The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers it unlikely that Belarus will join the war against Ukraine. But if dictator Alexander Lukashenko decides to join his Russian counterpart, he can send 12 battalion tactical groups to war.

“There are six shunting brigades in Belarus. Any of them can make two battalion tactical groups. This means that in theory Belarus can form only 12 battalion tactical groups.. This is a very small number, and it would not be decisive for an attack that would really threaten Ukraine,"

In addition, Lukashenka needs the army at home to support his regime, which active Belarusians are dissatisfied with.

Varos suggests that the Russians may try to use some combination of Belarusian and Russian forces to sabotage western Ukraine and divert defense forces in other directions.. However, there are no signs of the formation of such groups now..

“In addition, it is important that the Russian deployment of all these battalion tactical groups in Belarus back in February was not particularly effective.. All these different units were very uncoordinated, there was no cohesive command structure. I think that an attempt to connect the Belarusian units with the already very degraded and tired Russian units would also not be very coordinated,” the analyst added..

[see_also ids\u003d"

The Kremlin decided that the Belarusian military should take a direct part in the war. Lukashenka is trying to refrain from this step. But the room for maneuver is limited. Read about Putin’s goals, risks for Lukashenka and what Western countries need to do in Vladimir Kravchenko’s article “Will Lukashenka’s troops invade Ukraine”? » to ZN. U.A..