No one knows how and when the war in Ukraine will end. But it is already clear that Russia is not winning. According to Western government and private analyzes, Moscow has failed to achieve its primary goal of a lightning strike on Kyiv to topple the Ukrainian government..

And the success of the Russian plan " Things that at the beginning of a full-scale war seemed very likely, in particular, the fall of the Ukrainian state, are now unlikely.. Ukraine is fighting for its survival, so it will survive, Chief of Staff of the British Armed Forces Admiral Tony Radakin said during a speech in London.

The Wall Street Journal writes that during the new phase of the war, tank battles are suppressed by artillery fire.. In some places, the Russian army goes on the defensive. She finally managed to take full control of Mariupol. But in many other areas Ukraine goes on the counterattack, in particular, in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told his EU counterparts that the war is entering a " And many signs indicate that Russia is preparing for such a " In particular, it performs engineering and fortification works in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.. The Wall Street Journal lists five potential outcomes of the war in Ukraine. Some of them are more likely, according to experts, while others are the other way around..

Russia will collapse.

The extremely motivated, well-armed and tactically flexible Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to successfully take advantage of the weaknesses of the Russian army.. Russia suffered from poor logistics and also failed to coordinate the various elements of its invasion.. Russian equipment is in poor condition, Russian soldiers are poorly trained and also suffer from low morale. Western analysts point out that the Russian army not only suffered tens of thousands of losses, its officer corps was also greatly weakened.

Most Western analysts believe Russia's Plan B progress is much slower than Moscow had hoped. Her apparent plan to cordon off the Ukrainian military seems out of reach. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use Western howitzers M777, as well as other weapons.. Pentagon says military aid is already making an impact on the battlefield.

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Some analysts argue that the greatest success of the Russian army is that it has not yet collapsed..

“We have to agree that the Russians did a good job keeping their army intact under the pressure it was under,” said Lawrence Freedman, professor of military studies at King’s College London, adding that “armies can be fragile.”.

Western intelligence notes that quite a few Russian soldiers refuse to go into battle. Also, Russian units defeated near Kyiv are again thrown into battle.. They are often filled with poorly trained recruits.. British military intelligence notes that the use of auxiliary forces, including from Chechnya, has further complicated the coordination of Russian troops..

“I think the scenario that has been underestimated is the possibility of a Russian collapse,” said Eliot Cohen, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington..

This collapse may be due to the mass refusal of Russian soldiers to go into battle, desertion or a chaotic retreat.. Cohen notes that even smaller problems can have big consequences for Moscow.

“In my opinion, at a certain fundamental level, Putin has already lost. It’s hard for me personally to imagine that he could hold power for a long time,” the expert added..

Failure of Ukraine?

While the losses of the Russian army caused by Ukrainian forces have been well documented, there is less information about the state of the Ukrainian army.. Publicly available information says that Ukraine has lost many soldiers and a lot of equipment. But according to Western estimates, the scale is much smaller than that of Russia. According to NATO, by the end of March, Moscow had lost about 40,000 troops.. This figure includes the dead, wounded and prisoners..

The occupation of Mariupol was a long-awaited victory for Russia. Ukrainian defenders defended for three months at the Azovstal plant. Also, the Russian army is putting pressure on the Ukrainian defense near the cities of Severodonetsk and Liman in the Donbass.. Without accurate data on the loss of personnel and equipment, analysts cannot say anything about the state of the Ukrainian army.. So they look for other clues. One of the indicators that experts pay attention to is how the Ukrainian military is fighting..

“Are they fighting competently and intelligently? Were any errors found ” - Phillips O'Brian, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, explained the approach, adding that he did not see such signs.

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The effectiveness of Ukrainian forces will also be enhanced by weapons coming from the West.. Former RUSI think tank director Michael Clarke said U.S. President Joe Biden's appeal to Congress for $33 billion in long-term military aid says he's going to do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine from falling..

“This greatly reduces the likelihood that Ukraine will be able to break,” he said..

“I don’t think that the collapse of Ukraine is possible. I would completely rule out such a course of events. She has motivation and momentum,” added Lawrence Friedman of King’s College London..

The quagmire of war.

Wars often reach a stalemate where neither side can afford to lose.. Western officials have warned that the war in Ukraine could last a year or longer.

“Wars are often a process of competitive collapse, with the side that can endure the longest, even if it suffers the most, wins.. This is exactly what happened in 1918,” Cohen said, referring to the First World War..

He added that the war could indeed reach a stalemate if one considered that “Russia can dig in and gain a foothold well, and replenish all the heavy losses that it has suffered.”. But, according to Cohen, this is unlikely to happen.. A more likely scenario is that the Ukrainian army will take advantage of its mobility and tactical advantage, choosing places to attack and break through Russian defensive lines..

Several other analyzes suggest that if Ukraine can sustain the current Russian offensive in Donbas, the Ukrainian counter-offensive will intensify in the next few weeks.. Consequently, a new critical phase of the war will begin. Clark is convinced that the Russian army is too small to achieve even its reduced goals in Ukraine. The key long-term challenge for Moscow is to achieve fruitful mobilization of another 150-180 thousand soldiers. Given that new recruits need to be prepared, such replacements will not arrive on the battlefield until the end of the year..

“If Russia has a large mobilized army next year, then the stalemate scenario will be fulfilled,” Clarke said..

Ukraine is advancing.

By sending its troops to the east and southeast, Russia tried to conduct a phased offensive. At the same time, she sometimes hastily uses those units that were ousted from the vicinity of Kyiv, instead of wasting time and gathering significant forces..

“It looks like the Russian offensive will fade away soon.. At some point, the Russians will stop moving forward. And then the question will be whether the Ukrainians will be able to push them back,” O’Brien said..

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Western analysts say Western weapons will become essential at this stage. A senior Pentagon official said Ukraine has already deployed 74 of the 90 M777 howitzers donated by the US to forward positions in the east.. The long range of these howitzers allows the Ukrainian army to attack Russian forces without being exposed to Russian fire.. Ukraine is also receiving other important Western weapons, such as Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost drones..

“The combination of drones and artillery is quite powerful,” says Friedman..

If the Ukrainian forces really go on the offensive, then the question will be where they will stop.. The minimum goal for Kyiv is to return to the control line that existed on February 23, the day before the Russian full-scale invasion. Thus, the two enclaves in Donbas and Crimea, annexed in 2014, will remain under Moscow’s control..

Analysts say if Ukrainian counter-offensive succeeds, stopping it will be a political challenge for Volodymyr Zelensky. There will be a temptation to push Russian troops even further. Offensive operations are much more difficult to carry out than to hold the defense. And breaking through part of the Donbass and Crimea, where Russian troops have long been entrenched, will be very ambitious for the Ukrainian military.. External pressure on Zelenskiy to hold back offensive is likely to intensify. This will especially be done by the leaders of Europe.

“At the point where Western allies are divided over whether we want to win the war or just end it, it will become harder for Ukrainians to move forward,” Clarke said..

Escalation.

Many discussions in the West, especially in Europe, before the start of the war, were that Putin should have a clear way out of the situation.. Some analysts now fear the stymied autocrat may escalate even further. For example, he may decide to use tactical or chemical weapons on the battlefield.. Western analysts say such a development is possible but unlikely. Even if limited-yield nuclear weapons are used, the war will not automatically escalate into an intercontinental ballistic missile exchange between Russia and the West.

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If Moscow uses tactical nuclear weapons, it will break the taboo that has existed since 1945. Cohen admits that Putin's subordinates may slow down the implementation of the order to use such weapons, realizing what the consequences will be.. The international community will condemn such an act of Moscow, further isolate the Russian economy, in particular, apply secondary sanctions. They will hit not only the Russian elites, but also many companies still operating on Russian territory..

Analysts say the main argument against the use of nuclear weapons is the fact that they will not provide any advantage in war.. Since the troops of both sides are very close to each other. And the Ukrainian army does not accumulate in large groups.

" More of these limited nukes would create too much contamination.. And besides, there is a risk of destroying your own people,” Friedman said..

Chemical weapons are hard to control. You can poison your own soldiers, making them even more ineffective. Another way to use such ammunition is to use it away from the battlefield in civilian areas.. So Moscow can try to either pressure Kyiv to make concessions, or push Western governments to force Ukraine to agree to peace on Russian terms.. All this is hypothetically possible, but, according to analysts, is unlikely..

The use of weapons of mass destruction will involve the West even more in the conflict. It is unlikely that the West will decide on a nuclear response. But a military response by non-nuclear means is quite possible. The current red line drawn in the West does not allow closing the Ukrainian sky. However, after the use of weapons of mass destruction, this will become possible.. Cohen believes that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation could become a potential target for Western military. Given that the Russian Air Force has not been able to establish its dominance in Ukraine, Moscow would have acted foolishly if it provoked a direct clash with the US Air Force or other Western countries.. But this raises the question of how sane Putin is..

“If Putin wants to do something completely reckless, he can do it.. But that doesn't mean we have a rational way to stop it,"