War changes a lot. Four months ago, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy did not even think that they would support Ukraine's desire to join the EU.. But on Thursday they arrived in sunny Kyiv for this very reason..

If countries make a positive decision at the EU summit next week after the European Commission's approval recommendation, this could become " This will be the start of a new round of EU enlargement to the east, which will be no less important than the first. Then, for the first time after the Cold War, a number of countries were admitted to the union: from Estonia to Bulgaria. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, "

British historian Timothy Harton Ash writes about this on the pages of The Guardian.. He notes that there are two good reasons to make Ukraine a candidate country for EU membership.. First, because Ukraine deserved it. And secondly, it is in the long-term interests of all Europeans. And the second reason is much more important than the first..

“Ukrainian aspirations to join the EU did not appear yesterday. I will never forget how I stood on the cold Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv during the Orange Revolution in 2004. I have never seen so many EU flags in European capitals. 10 years later, in 2014, protests erupted again in Kyiv when President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the EU. And those protests were dubbed as Euromaidan,” Ash recalls..

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The war only confirmed this long-held desire of the Ukrainian people. From the very beginning, President Zelenskiy has made EU candidate status one of the top three requests to the West at the arms transfer and sanctions level.. The latest polls show that in the central and western regions of Ukraine, 89% of residents support EU accession. No one doubts that Ukrainians are now fighting and dying for Europe. Explaining the positive decision of the European Commission, a high-ranking official from Brussels said: “The Commission has not forgotten that Ukraine is the only country in Europe where people died, where they were shot, just because they took to the streets with EU flags.. We can’t tell them now: sorry, friends, you were holding the wrong flags. ”.

But this is also a strategic choice for Europe as a whole.. The question is not only about the second largest country on the continent. In addition to recommending that Ukraine should receive the status of a candidate country, realizing that certain steps must be taken, the European Commission also offered the same status to Moldova, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania. At the same time, it was noted that Chisinau should make some broad changes. It was also decided to launch the process of negotiations on the accession of Albania and North Macedonia to the EU.. In addition, other countries of the Western Balkans, Georgia, and, possibly, democratic Belarus will join the union.

Done right, this second big eastward enlargement will not only make the EU bigger, it will become self-sufficient in terms of food security, stronger militarily.. It will also increase its potential for economic growth..

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This enlargement of the EU will also require deeper integration. Otherwise, the community of 35 countries will not be able to function.. In the long term, the accession of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to the EU will mean that Russia will finally have to come to terms with the loss of empire and start looking for a new role as a modern nation-state.. The history of Great Britain proves that this process can be very long.. The second major expansion will be the next step towards the creation of a whole and free Europe.

Of course, there will be a lot of " Countries like the Netherlands, Denmark and Portugal are still trying to make it harder, if not block the first step. EU 'Big Three', in which Italy has replaced the UK, could gain the upper hand at next week's summit. But will there be political will to maintain a long-term expansion strategy? The cost of restoring Ukraine will be huge. The damage from the war is already estimated at 150 billion dollars. Ukraine will have a chance to rebuild and become better, but only on the condition that significant financial support from Europe is tied to important reforms, including the fight against corruption.

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There is now broad support for such a policy within the EU.. 66% of European citizens approve of the admission of Ukraine to the European brotherhood, as evidenced by polls in April. On average, 57% of respondents in 10 countries expressed the same position in the latest polls conducted by the European Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFR). But ECFR figures show that support for Ukraine's accession to the EU in France, Germany and Italy is somewhat less than 50%..

The wave of sympathy for Ukraine that arose because of the war is gradually fading. And the whole of Europe is suffering from the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the aggression of Vladimir Putin. Therefore, support may decline in the future.. Mediterranean countries say: \? The plight of countries in the Middle East and Africa, exacerbated by rising food prices due to the Russian war against Ukraine, could provoke a new crisis in the region.

Another threat is that the enlargement of the EU will take place without the necessary deepening of integration.. The same problem was a big drawback of the first wave of expansion.. As a result, Viktor Orban destroyed democracy in Hungary using billions of euros received from EU funds.. And in this he was helped by the requirement that all decisions must receive the unanimous support of all countries.. He also blackmailed the EU with this demand when the countries discussed the latest package of sanctions against Russia..

Ash thinks expansion momentum is likely to fade. Ukraine and Moldova will be in limbo for a long time, as will the countries of the Western Balkans, which have been waiting for the completion of the accession process for almost 20 years. North Macedonia has been waiting for 17 years to join the EU, having received candidate status back in 2005. Negotiations with her were blocked by the efforts of Greece, and later in Bulgaria.

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Macedonians retained hope and continued to seek membership, but in Serbia, support for EU accession fell from 70% to 37%. Local elites in other countries may decide that it is more profitable for them to try to play on three fronts, looking for ways to capitalize on relations with Europe, China and Russia.. This is exactly what Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is doing.. In this case, the eastern and southeastern perimeter of the EU will become unstable. These regions will be infiltrated by China, Russia and other enemy forces.

So the forward movement is chock full of obstacles and possible wrong turns.. However, a journey of tens of thousands of kilometers begins with a single step.. And at least this first step is about to be taken in the right direction..