Ukraine won the short war. The mobile and resourceful Ukrainian military has inflicted heavy losses on Russia and thwarted its plans to take Kyiv.. Now the long war has begun. She will suck lives, weapons and money until one of the parties loses the will to fight on.. And so far Moscow is winning this war.

The Economist writes about this, recalling the retreat of Ukrainian defenders from Severodonetsk. Now the Russian invaders are advancing on Lisichansk and in the near future they can take control of the entire Luhansk region. They also threaten Sloviansk, located near the already occupied Donetsk. Kyiv recognizes that the enemy has more weapons and ammunition. And the Ukrainian government says that up to 200 soldiers die every day.

Fortunately for Ukraine, this is not the end. The Russian offensive is slow and very expensive. With NATO-standard weapons, new tactics and sufficient financial assistance, Ukraine has every chance of forcing the Russian army to retreat.. Even if the lost territories are difficult to regain, Ukraine can prove the futility of Vladimir Putin's attack and become a Western-style democratic state.. But for this she needs long-term support.. And she's still questionable.

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Obviously, a long war is more suitable for Russia. Both sides use massive amounts of munitions, but Moscow's stockpile is much larger.. The Russian economy is bigger and in better shape than the Ukrainian one. Seeking victory, Russia is ready to terrorize and demoralize Ukrainians by committing war crimes. And the strike on the shopping center in Kremenchuk this week was an example of such terror.. If necessary, Putin is ready for the suffering of his own people.

However, a long war does not have to be on the terms of a Russian autocrat.. Potentially, Ukraine has a lot of motivated fighters. The Western military industry can provide them with everything they need. In 2020, before the imposition of sanctions, NATO economies were more than 10 times larger than Russia's. The reversal of the situation should begin on the battlefield, where Ukraine should stop the Russian offensive and force the occupiers to retreat. Putin's generals will still have more weapons. But more advanced NATO systems give Ukrainian defenders the ability to strike at greater distances and with greater accuracy..

By adopting tactics developed during the Cold War, when NATO was also outnumbered by the Soviet army, Ukraine will be able to destroy Russian command posts and support centers. Ukraine succeeded when it used NATO weapons to force Russian forces to leave Snake Island. Kyiv should seek to bring the war to a "

If the Russian army begins to lose ground on the battlefield, internal conflicts and discontent could erupt in the Kremlin.. Western intelligence services are convinced that the environment keeps Putin isolated from the truth. The Russian autocrat has a habit of firing his commanders, including General Alexander Dvornikov, who was removed from office after the chaotic first weeks of the war.. The West may raise the cost of a long war for Russia by stepping up sanctions that cause long-term damage to the Russian economy. Europe and the United States can separate the Russian elite from Putin by supporting dissidents in political and business circles and convincing them that the whole future of the country should not be sacrificed to a senseless and expensive war..

Will the West keep this course? At the June 23 summit, the EU granted Ukraine accession candidate status, promising a deeper level of cooperation over the next decade.. At another summit in Germany this week, the G7 nations reaffirmed and tightened sanctions against Russia. And then in Madrid, NATO acknowledged the Russian threat by increasing the military presence of allies on the eastern front..

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But Ukraine is a heavy burden. The Western defense industry is formidable, but it is difficult for them to produce such a large number of products, especially ammunition.. The monthly deficit of the Ukrainian budget is $5 billion. And after the war, the country will need to be restored. Public support for Ukraine in the West under the pressure of many factors: from inflation to elections. In particular, already in 2023, the presidential election race will begin in the United States, in which Donald Trump, a Ukrainophobe and admirer of Putin, is going to participate..

The global cost of a long war will also rise. Putin blocks the export of grain and sunflower oil from Ukrainian ports, provoking unrest and famine in other countries. He is also trying to create a gas shortage in the EU this winter by not allowing Europeans to stock up in the summer.. If unity in Europe falls apart over energy, it will also be lost in the issue of supporting Ukraine.. To make matters worse, some NATO countries fear a Ukrainian victory, expecting Putin to escalate into a catastrophic war with Russia..

Putin's goal is clear. He wants to capture as much of Ukraine as possible, declare victory, and then force Western countries to impose his terms on Kyiv.. In exchange for this, he will agree not to starve the whole world, not to torment with cold and not to threaten with nuclear Armageddon. To agree to this would be a terrible miscalculation.. Ukraine may face constant Russian aggression. The more Putin believes in his success in Ukraine, the more defiant he will become. He described his ambitions in this month's speech, smilingly describing how Peter I captured part of Sweden.. He will use any weapon available to him, including war crimes, nuclear threats, global famine and cold in Europe..

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The best way to prevent another war is to defeat Putin in the one already underway.. Leaders should explain to their peoples that they are defending not just abstract principles in Ukraine, but their own security.. The EU needs to strengthen its energy markets so they don't fall apart next winter. Ukraine should get more weapons. The risk of escalation is very real today. But if a bad peace is imposed on Ukraine, Putin's nuclear threats will not disappear.. They will become even more dangerous, especially if Russian conventional forces are at a disadvantage..

In a long war, ordinary Russians will suffer and Ukrainians will experience untold pain because of Putin's vanity.. To win, it is necessary to concentrate resources and strengthen Ukraine as a viable, sovereign and Western-oriented country. This is the result that the brave Ukrainian people are striving for.. Ukraine and its allies have enough people, money and resources to defeat Putin. But does everyone have the desire to do it?