The failure of the Russian military-industrial base to address the shortage of ammunition is likely to hinder the ability of Russian troops to support offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

U.S. and Ukrainian officials reported Jan. 10 that Russian daily artillery fire had dropped by 75% in some areas, a historic low since the Russian full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022..

These officials also noted that Russian troops may be cutting back on artillery fire due to reduced supply of shells or overestimating their tactics..

Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Ukrainian Defense Forces for the East, said Russian forces had depleted their stockpiles of 122mm and 152mm caliber artillery shells and other reserves in the summer of 2022, suggesting that excessive artillery fire would lead to faster results..

Cherevaty noted that now Russian troops must move additional shells from the rear areas of the Russian Federation and purchase additional ammunition from other countries to counteract such a shortage, which leads to a decrease in the rate of fire.. Cherevaty also added that Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition depots and logistics are also preventing Russian forces from unloading ammunition near the front lines, reducing the intensity of Russian artillery fire..

Russian sources are increasingly acknowledging that the lack of ammunition and supplies significantly limits the ability of Russian troops to move forward.. A well-known Russian military blogger said that Russia's mobilization efforts are not enough, noting that Russia's success at the front depends on its economy and military-industrial complex..

The ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin's mobilization campaigns are unlikely to have a decisive impact on the course of the war unless Russia resolves its fundamental problems securing the military effort in Ukraine.. Russian forces have gained some advantage in the early stages of the invasion through rapid use of manpower and relying on artillery superiority, but the Kremlin's inability to replace lost personnel and replenish ammunition could further undermine the ability to wage protracted hostilities, ISW analysts say..

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Previously, British intelligence called the key limiting factor of the offensive operations of the Russian Federation. The British Ministry of Defense believes that Russia is unlikely to have increased its stockpiles of ammunition enough to carry out large-scale offensive operations.