A new offensive of Russian troops on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is now unlikely. However, everything indicates that the Russians are preparing to implement this plan, and the Russian authorities are actively persuading the Belarusian. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe it is more likely in September 2023. They indicated this in their report for January 19..

“There is no indication that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary to attack Ukraine in the winter or spring of 2023, which the Ukrainians warned about at the end of 2022. It seems more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA (Most Dangerous Plan of Action). ) regarding an attack on Ukraine by Belarus at the end of 2023, given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus are planning to conduct large-scale exercises. and Allied Shield 2023, likely in September 2023,” the ISW report says..

The ISW adds that by the fall of 2023, it is quite possible for Russia to complete one or more additional calls to the reserve.. Also, by that time, Russia has more time to have time to produce more military equipment..

Kremlin officials continue to negotiate with the Belarusian national leadership. In particular, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a telephone conversation with Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and discussed the vague Russian-Belarusian " ISW analysts suggest that this may be a sign of joint military plans..

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Recall, according to the State Border Service, today there are about 11,000 Russian servicemen on the territory of Belarus.. It's not enough for a new coming.