On February 6, an earthquake struck Turkey near the border with Syria, one of the most powerful in decades.. More than 11,000 people have been killed, according to the latest figures.. But scientists predict that another powerful earthquake could hit the country in the coming years, and this time Istanbul, with a population of 15 million, could be hit, Meduza reports..

The fact that an earthquake is inevitable, Okan Tuysuz, who was then the director of the Eurasian Institute of Geosciences at the Istanbul Technical University, stated back in 2006.

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" We know the place. We just don't know when exactly it will happen.. But there is a 65 percent chance that Istanbul will be hit by a magnitude 7.6 earthquake before 2030.. And this is a very high probability,” the scientist estimated the likelihood of a powerful earthquake in Istanbul in the coming years..

Since then, scientists have published many more calculations that confirm this alarming prediction.. Thus, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of " The magnitude of the earthquake was predicted not only by Turkish researchers, but also by experts from the US Geological Survey, from Italy, France, Japan, and even from international insurance companies..

The risk is related to the geological location of Istanbul. It is located at the junction of the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates, 15-20 kilometers from the section of the North Atlantic Fault, which runs under the Sea of \u200b\u200bMarmara.

The movement of plates along the fault has led to large earthquakes for many centuries.. Over the past 500 years, powerful cataclysms have happened six to seven times. One of the most catastrophic earthquakes occurred in 1766, when a branch of a fault ruptured near the city.. This is the scenario that scientists fear now..

The last major earthquake closest to Istanbul was in 1999.. The epicenter of the disaster was then located in the city of Izmit, 90 kilometers to the south.; more than 17 thousand people died. This was already the seventh since 1939 in a series of earthquakes with a magnitude of over 7.0, which " Powerful tremors are gradually "

A new earthquake can happen already in the city itself, and become more destructive than the previous ones. As follows from a report prepared by the Istanbul City Hall with the support of seismologists in 2020, all 39 urban districts will suffer to varying degrees from the effects of the elements in quakes with a magnitude of 7.5. The greatest risk of destruction is in the European part of the metropolis, off the coast of the Sea of \u200b\u200bMarmara. For example, in the Avcilar district, according to experts, the number of victims could be 465 people, injured - more than 1,500. More than 104 thousand residents of the district are at risk of losing their homes. 668 people may die in Zeytinburnu district, more than 5330 buildings are at risk of collapse.

One of the most ancient areas of the city of Fatih, which houses many attractions, including the Hagia Sophia and the Blue Mosque, may face even more massive destruction.. The aftershocks will not survive about 72% of the buildings, as a result, about 1500 people could die.

In the worst case scenario, 40% of Istanbul will be in the disaster area. The height of the tsunami that will hit the city will reach seven meters.

Another report from the Istanbul City Hall, presented in 2021, noted that as a result of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5, approximately 209,000 buildings could be completely or partially destroyed (there are 1.16 million in total in the city). This will lead to the fact that about three million local residents will be left homeless.. In the zone of particular risk, according to experts, high-rise buildings built before 2000, without taking into account the seismic threat that scientists know about today. There are tens of thousands of such buildings in Istanbul. Officials estimate potential economic damage from disaster at $17 billion.

The mayor's office of the city said that they had developed a map of the occurrence of groundwater, specialists are working to bring water to the areas of temporary accommodation of the victims. In addition, regular drills are held in Istanbul in case of an emergency.. Last year, a tsunami early warning system appeared in one of the most seismically dangerous areas of the city, Buyukcekmece, which is said to be able to notify about the appearance of a wave five to seven minutes before the impact..

But at the same time in Istanbul in recent years there has been a massive spontaneous building. As part of the reconstruction of old buildings, new floors were completed. This increased the pressure on the buildings and made them fail seismic standards..

The city's master plan for dealing with the consequences of the earthquake was developed in 2003 and was last updated in 2018. In 2020, Typhoon Kahraman, head of the city's earthquake risk management department, acknowledged that so far no building had been rebuilt in accordance with the requirements of the master plan, but promised that 790,000 buildings would undergo risk assessment in the future. The solution for some buildings may be the strengthening of load-bearing structures, for others - a complete reconstruction, the official specified..