World leaders are still struggling to cope with preparing for a new era of risk to humanity, in which profound environmental and security crises collide and intensify, says a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The Environment of the World report is the most comprehensive report to date on how various aspects of the environmental crisis, including climate change, mass extinction and resource scarcity, are superimposed on bleak security prospects and other factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic..

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“Our new report for policy makers goes beyond simply demonstrating that environmental change can increase risks to peace and security.. It is a fact. Our research reveals the complexity and breadth of these relationships, and the many forms they can take.. And most importantly, we show what can be done with it; how can we ensure peace and security in a new age of risk,” said SIPRI Director and report author Dan Smith.

Double crisis and complex risks.

Report talks about security crisis. Thus, it notes that from 2010 to 2020 the number of armed conflicts at the state level has almost doubled (to 56), as well as the number of deaths as a result of them.. The number of refugees and other internally displaced people also doubled to 86.2 million. In 2020, the number of deployed nuclear warheads increased after several years of cuts, and in 2021 military spending exceeded $2 trillion.

Regarding the ecological crisis, about a quarter of all species are threatened with extinction, the number of pollinators is rapidly declining, soil quality is deteriorating, and forest use and fishing are at an unsustainable level.. Climate change is causing extreme weather events to become more frequent, reducing crop yields and increasing the risk of crop failures.

And these two crises are starting to overlap in different parts of the world.. For example, in Somalia, prolonged drought and other effects of climate change, combined with poverty and a weak government, are pushing people into the lava of the extremist group Al-Shabaab.. In Central America, the impact of climate change on crops, combined with violence and corruption, has increased the number of people trying to migrate to the US border.

Russia's attack on Ukraine jeopardized the world's wheat supply, as Ukraine produces a third of the world's wheat. Due to Russian-blocked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, the shortage of Ukrainian grain on the world market will lead to a global food panic. Food prices could rise by 20-30%.

Collaboration has become the new realism.

The past decade has been marked by growing geopolitical tensions, smoldering and sometimes flaring disputes between major states and blocs, and the rise of populism.. But the authors of the report insist that cooperation is needed to combat the environmental and security crisis, and the risks that their combination creates..

“No government can protect the well-being of its citizens from the escalation of global crises without international cooperation. We must urgently find ways to cooperate to address common environmental security threats, even in today's toxic geopolitical landscape.. Despite global threats, cooperation is a self-interest. Essentially, collaboration is the new realism,” said Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and member of the World Environment Advisory Group..

The pandemic has shown the need to prepare for the unexpected.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need to prepare for events whose consequences can be devastating, although time and nature may be implicit.

Scientists give the example of South Korea, which, guided by the experience of combating SARS, was able to reduce the death rate from coronavirus to 10% compared to countries with a similar population. This not only saved lives, but also avoided many of the economic and social consequences that were felt in other countries that neglected to prepare despite warnings about the risk of a pandemic..

Peaceful and honest transformations are needed.

To cope with climate change and the broader environmental crisis, governments around the world need to make a comprehensive transformation in energy and land use. Keeping the average temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set by the Paris Agreement, implies reaching zero carbon emissions worldwide within 30 years. In the field of biodiversity protection, a 30 by 30 plan was discussed - protecting 30% of species by 2030.

The authors of the report insist that these initiatives must succeed because of the high security risks that would ensue if they fail.. But change at this scale and pace is bound to come with risks.. For example, the use of hydroelectric dams may become a new source of risk, as their construction has led to the displacement of 80 million people worldwide..

“We must learn from the mistakes of the past so as not to repeat them on a much larger scale.. Saving must occur, but it cannot be forced. A fast transition to zero carbon is necessary, but it must be done fairly. Tackling the environmental crisis must go hand in hand with justice, equity and rights, building peace, not undermining it,” said Jeff Dabelko, one of the lead authors of the report and professor at the School of Leadership and Public Service.. Voinovich Ohio University.

Investment in the world, not risks.

At the moment, governments spend between five and seven trillion dollars a year on activities that can harm the environment.. For example, fossil fuel extraction, deforestation and harmful fishing. Promises were made to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, but they were often not kept..

Scientists insist that governments should redirect funding from industries that undermine peace to those that can ensure its sustainable development. At the same time, the marginalized segments of the population, as well as those who are most affected by this problem, should be included in the decision-making process..