One Hundred Days Ago, Putin Launched His Invasion Of Ukraine Warning Of A Nuclear Strike. While extolling Russia's nuclear arsenal and promising to subjugate Ukraine, he threatened countries that decide to intervene with consequences " Russian TV has been teasing audiences with Armageddon talk ever since..

Thus, Putin has already violated the existing international nuclear order, even if he never uses an atomic bomb in Ukraine.. Following such threats, NATO limited the support it was willing to offer. And it will have consequences. First, vulnerable states that look at the world through the eyes of Ukraine will feel that the best defense against a nuclear aggressor is to have their own weapons.. Second, other nuclear states will believe they can win by copying Putin's tactics.. If so, then someone somewhere is sure to make their threat a reality.. This alignment should not be the devastating legacy of this war..

Nuclear danger was growing even before the invasion. North Korea has dozens of warheads. Iran, the UN said this week, has enough enriched uranium for its first bomb. Although the new Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons will limit the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles of Russia and America until 2026, this treaty does not apply to weapons such as nuclear torpedoes. Pakistan is rapidly replenishing its arsenal. China is modernizing its nuclear forces and, according to the Pentagon, expanding them.

All of this build-up reflects a weakening of the moral rejection that deters the use of nuclear weapons.. As memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki fade, people cannot understand how a detonation of a low-yield nuclear weapon, like the one Putin can launch, can escalate into retaliatory destruction of entire cities.. America and the Soviet Union barely coped with the bilateral nuclear confrontation. And the prospect of many nuclear powers now fighting to keep the peace is worrisome..

Invasion of Ukraine exacerbates this concern. Even if Putin is bluffing, his threats corrode the security guarantees given to non-nuclear states.. In 1994, Ukraine surrendered former Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory in exchange for Russian, American and British assurances that it would not be attacked.. By seizing Crimea and supporting the separatists in the regions of Donbass in 2014, Russia grossly violated this promise.. America and Britain, which were largely left out, also broke their promises..

This gives vulnerable states an additional reason to go nuclear.. Iran may decide that although it will not benefit it in the long term, having the bomb is less of a problem now than it was in the past.. If Iran tests a nuclear bomb, how will Saudi Arabia and Turkey react South Korea and Japan, who have the technology to arm themselves. Such a move by Iran will not inspire the confidence of these countries in the obligations of the West to protect them in a more dangerous world..

Putin's strategy to blackmail with nuclear threats is even more damaging. For decades after World War II, the nuclear powers considered using atomic weapons in combat.. But over the past half century, such warnings have only been issued against countries such as Iraq and North Korea, which have themselves threatened to use weapons of mass destruction.. Putin is notable for blackmailing with nuclear threats to help his invasion forces win a conventional war.

And it seems to have worked. True, NATO support for Ukraine turned out to be stronger than expected. But the Alliance is hesitant to send " While U.S. President Joe Biden has sent a huge amount of weapons, this week he refrained from providing missiles capable of striking deep into Russia.. Some other countries in NATO seem to think that Ukraine should settle the issue with Russia, because Putin's defeat could put him in a corner with dire consequences..

This logic sets a dangerous precedent. China could set similar conditions if it attacked Taiwan, claiming that the island is already Chinese territory.. Thus, a greater number of states can begin to accumulate combat nuclear potential and weapons. This would be a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, under which countries undertake to work in the interests of disarmament.

The damage done by Putin will be hard to undo. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force last year and is supported by 86 states, calls for the reduction of nuclear weapons.. However, countries that possess such weapons are afraid of becoming more vulnerable, even if collective disarmament may make sense..

Rigorous verification and control of nuclear weapons deserves attention and needs to be implemented. Russia may be wary of this, but its resources to carry out these tasks are diminishing. America could give up its ground-launched missiles without compromising its security in exchange for cuts from Russia. The two sides could agree on technical measures, such as refraining from attacking nuclear warhead control and communications infrastructure in a conventional conflict.. Ultimately, the goal should be to bring China into these negotiations..

These talks will be easier if Putin's nuclear tactics fail, starting with ensuring he doesn't strike Ukraine.. Biden wrote this week that America found no Russian preparations.. However, countries such as China, India, Israel and Turkey that have access to the Kremlin should warn Putin of the fury they will unleash on Russia if, God forbid, he does use nuclear weapons..

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Saving Ukraine from a nuclear attack is necessary, but not enough. The world also needs to make sure that Putin does not thrive on his aggression today, as he did in 2014.. If he sees that his tactics worked, he will threaten with nuclear weapons even more in the future.. This will happen if he decides that NATO can be intimidated. And it will be more difficult to convince him that he should retreat.. Other countries and autocrats will learn from him. Therefore, Ukraine needs advanced weapons, economic assistance and sanctions against Russia to force Putin's army to retreat..

Those countries that see this as only a fleeting European struggle are neglecting their own security.. And those who, in the name of peace, can no longer be wrong, that Ukraine needs a truce with Russia right now, so as not to get bogged down in a war “which it cannot win,” in a war with an enemy that has already lost its sting..

If Putin thought NATO lacked resolve, Russia would remain dangerous. If he were convinced that his nuclear threats were a choice between defeat and a face-saving stalemate, Russia would be more dangerous than ever..

Earlier it was reported that Europe after the war in Ukraine will have to build its own nuclear deterrence. Whatever happens next in Ukraine, the world that existed before February 24 is no more, a new dangerous era has come in which you will have to learn how to live.