The pessimistic forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine suggests that the mark of 51 hryvnia/dollar. can be achieved as early as next year 2023. This is stated in the consensus forecast formed by the Spanish consulting company Focus Economics SL U, Forbes reports..

Forecasts for Ukraine regarding economic growth rates, inflation, the dollar exchange rate and other key macro indicators were made, in particular, by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Moodys Analytics, Fitch Ratings and Ukrainian analysts.

Inflation and exchange rate: there will be no significant devaluation.

As noted in the forecast, due to the war, inflation in Ukraine rose to a maximum over the past six years - 26.6% in October.. Price pressure will peak in the fourth quarter.

In general, inflation will remain above the NBU target of 5% until at least 2027, economists say. The reasons are damage to infrastructure, a drop in supply and demand, and pressure on the national currency.

Consensus inflation forecast from Focus Economics - 29.2% by the end of 2022, 21% - 2023 and 10% - 2024.

“Continuation of the war and additional damage to infrastructure and productive capacity may delay the decline in inflation,” the report notes..

Experts draw attention to the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate in recent months.

“Confidence in the currency is maintained thanks to large international reserves and an increase in foreign aid,” economists say.

As of early December, the NBU reserves even exceeded the pre-war level (about $28 billion).

Analysts expect the NBU to keep the hryvnia exchange rate fixed for some time to ensure financial stability.

“Float is likely to be reintroduced as soon as economic conditions permit,” the report says..

Participants of the consensus group predict the hryvnia exchange rate by the end of 2023 at the level of 41.2 UAH/$, and in 2024 - 40.4 UAH/$.

According to the forecast, the optimal dollar exchange rate in 2023-2024 will be at the level of UAH 40.20-40.40.

At the same time, the negative forecast provides that the mark of UAH 51/USD. can be achieved as early as next year, 2023, and 54 UAH/USD. – in 2024.

GDP will grow, but there are risks.

Forecasts assume 5.1% GDP growth in 2023 and 7.8% in 2024. Ukraine's GDP should return to growth in 2023. Largely driven by international funding and low base effects.

Downside risk high due to massive damage to infrastructure, emigration and substantial debt.

“Key factors to look out for are the course of the war and the receipt of foreign aid,” the report says..

Of the supporting factors, economists highlight the resumption of grain exports. This year it actually saved the economy of Ukraine. Extension of the “grain agreement” until March 2023. will generate much-needed export revenue, document says.

Among forecasts of economic growth, only one suggests another year of decline: Dragon Capital investment company predicts minus 5% next year. The CEO of the company, Tomas Fiala, explained this with power outages..

“We are preparing for the fact that in such conditions we will have to work throughout the winter,” he said..

Dragon also assumes that the hot phase of the war will last until the third quarter..

Recall, the NBU predicts that inflation will reach 30% by the end of 2022, and then slow down: to 21% next year and 10% in 2024. The forecast of the Ministry of Economy for 2022 coincides with the National Bank, but in 2023 the ministry expects growth at the same level - 30%.