Russian and Ukrainian forces recently exchanged shelling near the towns of Huliaipole and Pologa in the Zaporozhye region, 100 kilometers from occupied Melitopol.

Artillery " But the exchange of shelling on December 9 is interesting for its own reasons, writes Forbes, adding that Russian sources speak of the accumulation of Ukrainian mechanized units near Gulyai-Polye..

“If this is true, it could be a sign that a fourth Ukrainian counter-offensive is imminent despite the onset of winter.. This long-awaited attack from the left flank in the Zaporizhia region would liberate much of southern Ukraine and allow Ukrainian forces to approach the narrow isthmus connecting the country's mainland to Crimea, occupied by Russian forces in 2014..

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Now there are not too many Russian troops in the Zaporozhye region. But the same can be said about the Ukrainian side.. Since the spring, only a few Russian and Ukrainian brigades have been deployed on the part of the front between Gulyaipole and Pology. On the Russian side, this is the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, which on paper has several thousand soldiers and a large number of armored vehicles.. On the Ukrainian side - 106 Territorial Defense Brigade, which consists of volunteers and is lightly armed. It is reinforced by the 19th separate rifle battalion. Both sides are supported by artillery and try to put pressure on each other. On December 7, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed to " It was these big guns and MLRS that exchanged fire on December 9.

It all started after the Russian side reported " Allegedly, because of this, the Russian forces carried out a “massive artillery shelling of enemy positions near Gulyaipole”. In response, Ukrainian troops attacked the occupied Pologi.

Forbes notes that it is not clear which Ukrainian mechanized forces could approach Pologi in order to launch an offensive in the direction of Melitopol.. The 65th Mechanized Brigade and the First Tank Brigade are deployed nearby.

“But for the attack on Melitopol, much larger forces are needed.. Previous Ukrainian counter-offensives - around Kyiv in March, and then in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions six months later - involved at least half a dozen brigades armed with heavy equipment. To liberate Melitopol and then enter the Kherson region on the left bank of the Dnieper, Ukrainian troops will have to travel 300 kilometers, defeating a dozen or more Russian brigades and regiments..

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Forbes notes that the Ukrainian military has already tried to tie up some of these Russian units by striking. But even if these Russian forces, due to Ukrainian attacks in other directions, cannot respond to a possible offensive by the Ukrainian army from the northeast in the direction of Melitopol, they will still hinder progress.

“The only thing that can be said is that the Ukrainian army will have to concentrate a lot of forces with heavy equipment in order for the offensive from the left flank in the Zaporozhye region to be successful.. There are good reasons to suspect that the Russian military will notice their movements and try to disrupt the accumulations with artillery. Obviously, such shelling has already begun, ”the newspaper writes..