine's real GDP in 2027 will still be 10% below pre-war levels, according to KSE Institute analysts. It is important to note the distressing process of renewal and the need for further efforts to renew the economy after the war.

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