When Russia concentrated its military efforts in eastern Ukraine in the spring, senior Joe Biden administration officials said the next 4-6 weeks would determine the course of the war.. And now that time has passed.

Washington now says the picture is getting clearer. Russia is likely to capture more territory. But none of the parties will be able to establish full control over the Donbass. And the Russian army has to face Ukrainian forces that are getting better and better armed.. The New York Times writes about it.

The publication notes that Russia seized more territory in the Luhansk region. But her progress is very slow.. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military is receiving long-range artillery systems and learning how to use them.. This should help Ukraine in the battles ahead, said the Chief of the Joint Staff, General Mark Milley..

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The Pentagon says that Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve the same success in the Donetsk region as it is now in Lugansk. Heavy fighting in the Ukrainian east has been going on for weeks. Kyiv says they are losing about 200 soldiers a day, and Western estimates suggest that Russian casualties are either at the same level or higher.. However, Russia controls roughly the same territory in the Donetsk region as it did before the invasion began in February.. US officials believe that Russia will soon be able to capture the entire Luhansk region. A U.S. defense source told the New York Times that Severodonetsk and Lysichansk "

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Over the weekend, it became known that Russian forces had broken through the defense line in Toshkovka. The capture of the city will allow Russia to threaten the Ukrainian supply lines of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Washington noted that Russian troops are moving very slowly forward. To capture several kilometers of Ukrainian territory, they have to fight hard battles for several weeks.. This may indicate a lack of infantry or additional caution on the part of Moscow after disastrous logistical problems in the first weeks of the war..

Some military analysts say Russia has peaked in combat effectiveness in the east. At this time, Ukraine is still waiting for the supply of long-range artillery from NATO allies.. Pentagon officials expect that when these weapons finally arrive, they will be a game-changer on the battlefield, if not in the Luhansk region, then in the Donetsk region for sure.. Former US Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges said the war will continue for many more months. But, in his opinion, the Ukrainian army, reinforced by heavy artillery from the West, will slow down the Russian offensive and begin to liberate territories at the end of summer..

" And Ukrainians have an advantage in this regard.. I see that the Ukrainian logistics situation is improving every week, while the Russian one will continue to slowly decline. There are no allies or friends in Russia,” Hodges stressed..

The Russian army is built to fight very intense short-term campaigns with heavy use of artillery.. It is not suitable for maintaining an occupation or waging a war of attrition like the one currently underway in eastern Ukraine.. This requires a very large number of ground troops..

“This is a critical period for both sides. Probably in the next two months both armies will be exhausted. Ukraine lacks equipment and ammunition. Russia has already lost most of its fighting strength. Her army is not suitable for a long-term war of this magnitude,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies Program at CNA..

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Analysts believe that Russia will try to capture kilometer by kilometer very slowly and then most likely try to secure its fronts by planting mines to deter a Ukrainian counterattack.. In recent days, neither side has been able to break through the opponent's front. Territories will change hands, but neither army has the mass to take advantage of small wins, said former US Army Ranger and Center for a New American Security analyst Christopher Dougherty.. In his opinion, the war will turn into a test of endurance.

Some independent analysts assumed that the Russian offensive would stop at Severodonetsk.. But US government experts doubt it.. They are convinced that the Russian slow advance will continue, and the Russian army will soon make progress in those regions where Ukrainian counterattacks have been successful.. Other analysts expect territories to change hands along the front lines in the coming months or even years..