The North Caucasus pays a blood tax to the federal budget of the Russian Federation.

In the three months that have passed since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, residents of the North Caucasian republics make up a significant number among the dead of Russian military personnel.. At the same time, judging by the number of identified dead, then among all the subjects of the Russian Federation, the highest losses are in Dagestan, and only then - in Buryatia. A month ago, Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the Presidential Administration, estimated the total number of people from the Caucasian republics who participated in the hostilities in Ukraine at about 25 thousand people, of which at least five thousand were killed or injured..

But will the mass deaths of residents of the North Caucasian republics lead to protests against the Kremlin's policies After all, the region has a long history of resistance to the center. Or the population of the North Caucasus will continue to support Putin in his maniacal desire to destroy Ukraine and continue to travel to our country to kill Ukrainians?

Relative stability of the troubled region.

Stability in the North Caucasus rests on financial injections from the federal budget, effective work of law enforcement agencies, personal ties between the leaders of the republics with the Kremlin, inter-clan agreements, population fatigue from two Chechen military campaigns. But this peace is relative: it can end at any moment..

As for the entire Russian Federation, the region is characterized by high unemployment and a vacuum of social lifts, ethnic and clan contradictions, crime and corruption, persecution of dissidents and lack of justice.. But there are significant differences.

“The North Caucasus is characterized by the presence of a large number of young people and dependence on the so-called seasonal work: tens of thousands of men leave their homes to earn money on construction sites, trade... Many enter into contracts for military service: this gives a stable salary. But the main difference of this region is the possibility of group mass mobilization of the population based on a system of clans, clans,” said in an interview with ZN. UA Deputy Director of the Center for Middle East Studies Sergey Danilov.

In turn, speaking about the peculiarities of the North Caucasus, Russian economist Dmitry Potapenko also points to " “It would be illogical for the authorities not to keep the potential situation in check. So they keep it with the help of subsidies, ”the expert notes and draws attention to the fact that in 2021 Chechnya and Dagestan were among the most subsidized regions of Russia..

So, Dagestan received 77.5 billion rubles from the federal budget in 2021. or almost 8% of the total number of subsidies to all Russian regions. In second place was Yakutia with 56 billion rubles, and in third place was Chechnya with 51.8 billion rubles..

At the same time, as the Caucasus. Realii" Five of the seven subjects of the Caucasian Federal District — Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia and Chechnya — are outsiders in terms of the volume of taxes collected. Dagestan, North Ossetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria are also among the worst regions in Russia in terms of the share of the population earning less than the state minimum wage.

Therefore, experts predict that it is primarily the economic crisis and the reduction of subsidies from the federal budget that can lead to the destabilization of the North Caucasus, and not the number of deaths in the war against Ukraine.. But the economic and political situation in Russia does not yet give grounds to predict that in the short term, both in the country as a whole and in the North Caucasus Federal District, mass riots will begin..

On the verge of a systemic crisis.

One of my old acquaintances admitted that he wakes up every morning hoping to hear the news that Putin has died.. And although he understands that the war will not end with the death of the owner of the Kremlin, the personification of evil is so strong that an illusion is created: with the departure of the Russian president, hell will also end.. Alas, he is still alive and, despite the dissatisfaction of the "

However, former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove predicts that Putin could step down from power by next year.. Dirlav suggests that he will soon “probably be sent to a sanatorium, from where he will no longer emerge as the leader of Russia”. (Among the possible successors to Putin, the ex-head of MI6 names a " In turn, the Russian online publication Meduza writes that the Kremlin is behind the scenes discussing the candidacies of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev and First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko.

In Russia itself, despite the sanctions and the death of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, relative economic and political stability remains: the authorities have a high level of support from the population, the situation in the foreign exchange and financial markets has normalized, and there has not been a sharp increase in unemployment. However, this period of stability is short-lived: due to the ongoing war against Ukraine and large-scale sanctions, Russia is on the verge of a systemic crisis, which will manifest itself in the cessation of economic growth and increased tension in society.. And social tension will develop into a political crisis.

“Problems [in Russia due to the war] are already visible, and in the middle of summer they will simply fall from different directions: transport, medicine, even agriculture. No one simply thought of such a scale,” Meduza quoted a source close to the Russian government as saying.. The fact that the Russian economy is waiting for serious tests - its decline and, as a result, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in incomes of the population - is publicly spoken by Russian officials themselves..

Thus, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, notes that the economy is entering a " This period, according to her, will be accompanied by rising prices for certain goods and “inflation above the target.”. The fact that in a year and a half or two years there will be a fall in the Russian economy, says the head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation Alexei Kudrin.

Although Dirlav (as well as the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov) predicts the collapse of the Russian Federation in the coming years, such estimates look overly optimistic. Thanks to energy exports and rising oil and gas prices, the Russian economy is accumulating fat that will allow the country to hold out for some more time.. But supplies are finite. And the West has made a fundamental decision to abandon the use of Russian energy.

Under the weight of economic problems.

Reducing the receipts of petrodollars will fundamentally undermine the Russian economy. “The current regime will collapse on its own under the weight of economic problems,” predicts Russian economist Andrey Yakovlev.. As the economic crisis intensifies, so will the dissatisfaction of Russians. Experts suggest that, most likely, the first mass protests will take place in the North Caucasus or in the depressed regions of the Trans-Urals.

As for the North Caucasus, Danilov believes that the most likely that an explosion will occur in the eastern part of the region, primarily in the multinational Dagestan: “The protests of the inhabitants of this republic can be pushed not so much by a large number of deaths as a result of the war against Ukraine, but by the worsening economic situation.

But in Chechnya, its leader Ramzan Kadyrov will maintain control over the situation and remain loyal to Putin as long as money from the federal budget is regularly flowing into the region. At the same time, Kadyrov established a totalitarian regime and is not subject to federal laws.. In fact, today Chechnya, while formally remaining loyal to Moscow, has achieved greater independence than under Dzhokhar Dudayev..

In such a situation, it is unprofitable for the local elite to aggravate relations with the Kremlin and start a third Chechen war.. Moreover, destabilization carries personal risks for Kadyrov and the “Kadyrovites”: over the years of rule and repression, they have amassed a lot of bloodlines. In the republic itself, they remember independent Ichkeria. “Strongly, strongly (interfering. - AT. )… Because you are Russian… Leave us alone. Well, we want to live separately, ”says a Chechen in a video from the phone of Russian lieutenant Yuri Shalaev, captured in Ukraine, from military unit 71718 stationed in Chechnya.

At the same time, the status of Kadyrov, who is trying to spread his influence outside of Chechnya, irritates Russian security officials, presidential administration officials and members of the government.. But as Oleg Orlov, head of the “Hot Spots” program at the Human Rights Center “Memorial”, notes, it will be difficult to resolve the “Kadyrov issue” in the future.. “As long as Vladimir Putin remains in power, there are levers of pressure on Kadyrov. But when Putin leaves, there will be a problem. One of the claims against the Putin regime is precisely that it has laid a large number of mines under the future of Russia. And Kadyrov, in the form in which he is now, is one of these mines, ”Orlov believes..

But all these medium-term threats. So far, the situation in the North Caucasus does not inspire alarm in the Kremlin..

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