Military exercises almost never stop in Belarus. The country is flooded with Russian weapons, and this worries Belarusians, writes “Voice of America”.

However, there is no consensus among experts on whether there will be a new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus..

Recall that the next military maneuvers in Belarus were suddenly announced on Tuesday. They coincided with the appointment of the new commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of the country, Andrei Lukyanovich.

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And the day before, three Russian MiG-31Ks arrived in Belarus, which are capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles..

Minsk officially declares that it will not enter the war against Ukraine. However, February 24, 2022. Russia attacked Ukraine, including from the territory of Belarus, and in October Alexander Lukashenko ordered the deployment of Belarusian troops, together with Russian ones, near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

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The current situation in Belarus threatens to escalate tensions in the region on the eve of the New Year, believes Belarusian political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets.

According to him, if we assume that a large-scale attack will be launched from the territory of the republic, then most likely it will happen in the midst of the New Year holidays, when Europe will be on vacation..

“This requires a large grouping of Russian troops,” the expert explains.. – Intelligence agencies of the United States and other countries claim that Belarus does not yet have a sufficient fist for a full-fledged offensive operation. In Ukraine, they also believe that the exercises are more like a psychological attack. At the same time, I would still consider these exercises as another step so that the forces (from the Russian side) that take part in the exercises could sooner or later be actively involved in the war..

However, Dmitry Bolkunets has no doubt that whatever fist is assembled on the territory of Belarus, he will be “quickly and badly battered when he enters Ukraine if an invasion occurs”.

In his opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are well prepared for a meeting with any enemy.. They defend their land, they know and skillfully use the terrain, they have carried out the necessary mine work. And the invasion will certainly “have tragic consequences for the attackers”.

According to the expert, in favor of the fact that the Russian army may still try to attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, it says that Putin is inexorably running out of time.

“The anniversary of the start of the war is approaching.. The question naturally arises: where is the result? So far, Putin has nothing to show, except for a destroyed economy, sanctions and a mountain of corpses... The results are deplorable. Therefore, he has little choice, and he will forcefully try to achieve at least some success.. In the current situation, for Putin and Lukashenko, it does not matter at all how many more dead there will be in the war. They clearly care about their own fate.. In addition, Lukashenka has no alternative, so he will do everything as Putin says,” sums up Dmitry Bolkunets.

Political scientist Artem Shraibman states that today there are not enough troops in Belarus for large-scale actions against Ukraine.

“The exercises themselves are nothing new,” recalled the Voice of America interlocutor.. – Since the beginning of the year, they have been held monthly in different formats. Until we see intelligence reports about the transfer of really large volumes of Russian military equipment and manpower to Belarus, I would not exaggerate the significance of these exercises.”.

According to Shraibman, Russia will continue to transfer weapons to Belarus, allowing it to shell Ukraine. However, according to the expert, this is not directly related to the ground invasion..

“I would not consider... the transfer of MiGs capable of launching Kinzhals in connection with Russian-Belarusian maneuvers,” says the political scientist.

According to Shraibman, the evidence of earlier polls indicates a clearly negative attitude of the Belarusian society towards the idea of \u200b\u200bparticipating in the war.. “It’s hard to imagine that the Belarusian military is made of a different dough,” says the expert.

“In addition, after a series of defeats by the Russian army, it became clear what was happening on the battlefields in Ukraine... In my understanding, no one in Belarus wants to fight, including Lukashenka,” explains Artem Shraibman.

Against the background of information that Belarus may soon begin an invasion of Ukraine, which, by the way, has already been refuted by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that in fact, dissatisfaction with the regime of dictator Alexander Lukashenko is growing in the local army, who.

However, the General Staff notes that there are still no signs of the formation of offensive groups on the northern border..