As long as US leadership remains strong, Vladimir Putin will lose the war with Ukraine. But a Russian victory may still take place if the US forgets its critical interest in the outcome of the conflict..

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said this while assessing risks and opportunities in 2023 for the Atlantic Council.. Analytical center experts consider the likelihood that the United States and the West will turn their backs on Ukraine is very low. However, this scenario cannot be dismissed..

Herbst notes that there are several ways to implement such a scenario.. Although its probability is not more than 10%. For example, Putin may continue his irresponsible threats to use nuclear weapons.. And the fear of the outbreak of a nuclear war (albeit unjustified) will become so great that the United States will greatly reduce its assistance to Ukraine.

“If right-wing populist politicians, despite their weak performance in the US mid-term elections, can somehow gain more influence in Washington, this may also lead to a decrease in such assistance.. Higher energy prices in the US, and especially in Europe, could put pressure on governments too,” Herbst explained..

Director of the European Center of the Atlantic Council Jorn Flack notes that Putin is playing the long game with Europe and can still win. Prior to this, the continent showed underestimated cohesion in its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.. But the expert warns that this unity cannot be taken for granted.. And already now cracks have begun to appear in “familiar places”: between large and small countries or between rich and poorer ones.. Flack points to four risks that, together, could create a political impasse and provoke the fragmentation of the European Union. In this scenario, Europe, Ukraine and transatlantic relations will lose. And Putin will be the winner.

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The first risk factor is energy shocks. The energy crisis in 2023 could be worse than in 2022. It will no longer be possible to fill European storage facilities with Russian gas. And there are no alternative import opportunities in Europe either.. So there could be a situation in which prices are high and countries are desperately looking for gas..

The second factor is the contraction of the economy. A gas shortage could result in a recession, increased inflationary pressures, a drop in business activity and all the associated consequences for living costs, living standards and the labor market. This, in turn, may influence policy. In the medium term, such effects could cause lasting damage to European competitiveness.

“We are already seeing the trade surplus narrowing and key sectors of the economy shutting down production,” Flack said..

The third factor is a toxic combination of the first two. Stabilization measures by European governments, which were introduced in response to the first two challenges, could increase sovereign debt worries and create a new crisis in the eurozone.

The fourth risk is internal political dynamics. Franco-German engine of Europe stalled. Economic concerns, weak parliamentary support for French President Emmanuel Macron, and the complex nature of Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition in Germany limit both leaders' actions at home and on the continent. In addition, there is uncertainty about how the new right-wing government in Italy will cooperate with Brussels.. Parliamentary elections in Poland, Greece, Estonia, Finland, Spain and other countries can bring to power even more Eurospects and sympathizers of Russia.

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Among the main opportunities for 2023, Atlantic Council experts name Ukraine's victory in the war and our country's accession to the institutional West. The probability that this will happen, the experts of the think tank considers “average”.

Political scientist and former CIA officer Matthew Kroenig emphasizes the need to closely monitor Putin's attempts to use Russian energy supplies as a weapon to destroy Western support for Ukraine.. However, he also notes that the Nord Stream gas pipelines have not pumped Russian gas to Europe for a long time.. And the West is firmly on the side of Kyiv. This means that support will not decrease in winter, and Ukraine will continue to receive Western weapons, inflicting losses on the Russian army..

“If Ukraine wins the war in 2023 – that’s a big if, but not as unthinkable as just a year ago – and then joins the EU and NATO, the potential will be extraordinary.. And not only for Ukraine. Such events will be a great success for American leadership in Europe and for the future of the international rules-based system,” said Kroenig..

It is also possible that Putin will be defeated both abroad and at home.. Atlantic Council experts believe that the likelihood of such a scenario is somewhere between " However, Russian military defeats in the war against Ukraine created serious problems for the Russian president..

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“But if the transatlantic community maintains its policy of support for Ukraine and opposition to the Kremlin, and especially if such support increases, allowing Kyiv to regain control over the Ukrainian mainland, then the possibility that Putin will lose power in 2023 cannot be ruled out.. The chances that this will happen, in fact, may even be at the level of 25%,” says Herbst..

He explains that this course of events is possible due to the increase in economic pain and the number of military casualties.. This, according to the American diplomat, could provoke civil unrest in Russia, which will force insiders to unite to remove Putin from office.. Herbst points to fears potential Kremlin replacement could be worse.

“But if the past is a prologue, the chances that the removal of Putin will lead to some political and diplomatic opening are much higher than the chances of an even more brutal and aggressive policy of the Kremlin,” said the former US ambassador..