It seems that in the end, it is the microchips that will defeat Vladimir Putin. Six months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is suffocating under the pressure of a severe technology shortage created by sanctions..

Having fired (or lost in combat) more missiles than expected, Russian soldiers are increasingly relying on ancient stockpiles of obsolete and primitive Soviet munitions.. Meanwhile, Western-armed Ukrainian forces are trying to turn the tide of the war by actively destroying Russian warehouses and key infrastructure in the south, where they are conducting offensive operations..

Kyiv is well aware that the outcome of the war will most likely depend on whether Russia can find a way to restore access to high-tech chips.. Therefore, the Ukrainian side is trying to make sure that Moscow does not succeed.. To indicate the threat, Ukraine is sending out international warnings that the Kremlin has compiled a list of semiconductors, transformers, connectors, cases, transistors, electrical insulators and other components it needs to continue the war.. Most of them are made in the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Taiwan and Japan.. The Ukrainian message is clear: all these technologies must not fall into Russian hands..

Politico journalists got access to one of the lists of Russia, which is divided into three categories by priority. The document indicated the prices that Moscow is willing to pay for the parts.. The publication admits that it is impossible to confirm the authenticity of the list.. However, two experts in the field of military supply chains confirmed that the document in the hands of journalists is consistent with the findings of other studies on Russian equipment and needs.

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At first glance, Russia should not be able to buy the most important elements of the list. Domestic production can only do very basic technologies. Therefore, the Kremlin has been heavily dependent on semiconductor manufacturers in the US, EU and Japan in recent years.. And thanks to the sanctions, he should no longer have access to their goods.. The only problem is whether there will be intermediary countries that would buy technology from the West and then resell it to Moscow.. This could be done, for example, by China. In extreme cases, Russians seem to be taking chips out of household appliances like refrigerators..

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal stressed that the war has reached a point where technological advantage will play a decisive role.

“According to our information, the Russians have already spent almost half of their arsenal,” he told Politico.

He also added that Russia was able to produce only four dozen hypersonic missiles..

“They are the most accurate thanks to the microchips installed in them.. But due to the sanctions imposed against Russia, the supply of this high-tech equipment... stopped. And the Russians do not have the opportunity to replenish supplies,"

Chips in the list.

Russia is most desperately looking for 25 components. And almost all of them are microchips made in the USA by companies such as Marvell, Intel, Holt, ISSI, Microchip, Micron, Broadcom and Texas Instruments.. The list is closed by the chips of the Japanese company Renesas, the German Infineon, each of which was bought by firms from the USA, as well as chips from the American manufacturer Vicor and connectors from AirBorn, also manufactured in the US.. Some of these products can simply be purchased from electronics retailers.. Others have been out of the market for several months due to a global shortage of microchips..

The cheapest item on the Russian highest priority list is Marvell's 88E1322-AO-BAM2I000 Gigabit Ethernet Transceiver. Moscow, apparently, expects to buy it at a price of 7 euros apiece.. The most expensive component is the 10M04DCF256I7G field-programmable gate array from Intel. Its cost is 1107 euros per piece.. Although before the shortage of chips, it cost only 20 euros. There are many components on the medium priority list that are made by the German company Harting and the Dutch Nexperia (bought by the Chinese company Wingtech in 2019). The Russians are looking for a range of housings and connectors from Harting, including 09 03 000 6201 and 09 03 000 6104, as well as 74LVC1G14GV,125 inverters and 74LVC224W digital octal buffer/line drivers..

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Open Data Intelligence Director and Analyst at RUSI think tank James Byrne said Russia has likely stockpiled Western microchips and other components for years.. But now, it is quite possible that these reserves are running low.. He noted that the Russian military procurement program is " In addition, Russia has a "

But now they have spent so much in Ukraine that they need large volumes of new supplies.. And sanctions make it harder to buy… So the Russians will prioritize critical things, as the documents indicate. We obviously believe they are struggling to find supplies,” the expert said..

Holes in the blockade.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, Western countries have tightened sanctions against the Russian Federation, increasingly striking microchip supply chains to reduce the country's military capabilities.. The new restrictions have tightened the tight controls on chip sales that have been in place for years.. Because such parts often fall under the category of " They can be used both in household appliances and in the military. Experts point out that export control regimes often fail to stop the flow of technology to unwanted parties.

“Once the chips leave the factories, it becomes very difficult to track exactly where they will be used,” said Diederik Kops, senior arms export researcher at the Flanders Peace Institute, affiliated with the Flanders Parliament..

He explained that Russian entities providing the army have many ways to buy critical goods.. For example, you can buy something from suppliers online using fake " And then you can smuggle through postal companies.

“Countries like the DPRK and Iran have been evading sanctions for a long time and have many years of experience. Russia has definitely been preparing for the same problems in recent months… Russians can use historical experience to create their own channels. After all, during the Cold War it was a common thing. Also, Russia has a long border with many neighbors and a large network of loyal countries to work with,” Kops said..

The US, Europe, and other Western allies have created licensing regimes to prevent companies from exporting military-grade technology to customers that could pose security risks..

“But tracking illegal or even legitimate procurement channels to see who the end user is is a big challenge,” the expert explained..

Sanctions imposed on Russia after the February invasion should have closed loopholes and tightened the screws on the Russian army even more.. But according to Damien Spleeters, deputy director of Conflict Armament Research, it is too early to say how the sanctions have worked..

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“Everything we have seen so far was done before the invasion. These are the stockpiles that were built up before the sanctions,” explained Spleeters, whose center is trying to trace weapons used in Russia’s war against Ukraine..

However, according to Shmyhal, Russia is clearly " Because they " In May, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that Russia was so desperate to find semiconductors for its weapons that it had begun to take microchips out of dishwashers and refrigerators to put in military equipment.. At the same time, she referred to Ukrainian intelligence data.. However, some US national security veterans disagree with the optimism of members of President Joe Biden's team.. According to them, the West cannot prevent other regimes, including China, from transferring microchips to Russia..

" China and Russia have 4,300 km of common border. It is simply impossible to trace whether these parts are being sent from China to Russian territory,” said former US National Security Council China Director Matthew Tarpin..

The US Department of Commerce has repeatedly said that they did not notice any evidence pointing to Chinese technology supplies to Russia.. And if Beijing decided to take such a step, it would put it at risk of imposing sanctions.. But the Chinese government also said it would not restrict trade relations with Moscow.. Therefore, Tarpin believes that Western governments cannot be absolutely sure of Chinese behavior..

He notes that the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security has " And it is these people who should determine whether China is supplying anyone with chips for military use.. Tarpin added that inspections in China are not very effective.. Because Beijing demands to be warned about inspections.