The Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz took it for granted that defense was the strongest form of warfare.. If only because a successful attack requires a numerical advantage. That is why the weaker side was obliged to defend.
The state, having taken up defensive positions, will not allow the enemy to achieve its goals, however, it will not achieve its own goals either.. Therefore, we have to use the time won on the defensive to create a more favorable balance of power.. And only after that you can go on the offensive yourself, - writes in an article for the Financial Times, Professor Emeritus of Military Studies at King's College London Lawrence Friedman.
“A sudden powerful transition to the offensive - a brilliant sword of revenge - is the best moment for defense,"
On August 29, the Ukrainian government announced that the offensive in southern Ukraine had begun. And since that time, Kyiv has reported almost nothing about the progress of this process.. Inevitably this led to speculation. Reports began to emerge of significant breakthroughs, but also of fierce Russian resistance and counterattacks.. Russian propaganda almost immediately began talking about the catastrophic failure of the Ukrainian offensive. She claimed that the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses. More reliable Russian sources were moderate. They acknowledged that Ukraine was attacking with fresher troops and better equipment than before, causing significant damage to Russian forces.. Such assessments were consistent with claims by Ukrainian sources of moderate but significant progress, in which some Russian forces retreated and others suffered heavy losses, although they were able to slow down the Ukrainian advance..
The Ukrainian government also warned against expecting very big results in a very short time.. The area is big enough. The front line in the south is 350 kilometers long, from Zaporozhye, where Russia is still playing a dangerous game with nuclear power plants, to occupied Kherson, which has become quite a big prize.. Ukraine also created a more favorable balance of power, reaching parity in the south. Although it is traditionally believed that an offensive requires a numerical advantage. And Kyiv needed to create an irresistible force to break through Russian positions.
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Moscow resorts to desperate measures to find more soldiers for the front. And most of her equipment is old and unreliable.. However, Russia has enough firepower, including aircraft and artillery. The advantage of Ukraine is that it has more and more modern and powerful equipment. Although in many areas the amount of funds is still on the verge of. Russian forces have proven that it is difficult to carry out offensive operations in such conditions.. They were most effective in the early days of the war, when Russia had the advantage of surprise.. But then they either retreated, in particular from the north of Ukraine, because they were overwhelmed, or made gradual, creeping progress in certain areas in the Donbass, where Moscow's army had to pay dearly for several successes.. Two key targets - the cities of Mariupol and Severodonetsk - were captured after weeks of heavy fighting with the stubborn defenders of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army will in no way repeat the Russian tactics based on constant, intense artillery shelling in order to deplete the defense forces, and at the same time destroy the cities they defend.. From the point of view of a traditional offensive based on a concentrated mass of troops to break through the more vulnerable parts of the enemy defenses, the prospect of a Ukrainian operation is slow but steady progress at best, even as the winter months approach.. But this is not a very traditional offensive..
What is happening can be better explained as part of a long campaign consisting of a number of elements.. Talk about the liberation of Kherson, as the next stage of the war, began at the end of May. And President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the liberation of the south in July after several limited attacks on Russian positions.. The only reason why the Ukrainian offensive took the Russians by surprise is the fact that it was waited too long.. In practice, the campaign had already begun by that time.. Since the end of June, Ukrainian troops have attacked ammunition depots, command posts and air defense systems of the enemy.. Recently, they have cut off their retreat and destroyed supply routes by attacking bridges across the Dnieper, in particular, Antonovsky in Kherson itself..
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Attacks on targets behind the front line also intensified. The partisans began to actively destroy collaborators. And some of the most spectacular attacks were on military bases in Crimea.. The purpose of this campaign is not only to regain control over the territory, but also to deprive Russia of the desire to continue its fruitless and costly war.. If everything works, Moscow will be able to convince that its position is not viable. Everything will depend on the overall impact of already undermined logistics, limited room for maneuver and demoralization due to high losses, as well as concern that individual units will be left without the ability to retreat. As attempts to pacify occupied territories continually fail.
The Kremlin will hope that by blocking a serious offensive and inflicting high losses on Ukrainian forces, it will provoke a sense of powerlessness in Kyiv and undermine the West’s willingness to support it amid the economic consequences of the war.. In this battle of wills, however, one big difference remains: while the Ukrainians are fighting for the survival of their country, the Russians are trying to hold on to enemy territory.. But the Russians have the opportunity to abandon the war and go home.