One of the few routes ships can take through the Arctic is controlled by Russia. But by the middle of this century, melting ice could lead to the emergence of a new route that will be beyond the control of the Russian Federation, New Scientist reports..

The Northern Sea Route stretches from the Kara Sea to the Bering Strait, covering most of the Arctic coast of Russia with a length of 24 thousand kilometers.. Traffic along this route is not currently heavy: the total volume of shipping in the Arctic last year was equivalent to one or two days in the Suez Canal. But melting ice caused by global warming could make Arctic shipping more attractive.. Some polar routes are half the usual.

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One of the obstacles to increasing international traffic on the existing route, which is controlled by Russia, is the large number of fees and restrictions.. According to Amanda Lynch of Brown University in Rhode Island, one shipping operator told her: “We are not afraid of icebergs.. We are afraid of icebergs of Russian paperwork”.

The legal basis for Russia's jurisdiction stems from a provision in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea that gives countries jurisdiction over ice-covered waters within 200 nautical miles (300 kilometers) of their coasts - an area known as the exclusive economic zone.. But as Lynch points out, melting sea ice and rising sea levels have destabilized those boundaries..

Lynch and Charles Norci of the University of Maine modeled how different scenarios of global warming will affect the jurisdiction of the Arctic shipping routes. It turned out that under all but the most controlled emission scenarios, ice melt will open the way over the Northern Sea Route for at least a month a year, starting from 2035-2065, depending on climate change scenarios.

Vessels that will move along this route will not be subject to the restrictions imposed by Russia on the Northern Sea Route. In addition, ordinary ships will be able to navigate it without the help of icebreakers..

At the same time, this will happen on the condition that the Russian Federation and other countries comply with international norms and laws at sea..

“I don’t have much confidence that Russia will stop within their exclusive economic zone in what they consider their rights to enforce their jurisdiction over ice-covered waters,” said Scott Stephenson of the RAND Corporation, an American think tank..

Norchi also emphasizes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed Arctic cooperation, from scientific projects to search and rescue operations.. In March, seven out of eight countries suspended their participation in the Russian-led Arctic Council..

Previously, scientists conducted a study that showed that rain will soon replace snowfall as the most common type of precipitation in the Arctic.. This will happen due to climate change and the heating of the northern polar region of our planet..