NBU predicts a long-term decline in prices of Ukraine's main export commodities. This is discussed in the inflation report of the NBU.

The reason for the fall in world prices for these goods is an increase in supply in the market.. According to NBU estimates, they will reach their pre-pandemic level in 2025 (that is, before the end of the planning horizon).

Until the third quarter of 2025, the National Bank predicts a continuous decline in world metal prices.

At the same time, in the case of steel and iron ore prices, the NBU revised the forecast upward in 2023 compared to the previous forecast. This is due to a significant increase in demand from Turkey due to the need for recovery in the regions affected by the earthquake in early February this year..

In the case of grain in 2023, prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, the supply on the market will be provided, in particular, by Ukraine thanks to the work of the grain corridor, the NBU report notes.. This year, prices will be kept from a big drop by an increase in the use of grain in the food industry and feed, as well as a decline in global stocks for the second year in a row, according to the forecast - by 2.6%.

In the future, the increase in the production of wheat and corn will entail a long-term decline in world prices, the National Bank predicts..

However, the downward trend in prices will continue not only in relation to Ukrainian products. So:.

The increase in economic activity in most regions of the world will lead to a short-term increase in world energy prices. The most important contribution will be the opening of Chinese borders for tourists and the activation of pent-up demand in China.

However, in the future, world oil prices will be under pressure due to increased production in the United States and certain countries of Latin America and Africa.. The supply of cheap (due to international sanctions) Russian oil will also be affected.

A rapid decrease in Europe’s dependence on pipeline gas from the Russian Federation against the backdrop of an increase in LNG production and supplies to the United States and other countries will lead to cheaper blue fuel throughout the forecast horizon – by the third quarter of 2025.

At the same time, high demand for LNG in Asia will keep competition for the resource with Europe, which will keep prices from plummeting, the NBU predicts..