Blood cancer? Parkinson's disease? Protracted COVID-19? Since the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, various gossip has been spreading about the state of health of Vladimir Putin. In addition to all possible illnesses, there are those who allow the overthrow of his regime through a coup in the Kremlin.

But all these discussions inevitably lead to one question: what will actually happen if Putin dies tomorrow Who in Russia will take power into their own hands? And how will this affect the war in Ukraine, relations with the West and, in general, the political situation in the world?

Focus magazine writes that on paper the situation is quite clear.. If Putin dies, resigns or is removed from power, according to the Russian constitution, the prime minister must temporarily lead the country. Elections for a new president to be held in three months. In the West, few people even know the name of the Russian Prime Minister. His name is Mikhail Mishustin. He is 56 years old, he is married, has three sons, and together with Putin founded the amateur " Prior to his appointment as prime minister in January 2020, Mishustin headed the Russian tax service for 10 years.. However, Mishustin has no chance to keep power in his hands after Putin's death..

“He is a capable technocrat, but without political power at home,” says political scientist and professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck Gerhard Mangott..

Marina Henke, professor of international relations at the Gerty School in Berlin, also does not believe that Mishustin can replace the Russian autocrat in the Kremlin.. The scenario in which Putin's formal successor actually takes his place is very unlikely.

" The whole system is tied exclusively to Putin himself,” Henke explained..

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Experts believe that if someone from Putin's entourage wants to take power into their own hands, a big battle will begin in the Kremlin..

“No matter who comes to power after Putin, most likely he will not have enough support in various security services, among the military, and also among the oligarchs,” Henke said..

Every potential contender will be ambiguous. And he will have to fight for a chair in the Kremlin. If someone from Putin’s entourage declares himself the new president, there will definitely be someone who will say: “It can’t be that of all it was you who got power.”. And then, in a certain sense, the “palace massacre” will begin. Focus lists the names of those who, according to the publication, may try to replace Putin.

One of these potential contenders may be Moscow Mayor Sergei Sabyanin.. When Putin temporarily stepped down as prime minister in 2008, Sobyanin was deputy prime minister.. However, according to Mangott, the mayor of Moscow does not have much support outside the Russian capital.. After all, in other regions, voters despise the " Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may also try to become president of Russia after Putin. The occupation of Crimea and the invasion of Syria brought him popularity.

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However, the failure of the Russian attempt to quickly conquer Ukraine undermined the position of Shoigu. And that won't let him take the presidency. The name of the former head of the GRU, Alexei Dyumin, also appears from time to time in discussions of potential successors to Putin.. After all, he was one of the leaders of the operation to occupy Crimea in 2014.. Putin even awarded him the title of " However, in 2016, Dyumin moved into regional politics.. So experts doubt that he will try to take a swing at the Kremlin.

Political scientist Gerhard Mangott believes that any possible successor to Putin is unlikely to be able to deal with the legacy of a cruel predecessor and normalize relations with the West..

“Putin’s resignation will eliminate an aggressive, authoritarian and paranoid president. But we cannot expect that someone more acceptable will come to power,” the expert explained..