A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 will result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese forces and is unlikely to lead to a victory for Beijing, according to a well-known independent Washington think tank that has run a war game to simulate a possible conflict that the military and political are concerned about.. The results of the simulation of the situation are reported by CNN.

A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US army as crippled as a losing Chinese force..

At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers will lie at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and China's largest modern navy in the world will be completely destroyed..

These are just some of the findings from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) after running one of the largest war game simulations ever played regarding a possible conflict over Taiwan, a democratic island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party considers part of its sovereign territory..

Chinese leader Xi Jinping refused to rule out the use of military force to return the island to Beijing's control.

CNN revised a copy of a report titled "

“There is no unclassified war game looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Kanchian, one of the three project leaders and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies..

Such games are usually played only once or twice.. CSIS launched it 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: will the invasion succeed and at what cost?

Likely answers to these two questions are negative and very significant, says CSIS report.

“The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops.. Such losses will cripple the US global position for years to come,” the report said..

In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants.. Approximately 3,200 US troops were killed in three weeks of fighting, nearly half of what the US has lost in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan..

“China will also suffer greatly. His navy will be destroyed, the core of the amphibious forces will be broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers will be held captive,” the message says.. The report estimates that China will lose about 10,000 troops, 155 combat aircraft and 138 capital ships..

Taiwan will be devastated.

Scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan too, even if Chinese invasion fails.

“Although the Taiwanese army is resilient, it has seriously degraded and is left to defend the devastated economy on the island without electricity and basic services,” the report says.. The island's army will suffer losses of about 3,500 people, and all 26 destroyers and frigates of its fleet will be sunk, the report says..

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 warplanes and 26 warships while US military bases on its home soil are attacked by China, report says.

At the same time, CSIS said it did not want its report to mean that a war over Taiwan "

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Dan Grazier, Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project for Government Oversight (POGO), says an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan is highly unlikely.. Grazier told CNN that such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports that the Chinese economy relies on for its survival, and interrupting that trade risks collapsing the Chinese economy in a short time.. Grazier argues that China relies on food and fuel imports to propel its fuel-efficient engine, and there is little wiggle room.

“The Chinese are going to do everything possible, in my opinion, to avoid a military conflict with anyone,” Grazier said.. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they will use industrial and economic power instead of military force..

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But Pentagon leaders called China a " Taiwan and conducting exercises aimed at the potential capture of one of the outlying islands of Taiwan "

In August, a visit to the island by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi prompted a large-scale display of military might by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan's exclusive economic zone..

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China steps up military pressure.

Speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping received thunderous applause when he said that China was "

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The Biden administration has been unwavering in its support for the island, as mandated by the Taiwan Relations Act, under which Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without the need for U.S. troops..

The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the U.S. to continue Taiwan's military modernization program and provides $10 billion in aid over five years, indicating long-term bipartisan support for the island..

Biden, however, has repeatedly said that the US military will defend Taiwan if the Chinese army launches an invasion, although the Pentagon insists that Washington's "

Under the One China policy, the US recognizes China's position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never formally recognized Beijing's claim to a self-governing island..

The CSIS report states that in order to prevent US troops from allowing China to finally take control of Taiwan, four constants emerged among the 24 iterations of the war game it launched:.

Taiwan's ground forces should be able to contain Chinese footholds;

The US should be able to use its bases in Japan to fight;

The US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and \;

and the U.S. must fully arm Taiwan before firing starts and immediately come into conflict with its own forces.

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“Once the war starts, it will not be possible to bring troops or supplies to Taiwan, so the situation is very different from the situation in Ukraine, where the United States and its allies can constantly send aid to the country.. Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they should have it before it even starts,” Kangchian said..

Washington must act soon if it wants to implement some of CSIS recommendations to succeed in Taiwan conflict, think tank says.

Among them is the strengthening of US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks.; transferring their navies to smaller and more protected ships; submarine prioritization; giving priority to sustainable bombers over fighter forces; but also the production of cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan towards a similar strategy: arming itself with simpler weapon platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive the first Chinese strike.

This policy will make victory less expensive for the US military, but casualties will still be high, CSIS report says..

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'Winning isn't everything,' says report.