Since January, mass protests have begun in Israel, in which protesters demand to abandon the judicial reform, because they believe that it is a direct threat to democracy in the state.. The well-known Israeli military historian, professor at the Faculty of History at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Yuval Noah Harari, in his article “A moment of frightening insight” analyzed the situation in Israel and predicted a possible scenario for the development of events. Harari hinted that he could leave Israel if the authorities do not stop destroying democracy.

“It has long been clear to me, and to other Israeli scholars, that demographic trends in Israel will eventually lead to ultra-Orthodox, religious Jews and traditionalists becoming the majority.. But it was not entirely clear what would happen when all power was concentrated in their hands,” the author writes..

He believes that February 2023 was for many Israelis "

“Some of my acquaintances and friends, including those who adhere to Jewish traditions, believed that when the religious majority was permanently in power, it would preserve democracy and allow the continued existence of a liberal society.. Others have drawn dystopian scenarios of the total destruction of Israeli democracy and liberal society, and possibly the transformation of Israel into an Iran-like theocracy.. It was difficult to judge which of them was right,” writes Harari..

The new Israeli government is in a frantic rush to pass laws that aim to eliminate the independent judiciary, as well as the ability of the judiciary to restrain the executive branch, protecting the rights of minorities..

But this is only the first stage. Once the Supreme Court hurdle is removed, this (or future) coalition will be free to pass laws restricting the civil rights of Israelis, as well as the basic human rights of both Israelis and Palestinians in the territories,” the historian explains..

According to him, everything can be on the agenda: from restricting freedom of speech, the rights of women and LGBT people, to expanding the powers of rabbinical courts and removing Arab parties from participating in elections..

“Moreover, if 61 members of the Knesset want to change the electoral system or deprive the vote of those whom they recognize as “traitors”, then it will be impossible to change the current coalition in the upcoming elections,” Harari said..

The government claims that it is not against democracy, but on the contrary, claims that the judicial coup will lead to the establishment of "

“However, the government defines democracy as the dictatorship of the majority, which provides neither for the protection of the rights of minorities, nor for checks and balances that limit the executive power.. According to this approach, in the event that 51% of voters decide to deny the right to vote to the remaining 49%, deprive employees of the right to strike, abolish academic freedom, drive LGBT people back into the closet, or shut down media that they do not like, this will be "

He notes that it is difficult to understand why the government decided to show all the cards in this way.. He suggests that such a rush may indicate an attempted coup aimed at changing the regime..

“Whatever the cause of what is happening in the end, I have no doubt about what the other side wants. She intends to abolish democracy. I would be happy to be wrong,” adds the author of the article..

According to the historian, if the government wants to convince citizens otherwise, it will have to take certain steps, and not just make statements.

According to the author, some argue that even if the current government of Israel really wants to purposefully eliminate democracy, this is not what the millions of Israelis who voted for the parties that make up the coalition want.. However, Harari explains, in practice, the bulk of the protesters against the actions of the government belong only to a part of the Israeli society..

“It seems that among those who voted for the government, the majority supports its steps, while the rest either show indifference to what is happening or do not understand what is happening,” the author writes..

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A small number of those who voted for the coalition parties say that “this is not how it is done”. But, according to the historian, this phrase is alarming.. Since it turns out that the disagreements concern only the way to achieve the final goal, and the goal itself is not called into question.

“I sincerely tried to listen to the people who voted for Likud, Shas, Yaadut ha-Torah and Religious Zionism, but did not find enough of those who would address the government with the words: “Friends, you are crazy! This is not at all what we want. We didn't choose you for this.! "

Harari also predicts what a post-democratic Israel might look like. The historian compares Israel with Hungary, in particular, points out the differences from the regime of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Many cite Hungary as an example because of the close ties between the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hungarian regime.. However, according to Harari, "

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Firstly, Hungary is a member of the EU and intends to remain in the bloc, so the institutions and laws of the European Union limit the actions of Budapest. At the same time, Israel is not part of any alliance, and there will be no such containment of the ambitions and actions of the regime..

Secondly, the author notes, the Hungarian government governs exclusively the Hungarians. Meanwhile, the Israeli government controls not only Israelis, but also millions of Palestinians in the territory.. As bad as the situation for the Palestinians under Israeli democratic governments is, Harari said, it is likely to get worse if Israeli democracy is eliminated..

Thirdly, the historian explains, the Hungarian population is aging, and the regime is predominantly based on older conservatives who are ready to support an authoritarian leader, but who do not have a particular propensity for violence.. Israel has a critical mass of young, "

Fourthly, Hungary did not face a real military threat, the country does not have a significant military force. At the same time, Israel is a regional state with one of the best armies in the world, an arsenal of nuclear weapons (according to foreign publications), advanced cyber weapons, and a keen sense of existential danger..

According to Harari, if all four factors are taken into account, then it can be assumed that "

At the same time, in the Israeli Democratic camp, new clarity has generated unprecedented responses.. Harari believes that in the short term there are good chances to stop the coup and save democracy.

However, a serious problem may come in the near future..

“Many have asked me what I personally intend to do if we fail to stop the regime coup.. It would be dishonest to deceive them - with silence or meaningless words. That's why I say in all frankness that this bus is rushing madly in a direction completely alien to me.. And if he doesn't stop, I'll get off at my stop soon,"

He believes that while the Israeli government is taking decisive steps to eliminate democracy, a minority of Israelis are involved in real resistance..

“Even if this time the liquidation attempt fails, it is safe to assume that a new attempt will be made in two years, in five or ten years.. The fight will be long and hard. And no one can predict its outcome, ”the historian notes..

He predicted what might happen if the fight fails. Harari says the end of democracy is unlikely to be the end of the State of Israel.

“But it seems to me that there can be no Zionism without democracy,” he added..

Harari believes that without freedom of speech and the protection of the rights of minorities, especially without the protection of the freedom to say what the majority does not like, a fruitful public dialogue will die, and it will be difficult to continue writing interesting books..

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The Knesset (Israel's parliament) on Monday, February 20, approved in the first reading a bill on a controversial judicial reform that led to mass protests.. Now the bill is returned to the Parliamentary Committee on the Constitution, Legislation and Justice for its preparation for the second and third readings, which are expected before the end of March..

The planned reform has been heavily criticized by opposition parties, many voices in academia and a number of members of the legal profession.. In particular, the new judicial reform provides for the transfer of control to the parliamentary majority over the process of selecting judges of the Supreme Court, as well as the abandonment of the legislative principle that allows the Supreme Court to overturn government decisions. Due to the absence of a Constitution and a Constitutional Court in Israel, the Supreme Court exercised control over the actions of the government.. Innovations threaten to drastically limit the Supreme Court's powers of judicial review and consolidate political control over the appointment of judges.

Part of society believes that this threatens the principles of democracy, namely the system of checks and balances, which allows maintaining the balance of the three branches of government.

There were also concerns that the reform could also threaten the Israeli economy, in particular, it could increase the risks of investing in Israel, which would lead to a decrease in its credit rating..