Russia's war against Ukraine enters third phase that could prove decisive. The first was a failed attempt by Russia to arrange a blitzkrieg, the result of which would be the destruction of the Ukrainian state. During the second phase, Moscow tried to capture the entire Donbass. These attempts are still going on, despite the stalemate..

And now, during the third phase, the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south will take place. If Ukraine can regain its territories without investing too much in it, this could be a turning point in the war in its favor.. If this does not happen, then Kyiv will face a cold winter..

Gal Brands, professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, writes about this in an article for Bloomberg.. The cold certainly plays a critical role in Vladimir Putin's strategy. He believes time is still on Russia's side, at least in the short term.. By the end of this year, Western democracies will run out of weapons and ammunition needed by Kyiv. They will also get tired of pouring even more money into the Ukrainian economy, which is already dying..

Meanwhile, the global disruption caused by the disruption of Ukrainian grain supplies will worsen, even if the shaky agreement to resume food exports from Odessa is implemented.. Europe will tremble as gas runs out in winter. Moreover, Putin deliberately turns off the taps so that the countries on the continent could not accumulate reserves before the start of the cold season.. He's betting that economic discomfort will force the West to make concessions before economic disaster strikes Russia..

Putin expects that in such conditions the aid Ukraine receives from the democratic world will evaporate. Pressure on Kyiv to agree to a truce will intensify. Moscow will then be able to declare victory on the grounds that it has gained control of more Ukrainian territory than it had prior to February 24.. Russia can also use these occupied territories to regroup for a new attack next year or even in a few years to kick the government out of Kyiv or completely destroy the Ukrainian economy by occupying Odessa.. This could turn out to be a pyrrhic victory for Putin, given the losses Russia has suffered.. But for a dismembered Ukraine, it will be a collapse..

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That is why the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south is so important. It is no secret that Ukraine is preparing for an attack in this direction.. Volodymyr Zelensky's government has warned citizens to leave the region and has begun work to isolate Moscow's forces with long-range artillery. Ukraine has already regained control of several small towns along the road to Kherson, the only major city that Russia has been able to occupy without extremely heavy casualties in a massive offensive..

Although the conflict in Ukraine has slowed to a war of attrition, a counter-offensive in the south is urgent. Ukraine needs to liberate these territories before Russia annexes them, violating international law. If Moscow does this, the return of the southern regions will become less likely. A successful Ukrainian offensive could eliminate the threat of a renewed Russian attack on Odessa. Russian transport links with Crimea, as well as some key military installations, will be within range of Ukrainian artillery.

However, the real imperative of a counteroffensive is psychological.. Military analysts Michael Kaufman and Lawrence Friedman stressed that both sides are trying to influence the world's opinion about where this war leads.. Ukraine needs to show Western supporters that it can win in the end so that they can continue to support Kyiv, providing it with everything it needs for future attacks, despite the fact that the economic and military costs are rising..

If Ukraine can do it, then time will be on its side.. Latest Yale School of Management Research Shows Government Sanctions and Flight of Private Companies Are Driving Putin's Economy into the Abyss. If the war continues into 2023, the Russian autocrat will have to deal with an exhausted and unmotivated army, unless he announces a large-scale mobilization of Russians, full of political risks for him.. But the window of opportunity for Ukraine will not be open forever. With the U.S. mid-term elections approaching and the outbreak of new global crises, Kyiv's struggle could become yesterday's issue..

The Zelensky government has a good chance of success. Russian forces in occupied Kherson are stuck on the right bank of the Dnieper, which cuts them off from reinforcements in the Ukrainian south. The Ukrainian army can isolate these troops by destroying all bridges across the river with long-range artillery. Deprived of supplies, Russian units will find themselves in very difficult conditions to hold onto a hostile city amid a combination of a well-planned Ukrainian offensive and increased guerrilla violence..

But for Ukraine to succeed, it needs to scale back its ambitions.. Even a limited offensive will require the Ukrainian army to master the operations of the combined forces, which means better synchronization of infantry, mechanized forces, artillery and air force. Too much pressure can also backfire..

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For example, Ukrainian troops may try to cross the Dnieper and go on the offensive in the Crimea after Kherson. And in the end, the peninsula is Ukrainian territory. But trying to cross a river during a battle against a capable enemy can result in significant losses.. The exhausted Ukrainian army may not be strong enough to resist the fortified Russian troops on the other side of the river.. Or Kyiv may decide to launch an offensive to the southeast to destroy the land corridor connecting the occupied parts of Donbass and Crimea. But in this way, Ukrainian forces risk being surrounded themselves, especially since Russia is moving troops from the Donbass to the south..

The failure of the offensive, which will end in a retreat, will be a disaster for Ukraine, because its army will be weakened, as well as the diplomatic front. Also, if Kyiv throws too much of its motivated but depleted forces into the fight in the south, it could be vulnerable to a rebuilt Russian offensive in the east.. Ukraine has so far fought boldly and intelligently, which has allowed it to hold off a much stronger enemy.. The next critical test for Kyiv is to take the lead without losing the balance.