WP: Summit in Kyiv will expose the gap between Ukraine's expectations and EU capabilities

02 February 2023, 20:09 | Ukraine 
фото с Зеркало недели

This week, Ukrainian officials will have a long list of requests for their European allies: fighter jets and other heavy weapons to fend off a new Russian offensive, EU membership in a few years, a legal mechanism to hold Russians accountable, and a plan to use Russian assets to rebuild..

But the delegation of high-ranking EU officials that arrived in Kyiv is unlikely to offer specific promises on any of these issues.. Unusual wartime summit will bring only a statement praising Ukraine's efforts and urging it to continue reforms. Although there will be progress on some issues such as access to free mobile roaming. And then there will be a photo shoot, writes the Washington Post.

EU officials present the summit itself as an act of solidarity, speaking of European commitments and sending a signal to Moscow. Adviser to the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak said that by coming to Kyiv at the height of the war, the EU shows understanding of the “price Ukraine pays”.

“But the gap between Ukrainian hopes and EU capabilities will be exposed,” the article says..

“From a political point of view, this summit is needed so that the EU demonstrates its certain relevance and that it will be a key arbiter in the future of Ukraine.. He cannot do it by military means, he does not have such capabilities, but he can do it by political and economic means,” said Eoin Drea, a researcher at the Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies..

Some political and economic promises, in particular EU membership, seem very far away while the war is going on..

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" But you also need to manage expectations to avoid conflict in the future,” he added..

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When Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, the EU responded in a surprisingly unified manner by imposing sanctions on Moscow, giving Kyiv money to keep the state functioning.. And then in June Ukraine received the status of a candidate country for EU accession.. And all these are good changes for Kyiv. But the war is nearing its first anniversary. Ukrainian troops are trying to push back the Russian army in the south and east. And Moscow continues to shell civilians. Ukraine is mainly focused on persuading the US and other NATO countries to hand over the advanced weapons it needs to change the balance of power on the battlefield..

Meanwhile, the EU is pushing Kyiv into the big bureaucratic steps it takes to join the union.. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled ahead of Friday's summit that reforms are on the way..

“We are preparing new reforms in Ukraine, reforms that will change the social, legal and political reality, making it more human, transparent and efficient,” he said..

Despite the fact that 27 participating countries support Ukraine, they remain divided in their views on the accelerated procedure for joining the EU. A small group of Ukraine's most ardent supporters support a fast track process, many others do not. Kyiv has long sought EU membership. But the Russian invasion created a sense of urgency. Months after the start of the Russian invasion, the idea of \u200b\u200bgranting Ukraine EU candidate status still seems premature.. But a combination of Zelenskiy's emotional appeals, stubborn Ukrainian diplomacy, and widespread outrage over Russian atrocities have taken their toll..

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However, EU leaders, officials and diplomats say that Ukraine's European dream will come true only after many years, if not decades.. Turkey applied in 1987 and became a candidate country in 1999. Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and other countries have been negotiating with the EU for many years. Private conversations show that the cost of recovery haunts countries. If Ukraine joins the union, it will become the fifth most populous EU country and at the same time the poorest. In 2021, Ukraine's GDP per capita was $4,827, according to the IMF. For comparison, Bulgaria is now the poorest country in the EU.. And its GDP per capita is $11,683. But the war appears to have further reduced the Ukrainian figure. According to Kyiv's calculations, the year of the war reduced the country's GDP by about 30%.

Some officials and EU countries hope Russia's frozen assets can be used to rebuild Ukraine. But there is still no agreement on how exactly to do this.. So far, the governments agree on only one thing: the EU does not have to pay the entire amount. In private conversations, EU diplomats inevitably point to the problem of corruption.

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They praise Kyiv's reform efforts despite the war, but emphasize that the country still has a lot to do..

News of the dismissal of several senior Ukrainian officials, including a Zelenskiy adviser, will not ease these worries, despite the country's latest efforts..

“Brussels is very fond of powerful rhetoric about supporting Ukraine and democracy, and this is good. But, unfortunately, the political reality may be different,” Drea said..

Источник: Зеркало недели