Ukrainian winter will be cruel, but it will not freeze the war. Ukraine and Russia face key decisions that could change the nature of the conflict from a diplomatic and military point of view. Perhaps the most worrisome possibility for Ukraine and the United States is that Vladimir Putin is finally beginning to display the strategic cunning he has in the past..

Hal Brands, professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, writes about this in an article for Bloomberg.. Late, U.S. officials say, Putin is beginning to realize what was obvious outside of the sycophantic cocoon in the Kremlin: Russia lacks the military capability to achieve its political goals in Ukraine..

Russia is running out of missiles and munitions faster than the sanctioned defense industry can replenish them. It is difficult for Russian troops to hold onto their gains, let alone take over all the regions that Putin has illegally declared part of Russia.. Nuclear threats have not prevented Ukraine from crossing Russian " She recently did this by attacking air bases in Russia.. Moreover, despite Russia's supposedly endless human resources, Putin cannot mobilize more than he has already committed to the military, lest he turn against an already apathetic population..

“The problems are not new, but Putin’s readiness, although not directly, to acknowledge them is the opposite. He publicly acknowledged last week that victory is still a long way off,” Brands writes..

So Putin's best strategy right now is very brutal in nature.. It is to turn winter into a weapon. Russia uses missiles, drones and artillery to destroy power grids and other critical infrastructure to make the population suffer.

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After the retreat from Kherson, Russian troops took up defensive positions to reinforce the front, integrate the newly mobilized and buy time until spring.. The only exception is the expensive offensive near Bakhmut, which should give Putin a symbolic victory..

If Russia can hold out all winter while causing as much trouble as possible for Ukraine, Europe, and the US, then perhaps Kyiv and the West will succumb.. But, according to Brandas, it will be difficult for Moscow to implement this strategy.. After all, a country famous for its winter successes lacks the warm clothes and food needed by its army in order to survive the cold months.. It's not all that crazy, though, given that Putin doesn't have better options and the West is showing signs of fatigue.. One of the reasons why President Joe Biden is trying to approve an aid package for Ukraine now is the uncertainty that the Republican majority in the lower house of Congress will support such a decision in 2023..

“Winter also puts Ukraine in front of a difficult choice. Her army is tired of hard fighting. From a purely military point of view, an operational pause makes sense. But from a political and diplomatic standpoint, waiting can be risky,” the author writes..

President Volodymyr Zelensky certainly fears an increase in ambiguity in the West if even the impression that the situation has reached a dead end appears in the winter. Signals from Washington do not give confidence. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken signaled last week that the US priority is to help Ukraine retake territories occupied since February 24.. And decisions on Crimea and other territories that Russia seized in 2014 will be considered separately later.. The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, called on Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia before the war turns into a World War I-style quagmire..

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Brands admits Zelenskiy has reason to fear domestic policy problems if Ukrainian troops rest while population suffers more strikes. Winter is really a good time to strike. You just need to wait until the ground freezes so that tanks and other heavy equipment can move around.. So Zelensky may try to launch a new offensive. One option is to try to liberate the Zaporozhye region by pushing Russian troops into Crimea. This would demonstrate that the increase in Western aid allows the Ukrainian side to win more victories..

“But this is not an easy decision, because Kyiv needs to balance between the danger of inaction and the threat of a failed offensive.. And the Ukrainian dilemma will be exacerbated if Putin takes the diplomatic initiative into his own hands by offering a truce before spring..

He admits that Putin cannot be called sincere. The truce will simply ease the pressure on the Russian army, which will allow the Russian defense industry to catch up with military needs.. Then Moscow will be able to restore the bloodshed when it suits her.. Ukraine would do the right thing if it rejected an offer that would consolidate Russian gains.

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But U.S. officials fear that such a gambit could change the diplomatic game by shifting responsibility from one side to the other for prolonging the bloodshed.. Also advocates for a diplomatic settlement, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, may get what they have been missing all along, namely a hint that the Kremlin is willing to cooperate..

“It sounds strange, but Ukraine and the United States were lucky with the enemy. Putin deceived himself, was divorced from reality and did not understand that there was an abyss between his goals and available resources. If this changes, a completely different war will begin,” Brands warns..