Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp decline in economic activity and loss of economic potential. As a result, in 2022, GDP will decrease by a third.. But the economy is expected to return to growth next year.. This is stated in the NBU quarterly inflation report for July 2022..

“Since April, economic activity has revived, primarily due to the liberation of the northern regions and a decrease in the number of regions with active hostilities, but the economy is operating at a significantly lower level of capacity compared to the pre-war. As a result, in 2022, real GDP will decrease by a third,” the report says..

According to the National Bank, next year, subject to the reduction of security risks, the economy is expected to return to growth due to the revival of consumer demand, the establishment of technological and logistics processes, the resumption of investment activities, in particular due to the prospects for European integration.

“At the same time, significant losses in production and human potential will constrain economic recovery. In 2023-2024, GDP will grow at a rate of about 5-6% per year,” the central bank’s report says..

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Recall, according to the forecasts of the NBU, by the end of 2022, inflation in Ukraine will exceed 30%.