Experts fear gas crisis could repeat in winter 2023 - Bloomberg

02 January 2023, 16:19 | Economy 
фото с Зеркало недели

Grids continue to struggle to supply enough gas and electricity to households, and will continue to do so for at least the coming months, and experts are already worried that the same problems could repeat next winter, and possibly even get worse..

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Moreover, the effects of the current gas crisis could last even longer.. In December, one of Britain's most respected energy advisory companies warned that gas prices could remain high for the rest of the decade..

The situation on the continent next winter will depend in no small part on how cold January, February and March turn out to be, experts say.

If the weather is unseasonably warm, it will be easier for the continent to replenish its reserves in the summer, even without Russian gas.

Martin Young, senior analyst at Investec, believes there will be a few more wind farms on line before next winter to help with power supplies.. However, there is still uncertainty about some coal and nuclear power plants..

The British government has made an agreement with the old coal-fired power plants that are being decommissioned that they will be ready for operation this winter if necessary.. So far, this has not been necessary, but ministers may wish to extend this agreement for next winter..

Although supplies from Russia dried up last summer, some gas still came in, allowing the Europeans to put it off for a rainy day.. Pipelines connecting Russia to Europe are likely to be completely shut down next summer. As a result, most of the gas imported to the continent will have to be delivered by ships from the United States, Qatar and other countries..

However, there are a limited number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers in the world and a limited number of places where they can dock in Europe..

In an effort to bring more of this gas, which is cooled to around -160 degrees Celsius to liquefy it and facilitate storage and transport, to European shores, projects to build new terminals have emerged or been accelerated in recent months..

In December, Germany opened its first-ever LNG terminal, signaling a massive change in the country's energy policy, which was heavily reliant on Russian gas imports in the past.. Two more LNG terminals to open in Germany next year.

The UK, Spain and Portugal have the largest LNG import capacities in Europe, allowing them to enter global markets. But there aren't many gas pipelines in the Iberian Peninsula connecting it to the rest of Europe, so Spanish terminals are less useful to neighbors..

Although Centrica recently reopened a disused old gas storage facility, there are very few places in the UK to store the LNG it will import over the summer..

As a result, most of the gas entering the UK terminals will be directly re-exported to Europe, in particular to the Netherlands, where it will be pumped into underground storage facilities for winterization..

Gas from Norway and UK gas fields will also serve to replenish supplies in Europe during the warmer months when households and businesses need less gas..

But while LNG may offer a partial solution to the problem of gas supplies to Europe, it will not be able to reduce gas prices to the previous level.. LNG is already an expensive way to transport gas – it takes a lot of energy and expensive equipment to get and keep the gas cold enough for tankers.

And since LNG tankers can go anywhere to provide themselves with vital gas, Europe will have to outbid the price buyers around the world are willing to pay..

Thus, by switching to an increasing use of LNG tankers to meet its gas needs, Europe will ensure a multi-year price increase..

Cornwall Insight, a reputable British energy consultancy, said it believes prices will remain high for the rest of the decade..

Recall, on November 24, EU energy ministers agreed on five proposals from the European Commission to overcome the energy crisis.. However, they failed to agree on the introduction of a gas price threshold..

Источник: Зеркало недели